U.S. MARKETS:

With tamer than expected inflation data generating considerable buying interest, stocks showed a substantial move to the upside during trading on Tuesday. The major averages all moved sharply higher after ending Monday's trading narrowly mixed.

The major averages pulled back off their highs of the session going into the close but still posted strong gains. The Nasdaq soared 326.64 points or 2.4 percent to 14,094.38, the S&P 500 surged 84.15 points or 1.9 percent to 4,495.70 and the Dow jumped 489.83 points or 1.4 percent to 34,827.70.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq reached its best closing level in over three-months, while the Dow and the S&P 500 set new two-month closing highs.

The rally on Wall Street came following the release of the Labor Department's highly anticipated report on consumer price inflation in the month of October.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged in October after climbing by 0.4 percent in September. Economists had expected consumer prices to inch up by 0.1 percent.

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices edged up by 0.2 percent in October after rising by 0.3 percent in September. Core prices were expected to rise by another 0.3 percent.

The report also said the annual rate of consumer price growth slowed to 3.2 percent in October from 3.7 percent in September. Economists had expected the pace of growth to decelerate to 3.3 percent.

Core consumer prices were up by 4.0 percent compared to the same month a year ago, reflecting the smallest year-over-year increase since September 2021.

The annual rate of core consumer price growth was expected to come in unchanged from 4.1 percent in the previous month.

Michael Pearce, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, said the slowdown in core price growth should "give Fed officials more confidence that inflation is on a firm downward trajectory, staying its hand for rate hikes."

Treasury yields moved sharply lower following the release of the report, adding to the buying interest on Wall Street.

Sector News

Airline stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the trading session, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index soaring by 6.7 percent to its best closing level in a month.

Substantial strength was also visible among housing stocks, as reflected by the 5.5 percent spike by the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index. The index jumped to a three-month closing high.

Interest rate-sensitive commercial real estate stocks also saw considerable strength, resulting in a 5.4 percent surge by the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.

Gold, networking, banking and utilities stocks also moved significantly higher, reflecting broad based buying interest on Wall Street.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly higher during trading on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index and China's Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.3 percent, while South Korea's Kospi jumped by 1.2 percent.

European stocks also showed strong moves to the upside on the day. While the German DAX Index spiked by 1.8 percent, the French CAC 40 Index surged by 1.4 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index edged up by 0.2 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries moved sharply higher in reaction to the consumer price inflation data. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, plunged 19.1 basis points to 4.441 percent.

Looking Ahead

Economic data is likely to remain in focus on Wednesday, with traders likely to keep a close eye on reports on retail sales, producer prices and New York manufacturing.

https://www.howestreet.com/2023/11/seasonality-could-boost-markets-to-a-record-mark-leibovit/

SEASONALITY COULD BOOST MARKETS TO A RECORD

 

U.S. DOLLAR - DAILY - DOLLAR BROKE SUPPORT WITH A VENGEANCE.  NEXT SUPPORT IS THE GREEN AND RED LINES. 

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CRYPTO UPDATE AS OF NOVEMBER 14, 2023:

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Elite investor Jim Rogers touts gold and silver over stocks and real estate - and warns inflation will worsen and a recession is looming -Business Insider

by Theron Mohamed

Jim Rogers expects gold and silver to outshine other assets during a period of historic inflation and widespread worry about a recession.

"If you're in a world where prices are going higher, you want to own the things that are going higher in price," the veteran investor told "The Julia La Roche Show" in a recent interview.

Rogers is best known as George Soros' former business partner, and the cofounder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management. He explained that fast-rising prices make fixed-income assets like bonds less attractive, and the higher interest rates that typically accompany them often weigh on the stock market and real-estate sector.

However, commodities like gold, silver, and rice tend to appreciate during inflationary times, meaning they're "usually a good place to ride it out and even perhaps make a lot of money," Rogers said. He singled out gold as a historical beneficiary of surging prices and raging wars, but hailed silver as the better bet today as its price is much more depressed.

Rogers also said he expects other currencies to threaten the US dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, but he hasn't found the likely winner from de-dollarization as yet. He noted that Washington's use of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine has stoked concerns in several nations that the dollar isn't a neutral haven, and could become a liability if a country angers America.

