WELCOME TO LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS- THURSDAY – SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

---

U.S. MARKETS:  GENERAL PRESS COMMENTARY

Following the sell-off seen during Tuesday’s session, stocks saw substantial volatility over the course of the trading day on Wednesday. The major averages spent the day showing wild swings back and forth across the unchanged line.

The major averages eventually ended the day narrowly mixed. While the Dow slipped 68.61 points or 0.2 percent to a new three-month closing low of 33,550.27, the S&P 500 crept up 0.98 points or less than a tenth of a percent to 4,274.51 and the Nasdaq rose 29.24 points or 0.2 percent to 13,092.85.

The volatility on Wall Street came as some traders made another attempt at bargain hunting following yesterday’s sell-off but concerns about the outlook for interest rates continue to hang over the markets.

Recent comments from the likes of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon and Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari have led to worries the Federal Reserve may raise rates higher than previously anticipated.

In U.S. economic news, the Commerce Department released a report unexpectedly showing a modest rebound in new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in the month of August.

The Commerce Department said durable goods orders crept up by 0.2 percent in August after plunging by a revised 5.6 percent in July.

The uptick surprised economists, who had expected durable goods orders to fall by 0.5 percent compared to the 5.2 percent nosedive that had been reported for the previous month.

Excluding a modest decrease in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose by 0.4 percent in August after inching up by a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in July.

Economists had expected ex-transportation orders to edge up by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.5 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

“A positive surprise with durable goods data was initially viewed as good news for the economy and possibly stocks, but good news is actually bad news for equities,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

“Signs of economic resilience will move the needle in possibly making the Fed deliver more rate hikes,” he added. “Also weighing on equities is the harsh reality that a tight oil market is not going away and that will be a major headache for the economy.”

Sector News

While most of the major sectors showed only modest moves on the day, energy stocks saw substantial strength amid a sharp increase by the price of crude oil.

With crude for November delivery soaring $3.29 to $93.68 a barrel amid concerns about tight supplies, the Philadelphia Oil Service Index spiked by 3.4 percent and the NYSE Arca Oil Index surged by 2.4 percent.

A significant increase in the price of natural gas also contributed to strength among associated stocks, driving the NYSE Arca Natural Gas Index up by 1.6 percent.

On the other hand, gold stocks saw considerable weakness, dragging the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index down by 3.3 percent to a ten-month closing low.

The sell-off by gold stocks came amid a sharp drop by the price of the precious metal, with gold for December delivery tumbling $28.90 to $1,890.90 an ounce.

Notable weakness was also visible among interest rate-sensitive utilities stocks, as reflected by the 1.5 percent loss posted by the Dow Jones Utility Average. With the drop, the average fell its lowest closing level in over two years.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, most stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly higher during trading on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index and China’s Shanghai Composite Index both edged up by 0.2 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets moved to the downside on the day. While the French CAC 40 Index closed just below the unchanged line, the German DAX Index and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fell by 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

In the bond market, treasuries showed a substantial downturn over the course of the session after seeing early strength. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 6.8 basis points at 4.626 percent after hitting a low of 4.491 percent.

Looking Ahead

While reports on weekly jobless claims and pending home sales may attract attention on Thursday, traders may be reluctant to make significant moves ahead of remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell due to begin at the close of trading.

 

---

Mark Leibovit: Value of US Dollar Tied to Interest Rates

https://tinyurl.com/bdejpjuv

NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY EVENING

---

SPX – WEEKLY – BULLS ON THE RUN HERE AS FORECAST

 

CRYPTO UPDATE AS OF SEPTEMBER 27:

 

CANNABIS MOVERS AND SHAKERS SEPTEMBER 27:

 

---

It’s that time of year again … government shutdown season. This one seems like an inevitability so now the question is, how long will it last? These threats of shutdowns – and actual shutdowns – do seem to somehow resolve themselves with little fanfare, but that doesn’t mean the economy hasn’t lost billions while our elected officials play politics.

---

“It’s Not Coming; It’s Already Here” -Daily Reckoning

The long and protracted War on Cash rages on; but those on the side of solely digital dollars are gaining a frightening amount of ground lately. ‘Safety and convenience’ is their battle cry, but at what cost? The loss of freedom, privacy and long-term wealth. It’s a terrible tradeoff. This is why we recommend a position in gold. A real form of money that has stood the test of time.

---

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Says This Is the Number One Risk Threatening Global Economy – And It’s Not Inflation – The Daily Hodl

Jamie Dimon is comparing the current American market sentiment to a sugar high and is concerned many are unprepared for what is on the horizon. He advises investors to batten down the hatches and prepare for some hardship ahead.

---

The SEC is Snooping on All Your Trades

EDITOR’S NOTE: The War on Cash is fought on a variety of fronts but the end result is always a loss of liberty and privacy for us all. The SEC’s sharing of the data on every market move we make is just the latest strategy. While the tracking should be alarming in and of itself, the threat of this information being open to hacking is of even greater concern. A centralized database to track every American investor is, without question, an unconstitutional data grab; but can it be stopped?

What’s in Your Portfolio? The SEC is Snooping on All Your Trades -MishTalk.com

portfolioThe SEC is now tracking your stock trades by your Social Security Number. It shares the data with 3,000 outside agencies.

