THE VR FORECASTER - ANNUAL FORECAST MODEL WILL BE PUBLISHED BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK IN FEBRUARY
HERE IS THE 2023 ANNUAL FORECAST MODEL WITH THE 'RESULTS' SUPERIMPOSED
U.S. Stocks Show Strong Move Back To The Upside After Yesterday's Sell-Off
Following the sell-off seen in the previous session, stocks showed a strong move back to the upside during trading on Thursday. The major averages fluctuated early in the session but climbed firmly into positive territory as the day progressed.
The major averages finished the session near their best levels of the day. The Dow jumped 369.54 points or 1.0 percent to 38,519.84, the Nasdaq surged 197.63 points or 1.3 percent to 15,361.64 and the S&P 500 shot up 60.54 points or 1.3 percent to 4,906.19.
The rebound on Wall Street came as some traders saw the sell-off on Wednesday as a buying opportunity amid optimism the markets will resume the upward trend seen throughout much of January.
While the Federal Reserve's signals that an interest rate cut in March is unlikely contributed to Wednesday's nosedive, economists continue to believe it is a matter of "when, not if" the central bank will eventually lower rates.
CME Group's FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a relatively modest 37.5 percent chance of a March rate cut but a nearly 100 percent chance rates will be lower by early May.
A continued decrease by treasury yields may also have contributed to the buying interest, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note falling to its lowest levels in over a month.
In U.S. economic news, the Labor Department released a report showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly saw a modest increase in the week ended January 27th.
The Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose to 224,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level of 215,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 212,000 from the 214,000 originally reported for the previous week.
On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its more closely watched report on employment in the month of January.
Economists currently expect employment to increase by 180,000 jobs in January after jumping by 216,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate is expected to inch up to 3.8 percent from 3.7 percent.
Meanwhile, a reading on U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly increased in the month of January but continues to indicate contraction, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday.
The ISM said its manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1 in January from a downwardly revised 47.1 in December. While a reading below 50 still indicates contraction, economists had expected the index to edge down to 47.0 from the 47.4 originally reported for the previous month.
With the unexpected increase, the manufacturing PMI reached its highest reading since hitting 50.0 in October 2022.
Gold stocks showed a substantial move to the upside on the day, driving the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index up by 3.8 percent.
The rally by gold stocks came amid a modest increase by the price of the precious metal, with gold for April delivery inching up $3.70 to $2,071.10 an ounce.
Considerable strength was also visible among computer hardware stocks, as reflected by the 2.7 percent gain posted by the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index.
Retail, airline and housing stocks also showed strong moves to the upside, while banking stocks saw significant weakness, dragging the KBW Bank Index down by 1.7 percent.
In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region turned in another mixed performance during trading on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index slid by 0.8 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.5 percent.
Meanwhile, the major European markets all moved to the downside on the day. While the French CAC 40 Index slumped by 0.9 percent, the German DAX Index fell by 0.3 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index edged down by 0.1 percent.
In the bond market, treasuries moved sharply higher, extending a recent upward trend. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, tumbled 10.4 basis points to a one-month closing low of 3.863 percent.
The monthly jobs report is likely to be in the spotlight on Friday, although trading may also be impacted by reaction to earnings news from Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Meta Platforms (META), which are releasing their quarterly results after the close of today's trading.
ALSO WATCHING GROUNDHOG DAY - FEBRUARY 2~ MARKETS TEND TO DECLINE TWO WEEKS EITHER SIDE OF GROUNDHOG DAY
February 10: CHINESE NEW YAR
FOMC MEETINGS 2024
NEXT PODCAST ON 'THIS WEEK IN MONDAY' ON THE WEEKEND
CRYPTO UPDATE AS OF FEBRUARY 1, 2024:
OPPORTUNITY TO ACCESS MARK LEIBOVIT'S PROPRIETARY VOLUME REVERSAL INDICATOR - THIS IS THE ONLY PLACE TO DO IT!
COME ON, DAD. IT'S TIME TO EAT
WE ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND DO NOT PROVIDE FINANCIAL ADVICE
The website, LeibovitVRNewsletters.com, is published by LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC.
In using LeibovitVRnewsletters.com (a/k/a LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC) you agree to these Terms & Conditions governing the use of the service. These Terms & Conditions are subject to change without notice. We are publishers and are not registered as a broker-dealer or investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities authority.
All stocks and ETFs discussed are HYPOTHETICAL and not actual trades whose actual execution may differ markedly from prices posted on the website and in emails. This may be due internet connectivity, quote delays, data entry errors and other market conditions. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations as to liquidity and execution among other variables. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR PROFITABLE TRADING RESULTS.
All investments are subject to risk, which should be considered on an individual basis before making any investment decision. We are not responsible for errors and omissions. These publications are intended solely for information and educational purposes only and the content within is not to be construed, under any circumstances, as an offer to buy or to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell or trade in any commodities or securities named within.
All commentary is provided for educational purposes only. This material is based upon information we consider reliable. However, accuracy is not guaranteed. Subscribers should always do their own investigation before investing in any security. Furthermore, you cannot be assured that your will profit or that any losses can or will be limited. It is important to know that no guarantee of any kind is implied nor possible where projections of future conditions in the markets are attempted.
Stocks and ETFs may be held by principals of LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC whose personal investment decisions including entry and exit points may differ from guidelines posted.
LeibovitVRNewsletters.com cannot and do not assess, verify or guarantee the suitability or profitability of any particular investment. You bear responsibility for your own investment research and decisions and should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment. As an express condition of using this service and anytime after ending the service, you agree not to hold LeibovitVRNewsletters.com or any employees liable for trading losses, lost profits or other damages resulting from your use of information on the Site in any form (Web-based, email-based, or downloadable software), and you agree to indemnify and hold LeibovitVRNewsletters.com and its employees harmless from and against any and all claims, losses, liabilities, costs, and expenses (including but not limited to attorneys' fees) arising from your violation of this agreement. This paragraph is not intended to limit rights available to you or to us that may be available under the federal securities laws.
For rights, permissions, subscription and customer service, contact the publisher at firstname.lastname@example.org or call at 928-282-1275 or mail to 10632 N. Scottsdale Road B-426, Scottsdale, AZ 85254.
The Leibovit Volume Reversal, Volume Reversal and Leibovit VR are registered trademarks.
© Copyright 2023. All rights reserved.