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Livin’ On A Prayer … And Credit! US Consumer Debt Hits $17.3 TRILLION As Credit Card Delinquency Growth Highest Since Covid Lockdown (UMich Inflation Expectations SOAR To Highest Since 2011!) -Confounded Interest

Under Bidenomics, with its high inflation rate and crushing negative wage growth, consumers are draining their savings and living on a prayer … and consumer credit to cope.

US consumer credit just rose to $17.3 trillion, up dramatically since Biden's inauguration as El Presidente of the United Banana Republics of America.

What is worrisome in the transition rates (like current to 90-days delinquent) Credit cards (blue) and auto loans (red).

A closer look at credit card delinquency rates on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, showing the fastest growth in delinquencies since the Covid economic lockdowns.

Then we have commercial real estate delinquencies are now the highest the have been since 2013.

Meanwhile, University of Michigan consumer sentiment about inflation spiked to 4.4%. That is the highest medium-term inflation expectation since 2011.

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BRICS: Economist Predicts ‘Messy’ Ending for the US Dollar -Watcher.guru

FranklinAmid the economic alliance’s de-dollarization efforts, the BRICS bloc has led one economist to predict a “messy” ending for the US dollar. Indeed, Kit Juckes of Societe Generale predicted that the rest of 2023 would arrive with a slowdown for the declining currency amid the growing economic alliance.

As the bloc has embraced alternative currencies, Juckes specifically predicted that the “dollar is set to fall back.” Moreover, he stated that the status of the greenback is set to take a different turn in the upcoming year. Subsequently, he predicts a far weaker state as it enters 2024.

There is little argument to be made against the prominence of the US dollar over the last twenty years. The currency has firmly established itself as a gold standard, operating as the global reserve currency for that time frame. However, with the arrival of BRICS, and a greater international desire to lessen its prevalence, things are changing. Subsequently, they could get ugly.

Amid BRICS de-dollarization initiatives, economist Kit Juckes has predicted a “messy” ending for the US dollar. Indeed, Juckes discussed the last two decades of dominance, and how current circumstances may well have them come to a gradual halt over the next several years.

Another Bank Bites the Dust! - Daily Reckoning

The bank failures continue, and these failures aren't happening in a vacuum; they speak to a deeper truth. The banking landscape in this country has forever changed and its cracks are revealing the deep flaws within the system. With each bailout, the system gets even weaker and the cost to insure deposits gets higher - which is ultimately passed down to depositors further eroding the value of your savings.

by James Rickards

Another bank bites the dust!

Citizens Bank was a small bank in Iowa with about $66 million in assets. Its loan portfolio consisted largely of commercial and industrial loans.

Well, this past Friday the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced that Citizens Bank had failed due to significant hidden loan losses totaling about $15 million.

Because Citizens Bank was not a member of FDIC, the bank’s losses will be the responsibility of the state of Iowa.

This is the sixth notable bank failure this year. As you might recall, the first five were Silicon Valley Bank (back in March), Silvergate Bank (a bridge from the crypto world), Signature Bank (another crypto conduit to the regular banking world), First Republic Bank and the giant Credit Suisse.

I warned in March that the failure of Silicon Valley Bank would be just the start. Now we’ve had five additional bank failures.

And this latest failure won’t be the last. 

Americans Are Absolutely Drowning In Debt, And This Really Is The Worst Debt Crisis In All Of U.S. History -The Economic Collapse Blog

Americans find themselves drowning in debt unlike ever before. Most experts suggest the only way out of the mess is complete reboot which is another way of stating ... a financial collapse.

debtI truly wish that headline was an exaggeration. Unfortunately, for decades Americans have been extremely irresponsible with their finances. As a result, credit card debt is at an all-time high, auto loan debt is at an all-time high, mortgage debt is at an all-time high, corporate debt is at an all-time high, state and local governments all over the nation continue to get into absurd amounts of debt, and the federal government has piled up the single largest mountain of debt in the history of the world. Our whole society is absolutely drowning in debt at this stage, and the only way out is for the entire system to collapse.

On Tuesday, we learned that the total amount of credit card debt in the U.S. has now reached a new record high of 1.08 trillion dollars…

Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, according to a new report on household debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Credit card balances spiked by $154 billion year over year, notching the largest increase since 1999, the New York Fed found.

