Newsletters, Reports, Updates, and Alerts from a Top Market Timer with 45 Years of Experience

https://www.howestreet.com/2024/10/will-chinas-stimulus-blitz-help-us-markets-mark-leibovit/

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Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter, still believes the market has hit a short-term cycle peak.

“I'm not aggressive here,” he said. “I've been hedging on the short side a little bit as well, on and off, but I was looking at about a $2,700 target and
we got pretty close. I just think we may have run out of steam here a little bit, short-term.

“Cyclically, we may have exhausted the time for further advance, but I’m not a bear, I’m just cautious here,” Leibovit added. “I’m not adding positions,
and I had a couple of hedges on inverse gold and silver ETFs. I'm keeping the core long positions. I'm not out of the market, but I just feel like I
wouldn't be establishing new long positions here.”

Leibovit said he doesn’t subscribe to the view that a stronger dollar will necessarily mean lower gold prices. “I'm in a whole different camp with the
dollar and gold,” he said. “I think the dollar and gold go up together, I don't think there's an inverse relationship. I think when central banks are out
there acquiring gold, they have to do it in dollars, and that drives the dollar up. I'm in the bullish dollar and gold scenario until we get an eventual
blow-off in gold, wherever that number is. Whether it's $3,000, $5,000, whatever the eventual top is, the dollar should remain strong during that period
and maybe after that.”

Leibovit believes that the market is rallying for two primary reasons. “One, you've got the perception that lower interest rates are bullish,” he said. “I
don't necessarily agree with that, it can mean that the Fed's seeing a recession ahead and they're trying to be proactive. But the street feels that's
bullish, so I'll give them credit for that.”

“I think the bigger motivation for the market going up is the acts on the part of China,” he said. “They’re becoming more aggressive and playing with the
money supply over there and changing their fiscal and monetary direction. I think that’s a big boost to the market and going forward. It makes me a little
less bearish about the market, if China is going to be involved, which was a drag pretty much the world economy for many months.”

“I think between the perception of lower interest rates on the part of the Fed and the action of China, [those are] more bullish for the markets than any
of the government statistics that you're going to be hearing about.”

Leibovit did caution that it’s only early October, and there could still be surprises in store. “We still have the war in the Mid-East, and we’ve got the
election,” he said. “Who knows what's going to happen the first week of November? There still could be some volatility in the market over the next 30
days, so I wouldn't be sticking my neck out too far in any markets right here.”

Leibovit added that the BRICS summit is also coming up at the end of October, and it represents another risk for the gold market.

“They want to add back gold with the new currency,” he said. “They’re meeting in Russia, and of course Putin is a big buyer of gold himself, and a big
supporter of the organization. That's why I'm not selling gold. I'm just hedging a little bit here, not chasing it. But that certainly is an ingredient to
hold it up here.”

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BULL TRAP CONDITION CONTINUES TO EXIST DESPITE WHAT YOU HEAR IN THE MEDIA

DANGER DANGER WILL ROBINSON

 

Inflation is not caused by the actions of private citizens, but by the government: by an artificial expansion of the money supply required to support deficit spending. No private embezzlers or bank robbers in history have ever plundered people's savings on a scale comparable to the plunder perpetrated by the fiscal policies of statist governments.

~ Ayn Rand

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Stocks Climb Higher On Upbeat Jobs Data; Dow Hits New Record Closing High

U.S. stocks rallied on Friday, lifting the major averages to a firm close, as upbeat non-farm payroll data helped offset concerns about Middle East
tensions and prompted investors to indulge in some brisk buying at several counters from across various sectors.

The Dow settled at a fresh record high at 42,352.75, gaining 341.16 points or 0.81 percent, the S&P 500 closed up 51.13 points or 0.9 percent at 5,751.07,
and the Nasdaq climbed 219.37 points or 1.22 percent to settle at 18,137.85.

NVIDIA Corporation, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Berkshire Hathway, JP Morgan Chase, Exxon Mobil, Oracle Corporation, Bank of America, Netflix, Salesforce,
IBM, GE Aerospace, American Express, Morgan Stanley, Walt Disney, Uber Technologies and Starbucks Corporation climbed 1 to 4 percent.

