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602, 2026

LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS – AKA VRTRADER.COM – SINCE 1979 – MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2026 -SUPER BOWL INDICATOR AND OTHER MARKET CYCLES OF INTEREST

vrnews2026-02-06T21:43:17-07:00February 6th, 2026|0 Comments

https://www.howestreet.com/2026/02/market-metals-bitcoin-correction-predictable-mark-leibovit/

📊 What the Indicator Says

If a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) wins the Super Bowl, the stock market (as measured by major indexes like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones) will end the year higher (bullish).
If a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, the market will end the year lower (bearish).

The idea was first noted by sportswriter Leonard Koppett in 1978, who observed that through the early years of the Super Bowl the pattern seemed to hold — an NFC win was followed by a rising market and an AFC win by a declining market.

📉 Reality: Myth More Than Market Logic

There’s no economic or causal basis for why a football game would affect stocks, and the indicator’s predictive power is purely coincidental.
While it might have been “correct” in many early years, accuracy has fallen over time, especially in recent decades.
Market professionals consider it a superstition or fun anecdote, not a valid tool for investing decisions.

🧠 Why It Persists

People often look for simple patterns to explain complex markets, and connecting the most-watched annual sports event in the U.S. to the direction of the stock market is an entertaining notion — even if it doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.

In short: enjoy the game — but don’t bet your portfolio on the Super Bowl winner.

🏈 American Football Conference (AFC) — 16 Teams

These are the teams whose Super Bowl win would historically be interpreted as a “bearish” outcome by the Super Bowl Indicator:

🔹 AFC East

Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets

🔹 AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

🔹 AFC South

Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

🔹 AFC West

Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers

🏈 National Football Conference (NFC) — 16 Teams

These are the teams whose Super Bowl win would historically be seen as a “bullish” indicator:

🔹 NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders

🔹 NFC North

Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

🔹 NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

🔹 NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks

📌 How It Relates to the Super Bowl Indicator

If a team from the NFC wins the Super Bowl → Indicator says stocks should finish the year higher.
If a team from the AFC wins the Super Bowl → Indicator says stocks should finish the year lower.

(Reminder: This is a correlation myth — not a real investing tool.)

(Live game widget for Super Bowl LX on February 8, 2026)

🏆 Super Bowl LX Matchup (2026)

Seattle Seahawks — Champions of the National Football Conference (NFC) ✔️
👉 According to the Super Bowl Indicator, if this NFC team wins the Super Bowl, the indicator would say the U.S. stock market should finish the year higher (bullish).
New England Patriots — Champions of the American Football Conference (AFC) ✔️
👉 If this AFC team wins, the indicator would suggest the market will finish the year lower (bearish).

📍 Game Info: Super Bowl LX will take place on Sunday, February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.

🧠 Indicator Summary for This Matchup

Winner	Conference	Super Bowl Indicator Says
Seahawks	NFC	📈 Market finishes higher (bullish)
Patriots	AFC	📉 Market finishes lower (bearish)

(Reminder: The Super Bowl Indicator is a fun market superstition — not a reliable investing strategy.)

🏈 Super Bowl Indicator: How It’s Performed Over Time

📅 Overall Track Record

Time period studied: 1967–present
Total Super Bowls: ~58
Overall accuracy: ~65–70% depending on cutoff year

That headline number is what keeps the legend alive — but the trend over time matters way more than the raw total.

⏳ Accuracy by Era (This Is the Key Part)

🟢 1967–1990: The Golden Age

Accuracy: ~80–85%
Misses were rare
This is when Leonard Koppett popularized it

👉 This early success is statistically suspicious — small sample size + favorable randomness.

🟡 1991–2009: Cracks Appear

Accuracy: ~60–65%
Still slightly better than a coin flip
Several high-profile failures

Examples:

1998: AFC Broncos win → market up
2003: AFC Buccaneers win → market up
2009: NFC Steelers win → market down (financial crisis)

🔴 2010–Present: Coin-Flip Territory

Accuracy: ~50–55%
Essentially random
No longer statistically significant

Recent notable misses:

2015: AFC Patriots → market up
2017: AFC Patriots → market up
2020: AFC Chiefs → market up
2023: AFC Chiefs → market up

👉 Modern markets = global liquidity, algos, Fed policy
👉 A football game has zero explanatory power

📊 Bullish vs Bearish Years

Conference Winner	% Market Up
NFC wins	~68%
AFC wins	~52%

Once you remove early decades, the edge basically disappears.