“Credit card balances experienced a large jump in the third quarter, consistent with strong consumer spending and real GDP growth,” said Donghoon Lee, the New York Fed’s economic research advisor. 

Bond-market crash leaves big banks with $650 billion of unrealized losses as the ghost of SVB continues to haunt Wall Street - Business Insider

Just when we thought SVB's failure was a thing of the past, its long term consequences threaten some of the biggest banks. Those big banks named here are sitting on massive unrealized losses which seem to make the looming threat of collapse more of a foregone conclusion.

by George Glover

Crashing bond prices sank Silicon Valley Bank in March — and there's reason to believe that what triggered the California lender's collapse may be haunting Wall Street again.

The brutal Treasury-market meltdown has hit some of the largest financial institutions hard, dragging down the share prices of big names such as Bank of America and fueling fears that the turmoil triggered by SVB's bankruptcy may not be over just yet.

Here's everything you need to know about unrealized losses, including why they're dragging on bank stocks and whether they could trigger another financial crisis. Unrealized losses

Treasury bonds — debt instruments the government issues to fund its spending — have been on a nightmarish run since the onset of the pandemic, with investors fretting about rising interest rates and the long-term viability of the US's massive deficit

Citigroup considers deep job cuts for CEO Jane Fraser’s overhaul, called ‘Project Bora Bora’ -CNBC

by Hugh Son

banksWhen Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser announced in September that her sweeping corporate overhaul would result in an undisclosed number of layoffs, a jolt of fear ran through many of the bank’s 240,000 souls.

“We’ll be saying goodbye to some very talented and hard-working colleagues,” she warned in a memo.

Employees’ concerns are justified. Managers and consultants working on Fraser’s reorganization — known internally by its code name, “Project Bora Bora” — have discussed job cuts of at least 10% in several major businesses, according to people with knowledge of the process. The talks are early and numbers may shift in coming weeks.

Fraser is under mounting pressure to fix Citigroup, a global bank so difficult to manage that its challenges consumed three predecessors dating back to 2007. Already a laggard in every metric that matters to investors, the bank has fallen further behind rivals since Fraser took over in early 2021. It trades at a price-to-tangible book value ratio of 0.49, less than half the average of U.S. peers and one-third the valuation of top performers including JPMorgan Chase.

Why Banks Are Suddenly Closing Down Customer Accounts -DNYUZ

The reasons vary, but the scene that plays out is almost always the same.

Bank customers get a letter in the mail saying their institution is closing all of their checking and savings accounts. Their debit and credit cards are shuttered, too. The explanation, if there is one, usually lacks any useful detail.

Or maybe the customers don’t see the letter, or never get one at all. Instead, they discover that their accounts no longer work while they’re at the grocery store, rental car counter or A.T.M. When they call their bank, frantic, representatives show concern at first. “Oh, no, so sorry,” they say. “We’ll do whatever we can to fix this.”

But then comes the telltale pause and shift in tone. “Per your account agreement, we can close your account for any reason at any time,” the script often goes.

These situations are what banks refer to as “exiting” or “de-risking.” This isn’t your standard boot for people who have bounced too many checks. Instead, a vast security apparatus has kicked into gear, starting with regulators in Washington and trickling down to bank security managers and branch staff eyeballing customers. The goal is to crack down on fraud, terrorism, money laundering, human trafficking and other crimes.

In the process, banks are evicting what appear to be an increasing number of individuals, families and small-business owners. Often, they don’t have the faintest idea why their banks turned against them. 

The 'biggest threat to global order since the 1930s'

More and more CEOs are considering the role geopolitics play in the health of their corporations. They can see the dangers that lie ahead if America doesn't get this latest one right; and our current leadership isn't exactly instilling confidence. If the threat exists for them, it exists for all of us. Which is why we should all be considering our investment choices carefully as these events unfold.

The 'biggest threat to global order since the 1930s' is underway and every CEO is talking about it -CNBC

mapThe United States is facing its fourth major inflection point in history since the early 20th century, and if world leaders get it wrong, the results could be similar to what occurred during the 1930s and ultimately led to World War II. That’s according to Frederick Kempe, CEO of foreign policy think tank Atlantic Council, and it is a fear he says more CEOs of major corporations are focused on today.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned, “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.”

