https://www.howestreet.com/2026/08/cycles-say-this-is-naturally-a-turbulent-time-mark-leibovit/


U.S. MARKET OUTLOOK

Week of August 17–21, 2026

The market enters Monday in an interesting position: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen for three consecutive weeks and the S&P reached another record Thursday before pulling back Friday. Friday’s decline was modest—about 0.2% for the S&P—but it occurred as investors digested weaker retail sales, higher oil prices and renewed Middle East concerns.

My bias for this week is cautiously bullish early, but increasingly vulnerable to profit-taking as the week progresses. After three consecutive winning weeks and record highs, I would not be surprised to see a short-term trading peak or reversal during August 17–21, particularly if interest rates or oil move sharply higher.

The setup

The economic story changed noticeably last week. July employment was weak, inflation moderated, and July retail sales unexpectedly declined—the first monthly decline in nine months. That combination has sharply reduced expectations for another Fed rate increase. Market pricing recently put the probability of a September 25-basis-point hike around only 30%.

That’s initially bullish for stocks because it removes some of the interest-rate pressure that had been hanging over growth stocks. But there’s another interpretation: the economy may be slowing faster than investors expected.

That distinction should become increasingly important.

What I am watching this week

Monday, August 17: I expect the market initially to trade off Friday’s weaker economic numbers and geopolitical developments. Iran remains a significant wildcard. The Trump administration is discussing additional economic pressure on Iran, while energy-market tensions have already driven oil higher.

Tuesday, August 18: Housing data and Home Depot (HD) earnings become important tests of the consumer and housing economy.

Wednesday, August 19: The FOMC minutes become one of the week’s biggest potential market movers. Investors will look for evidence of how divided Fed officials are between holding rates steady and tightening further.

Wednesday–Thursday: Retail becomes especially important. Walmart, Target, Lowe’s, TJX and Ross Stores are among the major companies reporting this week. These reports may tell us considerably more about the consumer than the headline economic statistics.

DOW JONES

This is the index I would watch particularly closely for evidence of a reversal.

Your forecasting work has been pointing toward an important August period, and the fundamental backdrop now makes that especially interesting. The Dow has the benefit of declining Fed-tightening expectations, but economically sensitive components could react poorly if retailers and housing companies start talking about weakening demand.

My expectation: early-week strength is possible, but I would be increasingly reluctant to chase the Dow at new highs.

A sharp rally Monday or Tuesday followed by declining upside volume would be a warning signal.

S&P 500

The S&P is technically strong until proven otherwise. Thursday produced a record closing high, and Friday’s small decline did little technical damage.

The problem is positioning.

Three consecutive positive weeks + record highs + weakening economic data creates a situation where good Fed news may already be discounted.

Therefore:

Bullish scenario: New highs accompanied by expanding volume and broader participation.

Warning scenario: New high followed by an intraday reversal and expanding downside volume.

Bearish confirmation: Several consecutive sessions of declining prices accompanied by rising volume—the type of action that would become particularly important under your Volume Reversal methodology.

NASDAQ / AI

Technology remains the market’s leadership group. AI-related earnings helped lift the S&P and Nasdaq last week.

But I think this is becoming a stock-picker’s market rather than a chase-everything AI market.

There is also an important date immediately beyond this week’s window: Nvidia’s next earnings report is scheduled for Wednesday, August 26 after the close. That means positioning for NVDA earnings may begin influencing technology shares this week.

I would expect volatility in semiconductors to increase.

GOLD

I remain constructive on gold.

Gold has benefited from declining expectations for another Fed hike, a softer dollar backdrop and geopolitical risk. Market sentiment among gold analysts has become notably bullish following last week’s advance.

The fundamental combination is favorable:

Fed tightening expectations ↓
Dollar pressure ↓
Geopolitical risk ↑
Oil/inflation uncertainty ↑
Gold demand ↑

I would expect pullbacks to attract buyers rather than signal the end of the move, unless the Fed minutes unexpectedly revive expectations for another hike.