🧠 Why It “Worked” Early (Probably)

Fewer Super Bowls = small dataset
U.S. economy less globalized
Survivorship bias (we remember hits, forget misses)
Humans are excellent at pattern-finding… even when none exist

🎯 Bottom Line (Trader’s Take)

✅ Fun sentiment gauge
❌ Not predictive
❌ No causal mechanism
⚠️ Fails badly in modern markets

Think of it like:

The January Effect with shoulder pads.

🏈 Super Bowl Indicator Overlay

Super Bowl Winner → Conference → What the Indicator Predicts → What Actually Happened

📊 Last 10 Super Bowls (2016–2025)

Super Bowl	Winner	Conf.	Indicator Says	S&P 500 Full-Year Result	Hit / Miss
2016	Broncos	AFC	📉 Down	📈 Up ~12%	❌ Miss
2017	Patriots	AFC	📉 Down	📈 Up ~21%	❌ Miss
2018	Eagles	NFC	📈 Up	📉 Down ~6%	❌ Miss
2019	Patriots	AFC	📉 Down	📈 Up ~29%	❌ Miss
2020	Chiefs	AFC	📉 Down	📈 Up ~16%	❌ Miss
2021	Buccaneers	NFC	📈 Up	📈 Up ~27%	✅ Hit
2022	Rams	NFC	📈 Up	📉 Down ~19%	❌ Miss
2023	Chiefs	AFC	📉 Down	📈 Up ~24%	❌ Miss
2024	Chiefs	AFC	📉 Down	📈 Up ~26%	❌ Miss
2025	Chiefs	AFC	📉 Down	📈 Up ~23%	❌ Miss

👉 Result

1 correct out of 10
Accuracy: 10%
That’s not just bad — it’s statistically embarrassing

🧠 Why the Indicator Completely Broke

Fed liquidity > football outcomes
Algorithmic & global capital flows dominate
Markets trend upward long-term → AFC “bearish” signal constantly wrong
Early success = small sample illusion

📉 Visual Reality Check (Conceptual)

If you graphed it:

Early decades: NFC wins clustered during post-war expansion
Modern era: no clustering, no signal
Indicator has negative value if traded literally since ~2010

🎯 Trader’s Bottom Line

🏈 Fun bar trivia
🧠 Great lesson in confirmation bias
💰 Useless for capital allocation
⚠️ If anything, it’s now a contrarian joke

In the modern era:
“AFC win = buy the dip” has worked better than the indicator itself.

1️⃣ January Barometer (Way More Legit)

📜 The Rule

“As goes January, so goes the year.”
If the S&P 500 finishes January up, the full year tends to be up.
If January finishes down, odds tilt bearish.

📊 Historical Stats

Since 1950
- Accuracy: ~75%
Since 1990
- Accuracy: ~68–70%
False signals usually occur during:
- Recessions
- Major Fed regime shifts
- Exogenous shocks (2008, 2020)

🧠 Why It Has Some Edge

January captures:
- New capital allocation
- Pension & institutional flows
- Risk appetite early in the year
It’s behavioral finance, not superstition

👉 Verdict:
✔️ Not perfect
✔️ Still relevant
✔️ Much stronger than Super Bowl Indicator

2️⃣ Presidential Cycle (The Macro Backbone)

📅 The 4-Year Pattern (Since 1928)

Year	Typical Market Bias
Year 1 (Post-election)	Volatile / mixed
Year 2 (Midterms)	Weak → major bottom
Year 3 (Pre-election)	🔥 Strongest year
Year 4 (Election year)	Positive but choppy

📊 Key Stats

Year 3 average return: ~+15–17%
Year 2: Most frequent bear-market lows
Pattern still works even post-algorithm era

🧠 Why It Persists

Fiscal stimulus timing
Political incentives
Regulatory easing before elections

👉 Verdict:
✔️ Strong macro framework
✔️ Especially powerful when aligned with Fed policy

3️⃣ Turning Myths into a REAL Sentiment-Fade Strategy

Here’s where this becomes tradable.

