LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS – AKA – VRTRADER.COM – TURNAROUND TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2026
https://talkdigitalnetwork.substack.com/p/mark-leibovit-can-government-manipulation
October 2026 Stock Market Sell-Off: Probability Assessment
Market assessment as of October 12, 2026, after the U.S. close
My assessment: The probability of an October correction is elevated, particularly during October 13–30. I favor a pullback over an outright crash, but the combination of rising Treasury yields, inflation concerns, expensive technology stocks, and geopolitical tensions creates a potentially dangerous environment.
Estimated probabilities through October 30
Subjective scenario estimates, not statistically calibrated forecasts. S&P 500 declines measured from its October 12 close of 7,807.24; scenarios are mutually exclusive.
Market holds or advances
Less than 3% decline
30%
Mild pullback
3–5% decline
30%
Significant correction
5–10% decline
27%
Severe sell-off
More than 10% decline
13%
Probability of 5%+ decline
40%
Probability of 10%+ decline
13%
These estimates represent my risk-weighted judgment, not a mathematical prediction. They are based on current market conditions and can change substantially following inflation releases and earnings.
Where the market stands
| Index | October 12 close | Daily change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,807.24 | −0.06% |
| Dow Jones | 51,850.55 | +0.38% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,245.90 | −0.44% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,794.48 | −0.45% |
The S&P 500 is still up approximately 14% year to date, but weakness in semiconductors and declining Nasdaq breadth suggest underlying vulnerability.
Reuters
+1
S&P 500 […]
LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS – AKA VRTRADER.COM – MONDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2026
Monday, October 12, 2026, is Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples’ Day, a federal holiday.
However, the U.S. stock market will be open for regular trading.
| Market | Monday, October 12 |
|---|---|
| NYSE |
Open
|
| Nasdaq |
Open
|
| CME stock index futures |
Open
|
| U.S. Treasury cash bond market |
Closed
|
| Federal Reserve banks |
Closed
|
Important for Monday’s trading: With the Treasury cash market closed, bond-market liquidity and participation may be reduced. Stock trading volume may also be lighter than normal.
The next scheduled U.S. stock market holiday is Thanksgiving, November 26.
So Monday’s stock market outlook remains relevant, although the holiday could influence trading conditions.
https://talkdigitalnetwork.substack.com/p/mark-leibovit-can-government-manipulation
October 2026 Stock Market Sell-Off: Probability Assessment
As of October 11, 2026 | S&P 500 outlook
My working assessment is that the probability of an October stock market correction is meaningful, particularly during the second half of the month.
I would distinguish between an ordinary pullback of 3%–5%, a more serious correction of 5%–10%, and a sharp sell-off exceeding 10%.
October’s reputation for crashes is well established, but historically it has not been the worst month for average stock market returns. The more important […]