OIL — IMPORTANT WILDCARD

This may actually be the most dangerous variable for equities this week.

Oil rose more than $1 Friday as markets monitored the Middle East situation, and the political confrontation with Iran remains unresolved.

A sudden oil spike would create the unpleasant combination of:

slowing growth + renewed inflation pressure.

That could hit consumer stocks, airlines and transportation while benefiting energy producers.

BITCOIN / CRYPTO

Crypto remains more fragile than gold in my view.

Bitcoin has recently been trading around the low-$60,000 area and has not responded particularly well even to additional Chinese liquidity.

That relative weakness deserves attention.

I’d be careful about interpreting every crypto bounce as the beginning of another major leg upward. The cancellation of an SEC meeting concerning crypto rules last week also adds another layer of regulatory uncertainty.

My roadmap for August 17–21

Market Weekly Bias
Dow 🟡 Bullish early / reversal risk
S&P 500 🟡–🟢 Positive but extended
Nasdaq 100 🟡–🟢 Leadership intact, increasingly volatile
Semiconductors 🟡 Watch for NVDA positioning
Gold 🟢 Bullish
Silver 🟢 Bullish but higher volatility
Oil 🟢 Geopolitical upside risk
U.S. Dollar 🟡–🔴 Vulnerable
Treasuries 🟢 Supported by softer economy
Bitcoin/Crypto 🟡 Cautious

Bottom line

I would not chase the stock market this week.

The primary trend remains bullish and record highs are inherently bullish, but August 17–21 looks more like a potential transition week than the beginning of a fresh low-risk advance.

The biggest issue is the change in the economic narrative. Until recently, investors were afraid that economic strength would force the Fed to tighten. Now employment, inflation and retail spending have all softened enough that the question may become:

Is the Fed becoming less hawkish because inflation is under control—or because the economy is deteriorating?

If Wall Street starts choosing the second interpretation, the same weak data that helped stocks last week could become the catalyst for a correction.

One important correction to some calendars circulating online: Jackson Hole is not this week. The Kansas City Fed confirms the 2026 symposium runs August 27–29, making it a major catalyst for the following week.

CURRENT HYPOTHETICAL PORTFOLIO

AUGUST 17, 2026  UPDATE BELOW  BUT USE THE LINK FOR A MORE CURRENT UPDATE

https://coinmarketcap.com/

https://tinyurl.com/bdfcfwyw

AUTUMNAL EQUINOX AHEAD

VIDEO:

https://tinyurl.com/3ysn99z8


IS RISK OF A POLAR SHIFT AND DEVASTATING CONSEQUNCES FOR THE EARTH REAL IN OUR LIFETIME?

Charles Hapgood is central to the modern “pole shift” discussion, but what Hapgood proposed is importantly different from a magnetic-pole reversal.

Hapgood’s theory

Charles H. Hapgood developed what became known as the Earth Crustal Displacement hypothesis. His major books were Earth’s Shifting Crust (1958) and the substantially revised The Path of the Pole (1970). The original book even carried a foreword by Albert Einstein.

Hapgood proposed that Earth’s relatively rigid outer shell could periodically shift its geographical position relative to the rotational poles. Think of the crust/lithosphere moving around the deeper Earth somewhat like a loose outer skin moving around an orange.

That is radically different from a magnetic reversal:

Phenomenon What moves
Magnetic reversal Earth’s magnetic field changes polarity
True polar wander Solid Earth slowly reorients relative to its rotation axis
Plate tectonics Individual tectonic plates move
Hapgood displacement Much of Earth’s outer shell shifts geographically

Interestingly, true polar wander is a legitimate geophysical phenomenon. Changes in Earth’s mass distribution can cause the solid Earth to reorient relative to its rotation axis. The controversial part of Hapgood’s proposal is the magnitude and rapidity of the displacement he envisioned—not the general concept that geographical pole positions can change.

