SINCE JULY 21, 1979

SINCE JULY 21, 1979

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The major averages pulled back off their highs in late-day trading but still closed in positive territory. The Nasdaq advanced 190.04 points or 0.8 percent to 23,827.49, the Dow climbed 161.78 points or 0.3 percent to 47,706.37 and the S&P 500 rose 15.73 points or 0.2 percent to 6,890.89.

The strength on Wall Street came as stocks continued to benefit from recent upward momentum, which led to the rally on Monday amid optimism about a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China.

News of a rare metals deal between the U.S. and Japan may have increased confidence ahead of President Donald Trump’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later this week.

However, traders seemed somewhat reluctant to make more significant moves ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

While the Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates by another quarter point, traders will be looking to the accompanying statement as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting comments for clues about the likelihood of further rate cuts.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 90.8 percent chance the Fed will lower rates by another quarter point in December, but the views about the chances of further rate cuts in early 2026 are more mixed.

Traders are also looking ahead to the release of earnings news from a number of big-name tech companies, with Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSGFT) and Amazon (AMZN) due to report their quarterly results in the coming days.

In U.S. economic news, the Conference Board released a report showing a modest deterioration by consumer confidence in the month of October.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dipped to 94.6 in October from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September.

Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to slip to 93.4 from the 94.2 originally reported for the previous month.

Sector News

Networking stocks showed a strong move to the upside over the course of the session, driving the NYSE Arca Networking Index up by 1.6 percent to a record closing high.

Significant strength was also visible among steel stocks, as reflected by the 1.6 percent gain posted by the NYSE Arca Steel Index.

On the other hand, airline stocks moved sharply lower on the day, resulting in a 4.1 percent nosedive by the NYSE Arca Airline Index.

Commercial real estate, utilities and oil stocks also saw considerable weakness, limiting the upside for the broader markets.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly lower during trading on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index slid by 0.6 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index dipped by 0.2 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets turned in a mixed performance on the day. While the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.4 percent, the French CAC 40 Index fell by 0.3 percent and the German DAX Index edged down by 0.1 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries are seeing modest strength after ending the previous session roughly flat. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, is down by 1.4 basis points at 3.983 percent.

Looking Ahead

Trading on Wednesday is likely to be driven by reaction to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement and its impact on the outlook for interest rates.

The Big Cap Tech earnings ahead:

GOOG Oct 29, Wednesday

META Oct 29, Wednesday

MSFT Oct 29, Wednesday

AAPL Oct 30, Thursday

AMZN Oct 30, Thursday

NVDA Nov 19, Wednesday

AMD Nov 4, Tuesday

QCOM Nov 5, Wednesday

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The Big Lie: America Has Defaulted on Its Debt FIVE Times—And a SIXTH May Be Imminent

“Since 1789, the United States has paid all of our bills on time,” said former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

“In our history, we have never defaulted on our debt or failed to pay our bills,” said President Biden’s press secretary.

“… the United States has never defaulted on its debt,” wrote The Washington Post.

You hear it everywhere. The US has never defaulted.

It’s repeated by politicians. By bureaucrats. By the media. As if it were gospel.

But it’s not true.

By the simplest definition of default—failing to make promised payments—the US government has defaulted. Not once. Not twice. But five separate times.

And now, the US is on the edge of its sixth default.

Default #1: The War of 1812 and America’s First Debt Crisis
In 1814, the US government faced its first true debt crisis.

The country was locked in a draining war with Britain, blockades paralyzed trade, customs revenue had collapsed (the primary income source at the time), and the government was struggling to raise funds.

Congress authorized new borrowing and began issuing Treasury notes—essentially IOUs meant to circulate as money—but investors were skeptical and demand was weak.

A string of military defeats, capped by the burning of Washington in August 1814, only deepened doubts about the government’s solvency.

When Alexander Dallas took over as Treasury Secretary that October, he was blunt about the situation. He admitted that “the dividend on the funded debt has not been punctually paid; a large amount of treasury notes has already been dishonored.”