According to Kempe, that’s a feeling shared in many corporate boardrooms.

“Every CEO, all the banks I am talking to, are factoring in geopolitics in their thinking in a way they didn’t five years ago,” Kempe said at the CNBC Global Evolve virtual summit on Thursday.

This shift has not happened suddenly with the outbreak of war in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, Kempe said. It has been building over the past five years as a series of exogenous shocks have upended the status quo in markets.

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America's debt bomb

$2,000 gold is just the beginning. Here’s what might happen next - Sovereign Man

Will gold continue going up? We've already seen a 21% increase this year and it appears that's just the start for this new gold bull. Global tensions, both political and financial, are mounting by the day and are creating the perfect launchpad for soaring gold prices. Now is the perfect time to shore up your portfolio with physical metal.

by Simon Black

Public Law 93-373 was supposed to be so boring that Congress didn’t even bother to give it a name.

You know how most laws passed by Congress have some fancy name– like the “Inflation Reduction Act” or the “USA PATRIOT Act” or some such nonsense?

Well, on November 7, 1973, US Senator James Fulbright introduced a very short bill– it was only ONE page– that didn’t even have a name. But Fulbright’s unnamed bill ended up being one of the most important pieces of legislation in US history.

By the time Fulbright introduced his bill, it had been two years since the legendary “Nixon Shock” of 1971. That was when US President Richard Nixon implemented wage and price controls, and canceled the US dollar’s convertibility into gold.

Nixon famously promised the American public that there wouldn’t be any negative consequences from his actions. Yet inflation hit 3% the following year, in 1972. Then 4.7% in 1973. Then 11.2% in 1974.

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The fuse on America's debt bomb just got shorter -Fox Business

The US debt problem is not news to anyone ... unless you've been living under a rock for the last several decades. What may be news is that we've incurred as much additional debt in six months than what we did in the previous 12. This is a non-sustainable trajectory by anyone's measures. The downward spiral this will create in our financial markets is nothing short of terrifying!

by E.J. Antoni

debtIf you thought it was scary when the Treasury Department recently dropped a financial bomb, announcing the deficit for fiscal year 2023 was $1.7 trillion dollars, please sit down before you read on. The Treasury just released new numbers projecting borrowing of $1.6 trillion in just the first half of fiscal year 2024.

As if the 23 percent growth in last year’s deficit wasn’t enough, the Treasury is now on track to borrow almost as much in just six months as it did in the previous 12. That’s nearly a doubling of the deficit. It means the Treasury is on track to borrow over $3 trillion this fiscal year, 50 percent more than previously estimated by the Congressional Budget Office.

Besides the pandemic in 2020, America has never run deficits like the previous, current, or next quarter, at $1 trillion, $776 billion, and $816 billion, respectively. In the four quarters that preceded the pandemic, the Treasury had an average deficit of under $300 billion, about half to one-third of today’s levels.

To be clear, borrowing was much too high even before 2020. But the fact that borrowing is now almost three times as high speaks volumes about how quickly things are spiraling out of control. The federal government’s financial situation resembles a stereotypical bomb from a cartoon or cinema, spherical in shape with an impractically long fuse.

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Russia Makes Huge Announcement on BRICS Currency -Watcher.guru

BRICS has been talking about launching their own currency for a while now, and that time may finally be here. The growing interest in BRICS by countries throughout the world is making this transition a very believable - perhaps inevitable - reality moving forward. What this will do to the value of the dollar remains to be seen, but most experts suggest it will not be a favorable change as it relates to the buck's future.

by Vinod Dsouza

The 15th BRICS summit in August this year ended on a high note as the alliance inducted six new countries into the bloc. The induction of new countries is historic, as the group decided on expansion after more than a decade. The expansion comes at a time when BRICS is working on the formation of a new currency to challenge the US dollar. In the latest update, Russia’s former advisor to the President and economist-turned-politician, Sergey Glazyev, made a huge announcement on the formation of the upcoming BRICS currency.

Sergey’s statements indicate that BRICS is serious about launching a new currency to take on the US dollar. Going by Russia’s economist comments, the new BRICS currency might be launched during the 16th summit in 2024. 

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