Data from the Labor Department showed that non-farm payroll employment jumped by 254,000 jobs in September after climbing by an upwardly revised 159,000
jobs in August. Economists had expected employment to rise by 140,000 jobs compared to the addition of 142,000 jobs originally reported for the previous
month.

The report also showed the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent in September from 4.2 percent in August. Economists had expected the unemployment
rate to remain unchanged.

The stronger than expected jobs growth eased concerns about the economic outlook, but dashed hopes of aggressive rate cuts in the coming months.

Following the jobs data, CME Group's FedWatch Tool is indicating a 91.2% the Fed will lower rates by a quarter point in November and just a 8.8% chance of
another half point rate cut.

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The stronger than expected jobs data has raised grounds for an argument for a smaller rate cut at the next Fed decision in November, according to Bill
Adams, Chied Economist for Comercia Bank (Dallas, TX).

Gina Bolvin, President of Bolvin Wealth Management Group (Boston, MA) is of the view that the strong jobs report lowers expectations for a 0.5 percent
basis point cut in November. Bolvin says that with oil prices surging higher due to Middle East tensions, and average hourly earnings rising, the Fed may
worry about inflation rearing its ugly head.

Jamie Cox, Managing Partner for Harris Financial Group, is also of the view that it will be hard to justify a 0.5 percent rate cut in November with
employment data like this. Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist for LPL Financial feels the solid jobs data increases the odds that the economy will continue to
grow above the trend in the next quarter, and that the Fed will cut by a quarter point at the next few meetings.

In overseas trading, Asian stocks ended mixed on Friday as Middle East tensions persisted and investors looked ahead to the all-important U.S. jobs report
later in the day that could decide the path of U.S. interest rates.

European stocks ended higher on Friday with investors cheering upbeat U.S. jobs data. Geopolitical tensions persisted, but that did not deter investors
from picking up several frontline stocks.

In addition to reacting to U.S. jobs data and following geopolitical news, investors also digested a slew of economic data from the European region.

The pan European Stoxx 600 climbed 0.44 percent. Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 gained 0.55 percent, and 0.85%, respectively. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 edged
down slightly.

 

 

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Yes, that's a cartoon of me.  Louis Rukeyser had us dressed up in 'elf' costumes on the screen broadcast each week.  I've dated myself. That occurred for me between 1988-1996.  Lou didn't like any bearish comments, so myself and other elves got dumped in 1996.  

WHO am I?

MARK LEIBOVIT is Chief Market Strategist for LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS  a/k/a VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (TM) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.

Mark's extensive media television profile includes seven years as a consultant ‘Elf’ on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week” television program, and over thirty years as a Market Monitor guest for PBS “The Nightly Business Report”.  He also has appeared on Fox Business News, CNBC, BNN (Canada), and Bloomberg, and has been interviewed in Barrons, Business Week, Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks.

In the January 2, 2020 edition of TIMER DIGEST MAGAZINE, Mark Leibovit was ranked the #1 U.S. Stock Market Timer and was previously ranked  #1 Intermediate U.S. Market Timer for the ten year period December, 1997 to 2007.

He was a 'Market Maker' on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Midwest Options Exchange and then went on to work in the Research department of two Chicago based brokerage firms.  Mr. Leibovit now publishes a series of newsletters at www.LeibovitVRNewsletters.com.   He became a member of the Market Technicians Association in 1982.

Mr. Leibovit’s specialty is Volume Analysis and his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. He has historical experience recognizing, bull and bear markets and signaling alerts prior to market crashes. His indicator is currently available on the Metastock platform.

His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis, The Trader’s Book of Volume published by McGraw-Hill is a definitive guide to volume trading.  It is now also published in Chinese.  Mark has appeared in speaking engagements and seminars in the U.S. and Canada.

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• Donations to LGBTQIA+ organizations

  Some shareholders have argued that Disney's donations to organizations that serve the LGBTQIA+ community are "extreme pursuits" that ignore the beliefs of most Americans.

• Inclusion of LGBTQ+ characters

  Some critics have taken issue with Disney's inclusion of LGBTQ+ characters and elements in stories, such as a same-sex kiss in Lightyear and a nonbinary character in Elemental.