In plain terms, the US had failed to pay interest on its bonds and could not redeem its short-term notes as promised.

It was the US government’s first default.

Default #2: Lincoln’s Debt Crisis and the Civil War Fiat Scam
During the War Between the States (1861–1865), President Abraham Lincoln introduced a fiat paper currency known as “Greenbacks” to finance the war effort. This marked a major departure from the gold and silver-based system that had defined US money.

The war demanded enormous financial resources, but the government lacked sufficient gold and silver reserves to cover costs. Traditional borrowing through bond sales proved insufficient, and policymakers were reluctant to impose heavy taxation on the public.

In response, Congress passed the Legal Tender Act of 1862, authorizing the issuance of paper money not backed by gold or silver. These notes became known as “Greenbacks” due to their distinctive color and were declared legal tender for all debts.

Bondholders and lenders suffered real losses as they were forced to accept payment in depreciating paper currency. Creditors who had expected gold and silver were forced to accept Greenbacks.

The US government did not outright repudiate its debt, but it altered the terms of repayment, forcing creditors to take unbacked paper currency worth far less than they were promised in gold and silver.

It was the US government’s second default.

Default #3: Roosevelt Cancels the Gold Clauses in 1933
The Great Depression brought the next major default.

By 1933, the economy was collapsing, unemployment was at 25%, banks were failing by the thousands, and the dollar was tied to gold at $20.67 per ounce.

Many Treasury bonds—and countless private contracts—contained a “gold clause,” promising repayment in gold or the equivalent value. For bondholders, this was protection against devaluation.

When FDR came into office, he declared a bank holiday, suspended gold convertibility, and soon after outlawed private gold ownership.

In June 1933, Congress went further by nullifying all gold clauses in public and private contracts. That meant creditors who expected gold would instead be paid in paper dollars.

In 1934, the Gold Reserve Act raised the price of gold to $35 per ounce, cutting the dollar’s value by about 40%.

Bondholders were repaid, but in money worth far less than what the government had promised.

When Treasury securities had been sold in prior decades, the explicit agreement was that repayment would be made either in gold or in paper currency equivalent to a fixed gold weight. By nullifying these clauses, the Roosevelt administration changed the terms of repayment unilaterally. Creditors who expected gold—or the equivalent of $20.67 per ounce—were instead paid in paper dollars that had been devalued.

The so-called “Gold Clause Cases” of 1935 went to the Supreme Court. In Perry v. United States, the Court admitted that the government had broken its contracts, but ruled—by a narrow 5–4 vote—that creditors had no damages since they were repaid in legal-tender dollars.

It was a legal dodge that avoided labeling the move a default, but the substance was clear: the government changed the rules and forced creditors to accept less than they were owed.

It was the US government’s third default.

The truth is stark: the monetary system is self-destructing, and the people who run it know exactly how to turn that breakdown into control.

Their endgame is a digital system that monitors and manages every transaction—and anyone who isn’t prepared risks losing not only purchasing power but real freedom.

Default #4: The 1968 End of Silver Certificate Redemption
Silver certificates had been part of the American monetary system since 1878. They looked much like regular dollar bills but were labeled at the top with “Silver Certificate” and explicitly stated that they were “redeemable in silver to the bearer on demand.”

For decades, these certificates were as good as silver coin.

But by the 1960s, US silver stocks were dwindling. Rising silver prices made it increasingly expensive for the government to honor its pledge. Congress stopped issuing new silver certificates in 1963, but existing notes remained in circulation.

Then, in June 1968, the Treasury announced that silver certificates would no longer be redeemable for silver at all. Holders could still use them as legal tender, but the redemption promise—the feature that gave them unique credibility—was gone.

The government had promised silver and instead delivered depreciating paper.

Once again, the US unilaterally rewrote the terms of its obligations when the cost of keeping them became too high.

This represented a unilateral change in the terms of payment—akin to the earlier episodes in 1862 with Greenbacks and in 1933 with the abrogation of gold clauses.

It was the US government’s fourth default.