🎯 The Core Insight

When widely known “indicators” go viral, they stop working — and often invert.

Examples:

Super Bowl Indicator
“Sell in May”
CNBC consensus narratives
Crowd certainty after obvious news

🔁 Practical Trading Framework

Step 1: Identify the Crowd Signal

Is it:
- Repeated on TV?
- Trending on X?
- Explained in “fun charts”?
If yes → it’s already priced

Step 2: Check the Real Drivers

Ignore the myth. Ask:

What is the Fed doing?
What’s liquidity doing?
Are earnings revisions rising or falling?
Is volatility compressing or expanding?

Step 3: Fade With Structure

You don’t fade blindly.

Example: AFC wins Super Bowl

Crowd joke: “Bearish!”
Reality check:
- Liquidity expanding?
- Market above 200-DMA?
- Credit spreads tight?

👉 If yes → fade the bearish narrative

🧠 Why This Works

Markets punish certainty
Retail reacts emotionally
Institutions fade obvious sentiment extremes

🔥 Combined Power Stack (This Is the Sweet Spot)

When these align, probabilities improve:

✅ Presidential Cycle tailwind
✅ January Barometer confirms
✅ Sentiment is lopsided
✅ Fed not tightening aggressively

That’s when you press.

🧾 Final Scorecard

Indicator	Fun	Useful	Tradable
Super Bowl Indicator	⭐⭐⭐⭐	❌	❌
January Barometer	⭐⭐	✅	⚠️
Presidential Cycle	⭐⭐	✅✅	✅
Sentiment Fade	⭐	🔥🔥🔥	🔥🔥🔥

🧠 Bottom Line (Your Kind of Take)

The Super Bowl Indicator isn’t a signal —
It’s a sentiment tell.
And sentiment tells are gold when you know how to fade them.

DISCLAIMER:

WE ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND DO NOT PROVIDE FINANCIAL ADVICE

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502, 2026

LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS – AKA -VRTRADER.COM – SINCE 1979! – FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2026 – TODAY’S PODCAST BELOW

vrnews2026-02-05T22:17:04-07:00February 5th, 2026|0 Comments

LEIBOVITVRNEWSLETTERS.COM

SIX MORE WEEKS OF WINTER! BOY, OUR FURRY FRIEND WAS RIGHT!

https://www.howestreet.com/2026/02/market-metals-bitcoin-correction-predictable-mark-leibovit/https://youtu.be/gkKtWLeiENM?si=o9w0QY6HrsMPbRA0

DISCLAIMER:

WE ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND DO NOT PROVIDE FINANCIAL ADVICE

The website, LeibovitVRNewsletters.com, is published by LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC.

Stocks and ETFs may be held by principals of LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC whose personal investment decisions including entry and exit points may differ from guidelines posted.

The Leibovit Volume Reversal, Volume Reversal and Leibovit VR are registered trademarks.

402, 2026

LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS – AKA VRTRADER.COM – THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2026 – DID THE GROUND HOG EFFECT AND THE GEOMAGNETIC STORM IMPACT MARKETS? OF COURSE!

vrnews2026-02-04T20:08:27-07:00February 4th, 2026|0 Comments

LEIBOVITVRNEWSLETTERS.COM

SIX MORE WEEKS OF WINTER! BOY, OUR FURRY FRIEND WAS RIGHT!

https://www.howestreet.com/2026/01/ground-hog-day-does-it-affect-the-markets-mark-leibovit/

NEXT PODCAST THURSDAY EVENING

DISCLAIMER:

WE ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND DO NOT PROVIDE FINANCIAL ADVICE

The website, LeibovitVRNewsletters.com, is published by LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC.

Stocks and ETFs may be held by principals of LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC whose personal investment decisions including entry and exit points may differ from guidelines posted.

The Leibovit Volume Reversal, Volume Reversal and Leibovit VR are registered trademarks.