• Black Ariel in Little Mermaid

  Some critics have taken issue with the inclusion of a Black Ariel in the recent Little Mermaid.

• Economic and reputational consequences

  Some claim that Disney's "woke virtue signaling" has had economic and reputational consequences, with Disney's market cap falling nearly 40% since February 2021. 

In response to these criticisms, Disney CEO Bob Iger has said that: 

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RFK Jr. Shreds Democrats for Abandoning Democracy

https://tinyurl.com/24sh92xa

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I USE JOEL WALLACH'S SUPPLEMENTS EVERY DAY.  MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A LINK TO PURCHASE THEM HERE

[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

 

https://www.howestreet.com/2024/10/will-chinas-stimulus-blitz-help-us-markets-mark-leibovit/

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BULL TRAP CONDITION CONTINUES TO EXIST DESPITE WHAT YOU HEAR IN THE MEDIA

DANGER DANGER WILL ROBINSON

 

Inflation is not caused by the actions of private citizens, but by the government: by an artificial expansion of the money supply required to support deficit spending. No private embezzlers or bank robbers in history have ever plundered people's savings on a scale comparable to the plunder perpetrated by the fiscal policies of statist governments.

~ Ayn Rand

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U.S. Stocks Continue To Experience Choppy Trading Before Closing Modestly Lower

Following the lackluster performance seen during trading on Wednesday, stocks continued to experience choppy trading during Thursday's session. The major averages once again spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line.

The major averages eventually finished the day modestly lower. While the Nasdaq edged down 6.65 points or less than a tenth of a percent to 17,918.48, the S&P 500 slipped 9.60 points or 0.2 percent to 5,699.94 and the narrower Dow fell 184.93 points or 0.4 percent to 42,011.59.

The lack of direction on Wall Street came as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the release of the Labor Department's highly anticipated monthly jobs report on Friday.

Economists currently expect the report to show employment rose by 140,000 jobs in September after climbing by 142,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2 percent.

The data could impact the outlook for the U.S. economy as well as expectations regarding how aggressively the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates.

With the jobs data looming, CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 65.4 percent chance the Fed will lower rates by a quarter point and a 34.6 percent chance of another half point rate cut.

A day ahead of the release of the more closely watched monthly jobs report, the Labor Department released a report this morning showing an uptick by first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended September 28th.

Traders also kept an eye on the latest developments in the Middle East, where an escalating conflict has contributed to a sharp increase by the price of crude oil.

The Israel Defense Forces said around 100 projectiles were launched from Lebanon into Israel earlier today, while the IDF also said they have killed several Hezbollah commanders in a strike on a military structure in southern Lebanon.

The latest developments come following Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this week, with Israel vowing a "very strong" response.

Sector News

Gold stocks saw substantial weakness on the day, dragging the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index down by 2.0 percent. The weakness in the sector came despite amodest increase by the price of gold.

Significant weakness was also visible among airline stocks, as reflected by the 1.4 percent loss posted by the NYSE Arca Airline Index.

Steel, networking and biotechnology stocks also showed notable moves to the downside, while energy stocks moved sharply higher along with the price of crude oil.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region turned in another mixed performance during trading on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index surged by 2.0 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slumped by 1.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets all moved to the downside on the day. While the French CAC 40 Index slumped by 1.3 percent, the German DAX Index slid by 0.8 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index edged down by 0.1 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries extended the downward move seen in the previous session. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, advanced 6.5 basis points to 3.850 percent.

Looking Ahead

Trading on Friday is likely be driven by reaction to the Labor Department's monthly jobs reports and its impact on the outlook for the economy and interest rates.

The union representing 45,000 striking U.S. dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports has reached a deal to suspend their strike until Jan. 15 to provide time to negotiate a new contract, a person briefed on the matter says.

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Yes, that's a cartoon of me.  Louis Rukeyser had us dressed up in 'elf' costumes on the screen broadcast each week.  I've dated myself. That occurred for me between 1988-1996.  Lou didn't like any bearish comments, so myself and other elves got dumped in 1996.  