Default #5: The 1971 Nixon Shock and the End of Gold Convertibility
After World War 2, the US held by far the largest gold reserves in the world. Coupled with its victory in the war, this allowed Washington to rebuild the global monetary system around the dollar.

The new framework, designed at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, tied nearly every major currency to the US dollar at fixed exchange rates. In turn, the dollar was tied to gold at $35 an ounce. The US government assured the world that the dollar was “as good as gold,” and this pledge underpinned the global financial order for decades.

But that promise was unsustainable.

Massive spending on the Vietnam War and Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs forced the US government to print more dollars than it could back with gold at the official rate.

By the late 1960s, the number of dollars circulating abroad had vastly outstripped US gold reserves at the $35 promised price.

Foreign governments, including close allies like France and the United Kingdom, began redeeming their dollars for gold, accelerating the drain.

Between the end of World War 2 and 1971, US gold reserves fell by more than half, plunging from 574 million troy ounces to around 261 million.

The US government faced a stark choice: honor its commitments and risk losing the gold that underpinned its financial and geopolitical power, or default on its promise to redeem the dollar for gold.

On a Sunday evening, August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon interrupted scheduled television programming with an announcement that stunned the world.

Nixon said he was temporarily suspending the dollar’s convertibility into gold.

The most obvious lie was Nixon’s claim that the suspension would only be “temporary.” It’s still in place today.

Another egregious lie was that his move was necessary to protect Americans from international speculators. Instead, money printing to finance out-of-control government spending was the real problem.

Lastly, Nixon said removing the gold link would stabilize the dollar. However, even by the government’s own rigged inflation statistics, which understate reality, the US dollar has lost over 87% of its purchasing power since 1971.

The truth is that Nixon defaulted on the US government’s promise to redeem the dollar for gold at $35 an ounce. By closing the gold window, the US forced foreign central banks to accept settlement in depreciating paper rather than the gold they were entitled to.

It was the US government’s fifth default.

Conclusion
Now you know the truth: America has defaulted before—and it’s gearing up to do it again.

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WHO IS MARK LEIBOVIT?

MARK LEIBOVIT is Chief Market Strategist for LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS a/k/a VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (TM) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.

Mark’s extensive media television profile includes seven years as a consultant ‘Elf’ on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week” television program, and over thirty years as a Market Monitor guest for PBS “The Nightly Business Report”. He also has appeared on Fox Business News, CNBC, BNN (Canada), and Bloomberg, and has been interviewed in Barrons, Business Week, Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks.

In the January 2, 2020 edition of TIMER DIGEST MAGAZINE, Mark Leibovit was ranked the #1 U.S. Stock Market Timer and was previously ranked #1 Intermediate U.S. Market Timer for the ten year period December, 1997 to 2007.

He was a ‘Market Maker’ on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Midwest Options Exchange and then went on to work in the Research department of two Chicago based brokerage firms. Mr. Leibovit now publishes a series of newsletters at www.LeibovitVRNewsletters.com. He became a member of the Market Technicians Association in 1982.

Mr. Leibovit’s specialty is Volume Analysis and his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. He has historical experience recognizing, bull and bear markets and signaling alerts prior to market crashes. His indicator is currently available on the Metastock platform.

His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis, The Trader’s Book of Volume published by McGraw-Hill is a definitive guide to volume trading. It is now also published in Chinese. Mark has appeared in speaking engagements and seminars in the U.S. and Canada.

Yes, that’s a cartoon of me. Louis Rukeyser had us dressed up in ‘elf’ costumes on the screen broadcast each week. I’ve dated myself. That occurred for me between 1988-1996. Lou didn’t like any bearish comments, so myself and other elves got dumped in 1996.

I APPEARED AS A GUEST PANELIST WITH LOUIS RUKEYSER ONE MONTH BEFORE IN MID-SEPTEMBER 1987!

THE JOE ROGAN INTERVIEW WITH BIG LAZAR – THOUGH SIX YEARS OLD WELL WORTH WATCHING. ABOUT AN HOUR

 

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