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US Market Commentary
Nasdaq, S&P 500 Hit New Record Highs Amid Extended Rebound On Wall Street
Extending the rebound seen during Wednesday’s session, stocks moved sharply higher during trading on Thursday. The major averages further offset the notable pullback seen to start the week, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 bouncing back
to record intraday highs.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 241.83 points or 1.5 percent to 16,273.38, ending the day just shy of last Friday’s record closing high, while the S&P 500 managed to set a new record closing high, jumping 52.60 points or 1.0 percent to
5,157.36. The narrower Dow posted a more modest gain, rising 130.30 points or 0.3 percent to 38,791.35.
The extended rebound on Wall Street came as optimism about the outlook for interest rates continued to inspire traders to get back into the markets following the pullback seen on Monday and Tuesday.
After saying rate cuts were likely this year during Congressional testimony on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell doubled-down during remarks today, saying cuts “can and will” begin this year.
While Powell also reiterated officials needs “greater confidence” inflation is slowing, traders remain optimistic the Fed will begin cutting rates in June.
Adding to the optimism about interest rates, the European Central Bank lowered its annual inflation forecast while announcing its widely expected decision to leave rates unchanged.
Potentially adding to the buying interest on Wall Street, treasury yields saw further downside on the day, with the ten-year yield falling to its lowest closing level in a month.
Sector News
Semiconductor stocks led the way higher, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soaring by 3.4 percent to a record closing high.
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) shot up by 4.5 percent after Mizuho Securities raised its price target on the AI darling to $1,000 per share, while Micron (MU) surged by 3.6 percent after Stifel upgraded its rating on the chipmaker’s stock to
Buy from Hold.
Considerable strength was also visible among oil service stocks, as reflected by the 1.9 percent jump by the Philadelphia Oil Service Index. The strength in the sector came despite a modest decrease by the price of crude oil.
Housing stocks also showed a strong move to the upside, driving the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index up by 1.6 percent to a record closing high.
Software, gold and retail stocks also saw notable strength on the day, while networking stocks were among the few groups to buck the uptrend.
Economic News
In U.S. economic news, the Labor Department released a report showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits came in unchanged from an upwardly revised level in the week ended March 2nd.
The Labor Department said initial jobless claims came in at 217,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised level.
Economists had expected jobless claims to come in unchanged compared to the 215,000 originally reported for the previous week.
The Commerce Department also released a report showing the U.S. trade deficit widened in the month of January amid a jump in the value of imports.
The report said the trade deficit increased to $67.4 billion in January from a revised $64.2 billion in December.
Economists had expected the trade deficit to widen to $63.5 billion from the $62.2 billion originally reported for the previous month.
The wider trade deficit came as the value of imports jumped by 1.1 percent to $324.6 billion, while the value of exports inched up by 0.1 percent to $257.2 billion.
A separate Labor Department report said the surge in labor productivity in the fourth quarter was unrevised at 3.2 percent, while the increase in unit labor costs was downwardly revised to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent.
Other Markets
In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region turned in a mixed performance on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slumped by 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively, while Australia’s
S&P/ASX 200 Index rose by 0.4 percent.
Meanwhile, the major European markets all moved to the upside on the day. While the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index edged up by 0.2 percent, the German DAX Index and the French CAC 40 Index advanced by 0.7 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively.
In the bond market, treasuries showed a lack of direction before eventually closing modestly higher. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by 1.2 basis points to a one-month
closing low of 4.092 percent.
Looking Ahead
Trading on Friday is likely to be driven by reaction to the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report for February and its impact on the outlook for interest rates.
Economists currently expect employment to jump by 200,000 jobs in February after surging by 353,000 jobs in January, while the unemployment rate is expected to come in unchanged at 3.7 percent.
Bank of America Issues Warning of a US Dollar Collapse -watcher.guru
by Vinod Dsouza
The US national debt is now growing by $1 trillion every 100 days since 2023. The uncontrolled debt could lead to a financial disaster wreaking havoc not only in the US but across the world. BRICS and other developing countries are worried that a US dollar debt could make their native economies crash. Keeping the US dollar in reserves is now seen as a threat that could undo years of financial stability.
The US dollar national debt now touched a new high of $34.4 trillion and is barely under control. Elected representatives at Capitol Hill and officials from the Federal Reserve are unable to tame the ever-growing debt.
Amid the economic turbulence, Bank of America has issued a warning about a possible US dollar collapse. Moreover, this allows BRICS to spread the de-dollarization initiative across the world.
BRICS: Growing Debt Risks Exposure of a US Dollar Collapse, Warns Bank of America
Bank of America warned in the latest piece that the US dollar and economy face a “blowout year” in 2024. The growing national debt is the main reason why the US economy could be poised to head south. “The US national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days,” Michael Hartnett, Chief Strategist of Bank of America wrote.
Hartnett warned that the collapse of the US dollar is imminent if the debt grows out of control this year. “This doesn’t end well,” wrote Genevieve Roch-Decter, a former Asset Manager at the Grit Capital. Also, BRICS is now waiting for a possible US dollar decline and could advance with a new currency in the global market.