In 2012 the SEC approved a new rule requiring a Consolidated Audit Trail to Monitor and Analyze Trading Activity.

“A consolidated audit trail that accurately tracks orders throughout their lifecycle and identifies the broker-dealers handling them will provide us with an unprecedented ability to effectively oversee the markets we regulate,” said SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro.

The new rule becomes effective 60 days after its publication in the Federal Register. SROs are required to submit the NMS plan to the Commission within 270 days of the rule’s publication in the Federal Register. Once the Commission approves the NMS plan, the SROs are required to report the required data to the central repository within one year, and members of the SROs are required to report within two years. Certain small broker-dealers will have up to three years to report the data.

This ruling was in response to a 2010 flash crash and quietly sat for years. The SEC is now following through.

The scope of the Consolidated Audit Trail, or CAT, a regulation the SEC issued in 2016 but implemented only recently, is breathtaking and unprecedented. In the words of the SEC press release, the regulation instructs regulated financial institutions to identify “every order, cancellation, modification and trade execution for all exchange-listed equities and options across all U.S. markets.” 

---

Government Shutdown Could Push Unemployment To 4%, Triggering Recession Start Signal -ZeroHedge

by Tyler Durden

According to Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong, online betting markets see a 69% chance of a federal government shutdown starting Oct. 1, when appropriations will lapse if lawmakers can’t agree on a funding bill (in reality, the odds of a shutdown are just about 100%, although after a few weeks all should go back to normal as it always does after people get bored with the theatrics).

According to Goldman, a government-wide shutdown would reduce quarterly annualized growth by around 0.2% for each week it lasted after accounting for modest private sector effects. Goldman’s baseline is that a shutdown could last for 2-3 weeks (the Trump government shutdown, the longest in history, lasted 35 days, from Dec 22, 2018 to Jan 25, 2019).

Meanwhile, Bloomberg Economics estimates a month-long government shutdown could temporarily push up the unemployment rate in October, triggering a popular rule for identifying the start of a recession.

And while the hit to unemployment and GDP growth will reverse once the funding impasse is resolved, Bloomberg’s baseline is for the shutdown to have a mild negative impact overall due to forgone economic activity and uncertainty.

Bloomberg also speculates that in an extreme tail event, the maximum hit to 4Q GDP would be a drag of 2.8% if the shutdown lasts for the entire quarter.

Considering that the current Bloomberg survey median sees just 0.4% GDP growth for 4Q, a shutdown that lasts all quarter would push 4Q growth deep into negative territory, something we first said on Tuesday. However, as noted above, past shutdowns have, on average, been much shorter. The eight government shutdowns since 1982 have lasted an average of two weeks. The longest one — in 2018 — lasted five weeks.

Assuming a two-week duration, the shutdown will knock 0.5% off annualized quarterly GDP growth while it’s ongoing, and raise the unemployment rate by 0.1% in October. The effects will mostly reverse within 4Q once the funding stalemate is resolved, but forgone economic activity and the uncertainty from the shock could produce a net drag of 0.1% on 4Q GDP.

In the scenario of a month-long shutdown — and assuming the unemployment rate remains at 3.8% in September — October’s unemployment rate could increase to 4.0%. That would meet the Sahm Rule threshold for identifying a recession.

---

‘Bond King’ Jeffrey Gundlach warns of ‘demons on the horizon’ for stocks – and predicts a dollar disaster and recession next year -Yahoo! Finance

by Theron Mohamed

Jeffrey Gundlach issued a slew of warnings about the stock market, the US dollar, and an upcoming recession during the Future Proof conference last week.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have surged 16% and 31% respectively this year, as investors price in the potential boost to companies from artificial intelligence and future cuts to interest rates. However, they’re overlooking “demons on the horizon,” Gundlach cautioned.

The billionaire CEO of DoubleLine Capital highlighted signs of a faltering US economy as a key concern. He pointed to a recent wave of corporate layoffs, and consumers feeling the squeeze from record amounts of credit-card debt as red flags. He also noted the chilling effect of higher mortgage rates on the housing market, and the challenge for small businesses of having to refinance their debts at much higher interest rates.

“The economy is definitely weakening,” Gundlach said. “I look for one next year, and I think the indicators are getting really convincing in that regard,” he said about the prospect of a recession.

The fund manager — whose nickname is the “Bond King” — also argued that economic growth has been shored up this year by a dangerous and unsustainable amount of government spending.

“The economy is only growing because we have a budget deficit that is 8% of GDP,” he said. “It’s about the same today as the depths of the global financial crisis.”

Gundlach underscored that the federal government financed most of its spending at rock-bottom rates. However, the Federal Reserve’s war on inflation has seen it hike rates from nearly zero to over 5% since last spring, meaning the government’s interest charges on trillions of dollars of debt are poised to balloon. 

---

https://tinyurl.com/2rd9wv52

---

OPPORTUNITY TO ACCESS MARK LEIBOVIT’S PROPRIETARY VOLUME REVERSAL INDICATOR – THIS IS THE ONLY PLACE TO DO IT!

https://www.metastock.com/products/thirdparty/?3PC-ADD-VRIS

COME ON, DAD. IT’S TIME TO EAT

DISCLAIMER:

[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]