LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS – AKA VRTRADER.COM – WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2026
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NEXT PODCAST THURSDAY EVENING
SCHWAB ‘BIG 3’ INTERVIEW
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NEXT ‘BIG 3’ APPEARANCE SCHEDULED FOR MONDAY, OCTOBER 26
MY CALL FOR GOLD AT $38,000 BEFORE 2032
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SUPER EL NINO EFFECTS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT!
LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS – AKA – VRTRADER.COM – TURNAROUND TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2026
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October 2026 Stock Market Sell-Off: Probability Assessment
Market assessment as of October 12, 2026, after the U.S. close
My assessment: The probability of an October correction is elevated, particularly during October 13–30. I favor a pullback over an outright crash, but the combination of rising Treasury yields, inflation concerns, expensive technology stocks, and geopolitical tensions creates a potentially dangerous environment.
Estimated probabilities through October 30
Subjective scenario estimates, not statistically calibrated forecasts. S&P 500 declines measured from its October 12 close of 7,807.24; scenarios are mutually exclusive.
Market holds or advances
Less than 3% decline
30%
Mild pullback
3–5% decline
30%
Significant correction
5–10% decline
27%
Severe sell-off
More than 10% decline
13%
Probability of 5%+ decline
40%
Probability of 10%+ decline
13%
These estimates represent my risk-weighted judgment, not a mathematical prediction. They are based on current market conditions and can change substantially following inflation releases and earnings.
Where the market stands
| Index | October 12 close | Daily change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,807.24 | −0.06% |
| Dow Jones | 51,850.55 | +0.38% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,245.90 | −0.44% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,794.48 | −0.45% |
The S&P 500 is still up approximately 14% year to date, but weakness in semiconductors and declining Nasdaq breadth suggest underlying vulnerability.
Reuters
+1
S&P 500 […]