Top real estate CEO warns ‘500 or more’ banks will either fail or be consolidated over the next two years -Yahoo! Finance
The talking heads at the Fed want us to believe our banking woes are behind us, but our clients continue to share their concerns that we’ve only seen the beginning. More and more experts in this sector are sounding an alarm that the coming commercial real estate correction will be devastating for banks. We tend to agree.
by Will Daniel
Ever since four regional banks holding a combined $532 billion in assets—headlined by Silicon Valley Bank—failed in March 2023, regional banks have been under scrutiny from regulators. And given the commercial real estate (CRE) industry’s issues, a key focus has been on banks with the most exposure to the volatile sector.
In an upcoming white paper seen exclusively by Fortune, RXR CEO Scott Rechler described how regional banks will face a “slow-moving train wreck” as waves of commercial real estate loans mature over the next few years. Rechler has faith that many commercial real estate owners, operators, and lenders will figure out a way to overcome the challenges facing them, but he’s more skeptical about regional banks. “I think there’s going to be…500 or more fewer banks in the U.S. over the next two years,” he said. “I’m not saying they’re all going to fail, but they’re going to be forced into consolidation if they don’t fail.”
“They don’t have a business model that’s going to enable them to stand alone, and be competitive, and retain deposits and service customers the way that they have,” he added.
Regulators’ fears about regional banks with exposure to CRE aren’t unfounded, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) being the prime example. Shares of NYCB have plummeted roughly 78% from their July 2023 peak due to concerns over the bank’s CRE exposure. The pain accelerated after NYCB reported a surprise fourth-quarter loss and slashed its dividend on Jan. 31, 2024, because it had to put away more money to cover its CRE holdings.
For Rechler, regional banks’ CRE exposure could even end up being a “systemic issue.”
$1 Trillion in 100 Days! -Daily Reckoning
What used to take 205 years, now takes 100 days! This sounds like an innovation in efficiency, but sadly, it’s just the astounding growth rate of the US debt. Can we continue on this trajectory? It seems impossible, but when have you ever known the government to slow down spending?
by Brian Maher
How does a man descend into bankruptcy?
Gradually — then suddenly — in Mr. Hemingway’s famous telling.
The United States government has passed beyond bankruptcy’s gradual phase.
It has entered bankruptcy’s sudden phase.
Mr. Michael Hartnett, Bank of America’s chief strategist:
“The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days.”
United States debt first scaled $1 trillion 205 years after its inception. And today?
The work of 205 years presently reduces to 100 days.
$1 trillion every 100 days? Impossible — but there you have it: Debt Goes Exponential
And so today a pearl of sorrow courses down our crimson cheek… a mournful tear upon the ashes of the nation’s finances.
We fear its debt is assuming the hellacious form of a parabola.
That is, the business begins to assume an exponential aspect.
If only the nation’s gross domestic product could maintain pace with its parabolic and exponential debt.
It cannot… alas.
As gold scales all-time highs, Wall Street analysts say it has even further to go
Gold is headed higher and it’s not stopping soon. As we kick off a very uncertain year, gold should shine until at least November, and likely even longer based on who is elected.
by Jenni Reid
Gold prices pushed higher Tuesday after futures pricing for the precious metal notched fresh records in the previous two sessions — with analysts seeing strength lasting at least into the second half of the year.
The gold contract for April on Monday closed above $2,100 per ounce for the first time, and was up 0.37% at $2,134.2 at 1:15 p.m. in London. Spot gold was trading 0.7% higher at $2,129, though market-watchers note that in real terms, adjusted for inflation, gold is well below past peaks.
In a Monday note, analysts at Citi described themselves as “medium-term bullion bulls,” calling a 25% probability of gold averaging a record $2,300 per ounce in the second half. Their base case remains $2,150, and they reiterated a “wildcard” call for trade reaching $3,000 over the next 12 to 16 months.
Citi describes gold as a developed market “recession hedge,” and increasingly see tailwinds from uncertainty around the U.S. election in November.
Analysts at Berenberg also noted Monday that a Donald Trump victory in the election would provide a “major positive for gold,” with further support for the safe-haven asset from volatility around the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza
America on Eve of Banking Crisis, Warns Ex-IMF Official, With Hundreds of Lenders at Risk of Failure -The Daily Hodl
by Alex Richardson
A former IMF official believes the U.S. Federal Reserve has pushed America to the brink of another banking crisis.
Desmond Lachman, who was deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department, says in a new blog post for public policy think tank The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) that Fed Chair
Jerome Powell is “inviting a banking crisis.”
With banks already under pressure, Lachman says the Fed is making matters worse by keeping monetary policy tight, and liquidity thin.
The ex-IMF official says it’s a mistake that’s significantly raised the odds of a hard landing for the US economy while pushing lenders to the eve of a fresh banking crisis.
“In 2021, the Fed chose to ignore the markedly expansionary fiscal policy stance when it kept flooding the market with liquidity. The net result was a surge in inflation by June 2022 to a multi-decade high of over 9%.
Today, it seems to be making the opposite mistake of keeping monetary policy tight on the eve of a banking crisis at home and a weakening economic situation abroad. Unfortunately, this raises the risk of a hard economic landing within
the next year or so.”
Lachman warns that commercial real estate, which makes up a major portion of US banks’ loan portfolios, is a clear Achilles heel for the industry that could result in the failure of around 385 small and medium-sized banks.
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