https://www.howestreet.com/2023/11/seasonality-could-boost-markets-to-a-record-mark-leibovit/
SEASONALITY COULD BOOST MARKETS TO A RECORD
U.S. MARKETS:
Following the sharp pullback seen Thursday afternoon, stocks showed a substantial move back to the upside during trading on Friday. The Nasdaq surged to a nearly two-month closing high, while the Dow and the S&P 500 reached their best closing levels in well over a month.
The major averages saw further upside going into the close, ending the session near their best levels of the day. The Nasdaq soared 276.66 points or 2.1 percent to 13,798.11, the S&P 500 spiked 67.89 points or 1.6 percent to 4,415.24 and the Dow jumped 391.16 points or 1.2 percent to 34,283.10.
For the week, the Nasdaq shot up by 2.4 percent, the S&P 500 advanced by 1.3 percent and the Dow climbed by 0.7 percent.
The rally on Wall Street came as traders shrugged off concerns about the outlook for interest rates sparked by remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.
Powell said the Fed is not yet confident rates are at a sufficiently restrictive level to bring inflation down to 2 percent and warned the central bank would not hesitate to resume raising rates.
Despite Powell's comments, CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently still suggests the Fed is likely to leave interest rates over the next several months before cutting rates in mid-2024.
Stocks initially benefited from a pullback by treasury yields, which surged in afternoon trading on Thursday following a disappointing thirty-year bond auction as well as Powell's comments.
However, the major averages continued to advance over the course of the session even though yields rebounded.
On the U.S. economic front, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index slid to 60.4 in November from 63.8 in October. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 63.7.
The consumer sentiment index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, falling to its lowest level since hitting 59.0 in May.
The report also said year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.4 percent in November from 4.2 percent in October, reaching the highest level since hitting 4.7 percent in April.
Long-run inflation expectations also increased from 3.0 percent in October to 3.2 percent in November, marking the highest reading since 2011.
Sector News
Semiconductor stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the session, resulting in a 4.0 percent spike by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
Significant strength was also visible among software stocks, with the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index surging by 2.5 percent to its best intraday level in well over a year.
Housing stocks also showed a strong move to the upside on the day, driving the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index up by 1.8 percent.
Retail, computer hardware, networking and energy stocks also saw notable strength, moving higher along with most of the other major sectors.
Other Markets
In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly lower during trading on Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index dipped by 0.2 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index tumbled by 1.8 percent.
The major European markets also showed significant moves to downside on the day. While the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index slumped by 1.3 percent, the French CAC 40 Index slid by 1.0 percent and the German DAX Index fell by 0.8 percent.
In the bond market, treasuries pulled back near the unchanged line after seeing early strength. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by less than a basis point to 4.628 percent.
Looking Ahead
Inflation data will be in the spotlight next week, with reports on consumer and producer prices likely to be in focus as traders look for additional clues about the outlook for interest rates.
On the earnings front, retail giants Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD) and Target (TGT) are among the companies due to report their quarterly results next week along with networking giant Cisco (CSCO).
VTI -TOTAL MARKET INDEX - WEEKLY. AT A DOWNTREND LINE. BREAKOUT APPEARS UNDERWAY
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CRYPTO UPDATE AS OF NOVEMBER 10, 2023:
BRICS: Economist Predicts ‘Messy’ Ending for the US Dollar -Watcher.guru
FranklinAmid the economic alliance’s de-dollarization efforts, the BRICS bloc has led one economist to predict a “messy” ending for the US dollar. Indeed, Kit Juckes of Societe Generale predicted that the rest of 2023 would arrive with a slowdown for the declining currency amid the growing economic alliance.
As the bloc has embraced alternative currencies, Juckes specifically predicted that the “dollar is set to fall back.” Moreover, he stated that the status of the greenback is set to take a different turn in the upcoming year. Subsequently, he predicts a far weaker state as it enters 2024.
There is little argument to be made against the prominence of the US dollar over the last twenty years. The currency has firmly established itself as a gold standard, operating as the global reserve currency for that time frame. However, with the arrival of BRICS, and a greater international desire to lessen its prevalence, things are changing. Subsequently, they could get ugly.
Amid BRICS de-dollarization initiatives, economist Kit Juckes has predicted a “messy” ending for the US dollar. Indeed, Juckes discussed the last two decades of dominance, and how current circumstances may well have them come to a gradual halt over the next several years.
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FROM 2007 - REP RON PAUL:
THE CASE FOR ABOLISHING THE FEDERAL RESERVE
G EDWARD GRIFFIN
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The President's Working Group on Financial Markets
known colloquially as the Plunge Protection Team, or "(PPT)" was created by Executive Order 12631,[1] signed on March 18, 1988, by United States President Ronald Reagan.
As established by the executive order, the Working Group has three purposes and functions:
"(a) Recognizing the goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence, the Working Group shall identify and consider:
(1) the major issues raised by the numerous studies on the events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987, and any of those recommendations that have the potential to achieve the goals noted above; and
(2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations.
(b) The Working Group shall consult, as appropriate, with representatives of the various exchanges, clearinghouses, self-regulatory bodies, and with major market participants to determine private sector solutions wherever possible.
(c) The Working Group shall report to the President initially within 60 days (and periodically thereafter) on its progress and, if appropriate, its views on any recommended legislative changes."
Plunge Protection Team
"Plunge Protection Team" was originally the headline for an article in The Washington Post on February 23, 1997, and has since been used by some as an informal term to refer to the Working Group. Initially, the term was used to express the opinion that the Working Group was being used to prop up the stock markets during downturns.[5 Financial writers for British newspapers The Observer and The Daily Telegraph, along with U.S. Congressman Ron Paul, writers Kevin Phillips (who claims "no personal firsthand knowledge" and John Crudele,[8] have charged the Working Group with going beyond their legal mandate.[failed verification] Charles Biderman, head of TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks money flow in the equities market, suspected that following the 2008 financial crisis the Federal Reserve or U.S. government was supporting the stock market. He stated that "If the money to boost stock prices did not come from the traditional players, it had to have come from somewhere else" and "Why not support the stock market as well? Moreover, several officials have suggested the government should support stock prices."
In August 2005, Sprott Asset Management released a report that argued that there is little doubt that the PPT intervened to protect the stock market.[10] However, these articles usually refer to the Working Group using moral suasion to attempt to convince banks to buy stock index futures.
Former Federal Reserve Board member Robert Heller, in the Wall Street Journal, opined that "Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole." Author Kevin Phillips wrote in his 2008 book Bad Money that while he had no interest "in becoming a conspiracy investigator", he nevertheless drew the conclusion that "some kind of high-level decision seems to have been reached in Washington to loosely institutionalize a rescue mechanism for the stock market akin to that pursued...to safeguard major U.S. banks from exposure to domestic and foreign loan and currency crises." Phillips infers that the simplest way for the Working Group to intervene in market plunges would be through buying stock market index futures contracts, either in cooperation with major banks or through trading desks at the U.S. Treasury or Federal Reserve.
The Exchange Stabilization Fund protects the FED.
We already know the FED is lying that raising interest rates will reduce price inflation. The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) is an emergency reserve account that can be used by the U.S. Department of Treasury to mitigate instability in various financial sectors, including credit, securities, and foreign exchange markets. The U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund was established at the Treasury Department by a provision in the Gold Reserve Act of 1934.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Gold market manipulation: Why, how, and how long? (2021 edition)
https://gata.org/node/20925
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