WHO am I?

MARK LEIBOVIT is Chief Market Strategist for LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS  a/k/a VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (TM) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.

Mark's extensive media television profile includes seven years as a consultant ‘Elf’ on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week” television program, and over thirty years as a Market Monitor guest for PBS “The Nightly Business Report”.  He also has appeared on Fox Business News, CNBC, BNN (Canada), and Bloomberg, and has been interviewed in Barrons, Business Week, Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks.

In the January 2, 2020 edition of TIMER DIGEST MAGAZINE, Mark Leibovit was ranked the #1 U.S. Stock Market Timer and was previously ranked  #1 Intermediate U.S. Market Timer for the ten year period December, 1997 to 2007.

He was a 'Market Maker' on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Midwest Options Exchange and then went on to work in the Research department of two Chicago based brokerage firms.  Mr. Leibovit now publishes a series of newsletters at www.LeibovitVRNewsletters.com.   He became a member of the Market Technicians Association in 1982.

Mr. Leibovit’s specialty is Volume Analysis and his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. He has historical experience recognizing, bull and bear markets and signaling alerts prior to market crashes. His indicator is currently available on the Metastock platform.

His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis, The Trader’s Book of Volume published by McGraw-Hill is a definitive guide to volume trading.  It is now also published in Chinese.  Mark has appeared in speaking engagements and seminars in the U.S. and Canada.

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• Donations to LGBTQIA+ organizations

  Some shareholders have argued that Disney's donations to organizations that serve the LGBTQIA+ community are "extreme pursuits" that ignore the beliefs of most Americans.

• Inclusion of LGBTQ+ characters

  Some critics have taken issue with Disney's inclusion of LGBTQ+ characters and elements in stories, such as a same-sex kiss in Lightyear and a nonbinary character in Elemental.
• Black Ariel in Little Mermaid

  Some critics have taken issue with the inclusion of a Black Ariel in the recent Little Mermaid.

• Economic and reputational consequences

  Some claim that Disney's "woke virtue signaling" has had economic and reputational consequences, with Disney's market cap falling nearly 40% since February 2021. 

In response to these criticisms, Disney CEO Bob Iger has said that: 

---

RFK Jr. Shreds Democrats for Abandoning Democracy

https://tinyurl.com/24sh92xa

---

I USE JOEL WALLACH'S SUPPLEMENTS EVERY DAY.  MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A LINK TO PURCHASE THEM HERE

[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

 

https://www.howestreet.com/2024/09/markets-lithium-gold-silver-cycles-fed-rate-cut-eric-hadik-mark-leibovit-ross-clark-this-week-in-money/

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BULL TRAP CONDITION CONTINUES TO EXIST DESPITE WHAT YOU HEAR IN THE MEDIA

DANGER DANGER WILL ROBINSON

 

Inflation is not caused by the actions of private citizens, but by the government: by an artificial expansion of the money supply required to support deficit spending. No private embezzlers or bank robbers in history have ever plundered people's savings on a scale comparable to the plunder perpetrated by the fiscal policies of statist governments.

~ Ayn Rand

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U.S. Stocks Close Slightly Higher Following Lackluster Session

After recovering from an early move to the downside, stocks showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading session on Wednesday. The major averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line before eventually closing slightly higher.

The Dow edged up 39.55 points or 0.1 percent to 42,196.52, the Nasdaq inched up 14.76 points or 0.1 percent to 17,925.12 and the S&P 500 crept up 0.79 points or less than a tenth of a percent to 5,709.54.

The early weakness on Wall Street partly reflected concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East following Iran's ballistic missile attack against Israel on Tuesday.

While Iran has said it is not interested in a wider war, the attacks have contributed to a surge by the price of crude oil, leading to worries higher energy prices will lead to a resurgence in inflation.

Waning optimism the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively lower interest rates also weighed on stocks after payroll processor ADP released a report showing stronger than expected private sector job growth in the month of September.

ADP said private sector employment climbed by 143,000 jobs in September after rising by an upwardly revised 103,000 jobs in August.

Economists had expected private sector employment to advance by 120,000 jobs compared to the addition of 99,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

Selling pressure waned shortly after the start of trading, however, as traders continued to express optimism about the outlook for the economy following the jobs data.

