U.S. MARKETS: GENERAL COMMENTARY
U.S. stocks turned weak after a firm start on Friday, and among the major averages, the Nasdaq managed to settle slightly higher, while the Dow and the S&P 500 ended on a negative note.
Concerns over the prospect of a government shutdown, and the outlook about interest rates rendered the mood cautious, prompting investors to lighten commitments.
Activity was mostly stock specific with earnings updates and other corporate news providing some direction.
The Dow, which rose to 33,893.68 in early trades, ended the day’s session at 33,507.50, losing 158.84 points or 0.47 percent. The S&P 500 ended down 11.65 points or 0.27 percent at 4,288.05, while the Nasdaq settled at 13,219.32, gaining 18.05 points or 0.14 percent.
The Dow shed about 2.7 percent in the third quarter, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted quarterly losses of 3.7 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively.
Nike climbed nearly 7 percent after the company reported a first-quarter bottomline of $1.45 billion, or $0.94 per share, compared with $1.47 billion, or $0.93 per share in last year’s first quarter.
Carnival shares dropped about 5 percent with cost pressures outweighing the company’s upbeat forecast.
Travelers Companies, JP Morgan, General Electric, Walmart, Hewlett Packard, Honeywell International, Caterpillar, Merck and Chevron shed 1 to 3 percent.
Wallgreens Boots Alliance surged nearly 6 percent. Micron Technology, Pfizer, Accenture, Tesla, Intel, Walt Disney, Microsoft and Nvidia posted sharp to moderate gains.
In economic news, a report released by the Commerce Department showed personal income in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of August, climbing by 0.4 percent after rising by 0.2 percent in July.
The Commerce Department said personal spending also increased by 0.4 percent in August after jumping by an upwardly revised 0.9 percent in July.
Economists had expected personal spending to rise by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.8 percent advance originally reported for the previous month.
The report also said the annual rate of consumer price growth accelerated to 3.5 percent in August from 3.4 percent in July. The modest acceleration matched economist estimates.
Meanwhile, the annual rate of growth by core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, slowed to 3.9 percent in August from 4.3 percent in July. The slowdown also matched expectations.
A report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) fell to 44.1 in September, from 48.7 in August, contracting for the 13th consecutive month.
The University of Michigan said in its report that the consumer sentiment in the U.S. was revised higher to 68.1 in September from a preliminary 67.7.
In overseas trading, Asian stocks ended mostly higher on Friday, with Hong Kong leading regional gains. Trading volumes were thin due to holidays in mainland China and South Korea.
Underlying sentiment was underpinned by a fall in oil prices and declining bond yields ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later in the day.
European stocks closed broadly higher on Friday, but most of the markets in the region still posted sharp losses for the July – September quarter.
The pan European Stoxx 600 gained 0.38 percent. Germany’s DAX climbed 0.41 percent, France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.26 percent, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.08 percent.
END OF THE MONTH ‘WINDOW DRESSING’ BOUNCE TIED TO GEOCOSMIC CYCLES (AUTUMNAL EQUINOX, FULL MOON, SUPPORT AT THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE, AND END OF THE MONTH ‘WINDOW DRESSING’ AND POSSIBLY A RECENT DOWNSIDE GAP
Mark Leibovit: How to Protect Investments With Unpredictable US Government – Sept. 28, 2023
https://tinyurl.com/muynvd3v
CRYPTO UPDATE AS OF SEPTEMBER 29:
CANNABIS MOVERS AND SHAKERS SEPTEMBER 29:
What happens if the government shuts down: An illustrated guide-CNN
With Congress barreling toward a government shutdown, many Americans are wondering how it could affect them. Here’s a guide to what you can expect.
What is a government shutdown?
A government shutdown happens when Congress doesn’t approve funding for the federal government by the time the new fiscal year starts on October 1. Each year, Congress must pass the 12 appropriation bills that make up the discretionary spending budget and set funding levels for federal agencies.
What happens during a government shutdown?
If lawmakers fail to enact all or some of the appropriation bills, many government operations grind to a halt, resulting in a full or partial government shutdown until Congress acts. However, government functions that are deemed essential will continue.
Each federal agency comes up with a contingency plan that outlines which of its functions will continue during a shutdown and which will stop, as well as how many of its employees will continue working and how many will be furloughed until the shutdown ends.
What it means for you
Because many federal workers are off the job during a government shutdown, many services are stopped or slowed, disturbing the day-to-day life for many Americans.
Notably, Social Security payments to seniors, Americans with disabilities and others would continue to be distributed. The Postal Service will also continue regular service.
