WELCOME TO LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS – THURSDAY – AUGUST 15, 2024

https://www.howestreet.com/2024/08/us-industrial-production-drop-a-concern-mark-leibovit/

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U.S. Stocks Finish Choppy Trading Day Mostly Higher

Stocks turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Wednesday but managed to end the day mostly higher. With the upward move, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both closed higher for the fifth consecutive session.

The major averages bounced back and forth across the unchanged line before closing in positive territory. The Dow climbed 242.75 points or 0.6 percent to 40,008.39 and the S&P 500 rose 20.78 points or 0.4 percent to 5,455.21, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a more modest gain, inching up 4.99 points or less than a tenth of a percent to 17,192.60.

The choppy trading on Wall Street came after the Labor Department released its highly anticipated report on consumer price inflation in the month of July.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in July after edging down by 0.1 percent in June. The modest increase by consumer prices matched expectations.

Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, also crept up by 0.2 percent in July after inching up by 0.1 percent in June. The uptick by core consumer prices was also in line with economist estimates.

Meanwhile, the report said the annual rate of consumer price growth slowed slightly to 2.9 percent in July from 3.0 percent in June. Economists had expected the pace of growth to remain unchanged.

The annual rate of core consumer price growth also slipped to 3.2 percent in July from 3.3 percent in June, in line with expectations.

While the slowdowns by the annual rates of price growth suggest the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates next month, traders may have felt the chances of a rate cut were already priced into the markets after Tuesday’s rally.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 64.5 chance the Fed will lower rates by a quarter point and a 35.5 percent chance of a half point rate cut.

“Investors and policymakers alike will find this report mostly good for markets and the economy,” said Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist for LPL Financial. “As inflation decelerates, the Fed can legitimately cut rates yet keep policy restrictive overall.”

“Unless the global economy experiences another shock, the Fed will most likely cut rates by a quarter percent in September,” he added. “The probability of the Fed cutting by a half percent is still elevated since investors are still somewhat skittish from recent events.”

Traders may also have been reluctant to continue making significant moves ahead of the release of a slew of U.S. economic data on Thursday, including reports on weekly jobless claims, retail sales and industrial production.

Reflecting the lackluster performance by the broader markets, most of the major sectors ended the day showing only modest moves on the day.

Brokerage stocks have showed a strong move to the upside, however, with the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index surging by 2.1 percent.

Significant strength was also visible among telecom stocks, as reflected by the 1.9 percent jump by the NYSE Arca North American Telecom Index.

Networking and banking stocks also saw some strength, while steel stocks moved notably lower, dragging the NYSE Arca Steel Index down by 1.1 percent.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region turned in a mixed performance during trading on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index climbed by 0.6 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index slid by 0.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets all moved to the upside on the day. While the French CAC 40 Index advanced by 0.8 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index increased by 0.6 percent and the German DAX Index rose by 0.4 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries extended a recent upward trend following the latest inflation data. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell 3.2 basis points to 3.820 percent.

Looking Ahead

While reaction to the data deluge is likely drive trading on Thursday, traders are also likely to keep an eye on earnings news from retail giant Walmart (WMT), which is due to release its quarterly results before the start of trading.

 

 

 

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Yes, that’s a cartoon of me.  Louis Rukeyser had us dressed up in ‘elf’ costumes on the screen broadcast each week.  I’ve dated myself. That occurred for me between 1988-1996.  Lou didn’t like any bearish comments, so myself and other elves got dumped in 1996.  

WHO am I?

MARK LEIBOVIT is Chief Market Strategist for LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS  a/k/a VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (TM) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.

Mark’s extensive media television profile includes seven years as a consultant ‘Elf’ on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week” television program, and over thirty years as a Market Monitor guest for PBS “The Nightly Business Report”.  He also has appeared on Fox Business News, CNBC, BNN (Canada), and Bloomberg, and has been interviewed in Barrons, Business Week, Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks.

In the January 2, 2020 edition of TIMER DIGEST MAGAZINE, Mark Leibovit was ranked the #1 U.S. Stock Market Timer and was previously ranked  #1 Intermediate U.S. Market Timer for the ten year period December, 1997 to 2007.

He was a ‘Market Maker’ on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Midwest Options Exchange and then went on to work in the Research department of two Chicago based brokerage firms.  Mr. Leibovit now publishes a series of newsletters at www.LeibovitVRNewsletters.com.   He became a member of the Market Technicians Association in 1982.

Mr. Leibovit’s specialty is Volume Analysis and his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. He has historical experience recognizing, bull and bear markets and signaling alerts prior to market crashes. His indicator is currently available on the Metastock platform.

His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis, The Trader’s Book of Volume published by McGraw-Hill is a definitive guide to volume trading.  It is now also published in Chinese.  Mark has appeared in speaking engagements and seminars in the U.S. and Canada.

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DANGER DANGER WILL ROBINSON

La Niña can impact weather around the world. For example, in 2024, NOAA projected a 60% chance that La Niña would develop between June and August, which could increase the chances of a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season.

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I USE JOEL WALLACH’S SUPPLEMENTS EVERY DAY.  MAY AGAIN PROVIDE A LINK TO PURCHASE THEM HERE

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