On Friday, the Labor Department is due to release its more closely watched report on employment in the month of September.

Economists currently expect the report to show employment rose by 140,000 jobs in September after climbing by 142,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2 percent.

Sector News

While most of the major sectors showed only modest moves, semiconductor stocks saw a significant rebound following recent weakness, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up by 1.5 percent.

Considerable strength was also visible among networking stocks, as reflected by the 1.5 percent gain posted by the NYSE Arca Networking Index.

Computer hardware and energy stocks also saw strength on the day, while airline and housing stocks moved to the downside.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region turned in a mixed performance during trading on Wednesday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index plunged by 2.2 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index spiked by 6.2 percent.

The major European markets also ended the day mixed. While the German DAX Index fell by 0.3 percent, the French CAC 40 Index inched up by 0.1 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.2 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries gave back ground following the strength seen in the previous session. As result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 4.2 basis points to 3.785 percent.

Looking Ahead

Trading on Thursday may be impacted by reaction to the latest U.S. economic data, including reports on weekly jobless claims, service sector activity and factory orders.

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EDITOR: WE NEED THE LIKES OF GENERAL MCCARTHER, GENERAL PATTON, GENERAL EISENSHOWER OR EVEN CIVIL WAR GENERAL SHERMAN TO SEND THE IRANIANS TO KINGDOM COME AND STOP THE TALKING

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Yes, that's a cartoon of me.  Louis Rukeyser had us dressed up in 'elf' costumes on the screen broadcast each week.  I've dated myself. That occurred for me between 1988-1996.  Lou didn't like any bearish comments, so myself and other elves got dumped in 1996.  

WHO am I?

MARK LEIBOVIT is Chief Market Strategist for LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS  a/k/a VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (TM) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.

Mark's extensive media television profile includes seven years as a consultant ‘Elf’ on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week” television program, and over thirty years as a Market Monitor guest for PBS “The Nightly Business Report”.  He also has appeared on Fox Business News, CNBC, BNN (Canada), and Bloomberg, and has been interviewed in Barrons, Business Week, Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks.

In the January 2, 2020 edition of TIMER DIGEST MAGAZINE, Mark Leibovit was ranked the #1 U.S. Stock Market Timer and was previously ranked  #1 Intermediate U.S. Market Timer for the ten year period December, 1997 to 2007.

He was a 'Market Maker' on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Midwest Options Exchange and then went on to work in the Research department of two Chicago based brokerage firms.  Mr. Leibovit now publishes a series of newsletters at www.LeibovitVRNewsletters.com.   He became a member of the Market Technicians Association in 1982.

Mr. Leibovit’s specialty is Volume Analysis and his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. He has historical experience recognizing, bull and bear markets and signaling alerts prior to market crashes. His indicator is currently available on the Metastock platform.

His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis, The Trader’s Book of Volume published by McGraw-Hill is a definitive guide to volume trading.  It is now also published in Chinese.  Mark has appeared in speaking engagements and seminars in the U.S. and Canada.

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---

• Donations to LGBTQIA+ organizations

  Some shareholders have argued that Disney's donations to organizations that serve the LGBTQIA+ community are "extreme pursuits" that ignore the beliefs of most Americans.

• Inclusion of LGBTQ+ characters

  Some critics have taken issue with Disney's inclusion of LGBTQ+ characters and elements in stories, such as a same-sex kiss in Lightyear and a nonbinary character in Elemental.
• Black Ariel in Little Mermaid

  Some critics have taken issue with the inclusion of a Black Ariel in the recent Little Mermaid.

• Economic and reputational consequences

  Some claim that Disney's "woke virtue signaling" has had economic and reputational consequences, with Disney's market cap falling nearly 40% since February 2021. 

In response to these criticisms, Disney CEO Bob Iger has said that: 

---

RFK Jr. Shreds Democrats for Abandoning Democracy

https://tinyurl.com/24sh92xa

---

I USE JOEL WALLACH'S SUPPLEMENTS EVERY DAY.  MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A LINK TO PURCHASE THEM HERE

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