Here are some examples of how a shutdown could affect you.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Says This Is the Number One Risk Threatening Global Economy – And It’s Not Inflation – The Daily Hodl
Jamie Dimon is comparing the current American market sentiment to a sugar high and is concerned many are unprepared for what is on the horizon. He advises investors to batten down the hatches and prepare for some hardship ahead.
by Henry Kanapi
JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon says that the global economy is facing a far greater risk than persistent inflation or high interest rates.
In a new interview on CNBC India, Dimon says that people should prepare for higher oil and gas prices as well as higher interest rates.
While Dimon is urging people and businesses to be ready for higher energy costs along with tight monetary policies, he highlights that his number one concern is the current geopolitical situation.
According to Dimon, the war in Ukraine is negatively impacting oil, gas and food prices. He also notes that it is “affecting all global relationships.”
“I think the geopolitical situation is the thing that most concerns me, and we don’t know the effect of that on the economy. Again, I think the humanitarian part – that’s far more important.
I think it’s very important for the future of the free democratic world. We may be at an inflection point for the free democratic world. That’s how seriously I take it…
We have dealt with inflation before, we have dealt with deficits before [and] we have dealt with recessions before. We haven’t really seen something like this pretty much since World War II … There is no playbook.”
The SEC is Snooping on All Your Trades
EDITOR’S NOTE: The War on Cash is fought on a variety of fronts but the end result is always a loss of liberty and privacy for us all. The SEC’s sharing of the data on every market move we make is just the latest strategy. While the tracking should be alarming in and of itself, the threat of this information being open to hacking is of even greater concern. A centralized database to track every American investor is, without question, an unconstitutional data grab; but can it be stopped?
What’s in Your Portfolio? The SEC is Snooping on All Your Trades -MishTalk.com
portfolioThe SEC is now tracking your stock trades by your Social Security Number. It shares the data with 3,000 outside agencies.
In 2012 the SEC approved a new rule requiring a Consolidated Audit Trail to Monitor and Analyze Trading Activity.
“A consolidated audit trail that accurately tracks orders throughout their lifecycle and identifies the broker-dealers handling them will provide us with an unprecedented ability to effectively oversee the markets we regulate,” said SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro.
The new rule becomes effective 60 days after its publication in the Federal Register. SROs are required to submit the NMS plan to the Commission within 270 days of the rule’s publication in the Federal Register. Once the Commission approves the NMS plan, the SROs are required to report the required data to the central repository within one year, and members of the SROs are required to report within two years. Certain small broker-dealers will have up to three years to report the data.
This ruling was in response to a 2010 flash crash and quietly sat for years. The SEC is now following through.
The scope of the Consolidated Audit Trail, or CAT, a regulation the SEC issued in 2016 but implemented only recently, is breathtaking and unprecedented. In the words of the SEC press release, the regulation instructs regulated financial institutions to identify “every order, cancellation, modification and trade execution for all exchange-listed equities and options across all U.S. markets.”
‘Bond King’ Jeffrey Gundlach warns of ‘demons on the horizon’ for stocks – and predicts a dollar disaster and recession next year -Yahoo! Finance
by Theron Mohamed
Jeffrey Gundlach issued a slew of warnings about the stock market, the US dollar, and an upcoming recession during the Future Proof conference last week.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have surged 16% and 31% respectively this year, as investors price in the potential boost to companies from artificial intelligence and future cuts to interest rates. However, they’re overlooking “demons on the horizon,” Gundlach cautioned.
The billionaire CEO of DoubleLine Capital highlighted signs of a faltering US economy as a key concern. He pointed to a recent wave of corporate layoffs, and consumers feeling the squeeze from record amounts of credit-card debt as red flags. He also noted the chilling effect of higher mortgage rates on the housing market, and the challenge for small businesses of having to refinance their debts at much higher interest rates.
“The economy is definitely weakening,” Gundlach said. “I look for one next year, and I think the indicators are getting really convincing in that regard,” he said about the prospect of a recession.
The fund manager — whose nickname is the “Bond King” — also argued that economic growth has been shored up this year by a dangerous and unsustainable amount of government spending.
“The economy is only growing because we have a budget deficit that is 8% of GDP,” he said. “It’s about the same today as the depths of the global financial crisis.”
Gundlach underscored that the federal government financed most of its spending at rock-bottom rates. However, the Federal Reserve’s war on inflation has seen it hike rates from nearly zero to over 5% since last spring, meaning the government’s interest charges on trillions of dollars of debt are poised to balloon.
What about the January Barometer?
The January Barometer calls for a positive year-end outcome, but a lot can happen between now and then. Please check with previous editions discussing the calculation of the Barometer.
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OPPORTUNITY TO ACCESS MARK LEIBOVIT’S PROPRIETARY VOLUME REVERSAL INDICATOR – THIS IS THE ONLY PLACE TO DO IT!
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COME ON, DAD. IT’S TIME TO EAT
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