The Einstein connection is real — but frequently overstated

This is one of the most fascinating aspects of the story.

Einstein really did correspond with Hapgood and wrote the foreword to Earth’s Shifting Crust. He considered Hapgood’s idea sufficiently interesting to warrant investigation. The Smithsonian’s catalog confirms the Einstein foreword.

But saying “Einstein proved or endorsed Hapgood’s theory” goes too far.

Einstein was intrigued by the hypothesis but questioned its proposed mechanism. Hapgood originally suggested that accumulating polar ice could create sufficient rotational imbalance to move the crust. Hapgood subsequently acknowledged that this particular mechanism was inadequate and changed his explanation in The Path of the Pole.

That distinction matters.

What Hapgood thought happened previously

Hapgood attempted to reconstruct earlier positions of the North Pole, including locations around Hudson Bay, Greenland/Atlantic regions and the Yukon/Alaska region.

He connected these proposed displacements with otherwise puzzling climatic changes—for example, areas presently within the Arctic having experienced much warmer climates and regions presently temperate having once been glaciated.

He also became interested in ancient maps. In Maps of the Ancient Sea Kings, Hapgood argued that maps such as the Piri Reis map incorporated information inherited from a much older civilization and possibly depicted portions of Antarctica before extensive ice coverage.

That latter interpretation is not accepted by modern Antarctic geology; evidence indicates Antarctica’s major ice sheets substantially predate the civilization Hapgood envisioned.

Would a Hapgood-type displacement cause volcanoes and earthquakes?

If a rapid crustal displacement of Hapgood’s proposed magnitude actually occurred, enormous geological stresses would logically be expected. You could imagine major fault movement, earthquakes, volcanism, landslides and ocean displacement.

But this is where we have to separate a theoretical consequence from evidence.

Today’s volcanic eruptions do not demonstrate that such a displacement is beginning. Volcanoes such as Etna, Kīlauea, Semeru, Fuego and those of Kamchatka lie in well-understood tectonic environments and erupt repeatedly without requiring a global crustal-shift mechanism.

Nor has modern geophysics identified evidence that the entire lithosphere is presently accelerating toward a Hapgood-style sudden displacement.

But there is a fascinating scientific middle ground

This is where Hapgood’s work becomes more interesting than simply labeling it “right” or “wrong.”

Modern science recognizes:

plate tectonics → real

continental drift → real

magnetic pole reversals → real

geomagnetic excursions → real

true polar wander → real

large changes in Earth’s past climate → unquestionably real

What isn’t established is Hapgood’s proposed rapid, catastrophic whole-crust displacement.

And Hapgood was writing during an extraordinary period in geology. His 1958 book appeared just before plate tectonics revolutionized Earth science during the 1960s. Some observations he was trying to explain eventually received very different explanations through plate tectonics.

One point especially relevant to your earlier question

I would not use the present volcanic eruptions as evidence that Hapgood’s shift is approaching.

But if we wanted to seriously test the idea rather than dismiss it, I would monitor a combination of independent measurements:

magnetic-field strength + magnetic-pole migration + length-of-day changes + Earth’s rotational wobble + GPS measurements of plate motion + global earthquake energy + volcanic activity + South Atlantic Anomaly changes.

If several of those began exhibiting unprecedented correlated acceleration, that would be considerably more interesting than simply counting active volcanoes.

And there’s another historical event worth examining in this context: the Laschamps geomagnetic excursion about 41,000–42,000 years ago. Comparing what actually happened geologically and climatically during Laschamps with Hapgood’s proposed previous pole locations would be a much stronger way of testing the idea.


THE COMMENTATOR HAS COMEDIC SIDEKICK NAMED ‘HECKLEFISH’ IN AN OBVIOUS ATTEMPT TO DOWNPLAY THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE MATTER AND PROBABLY TO KEEP THE ‘MEN IN BLACK’ AT BAY

America’s Secret Space Program and the Alien Connection: Solar Warden

https://tinyurl.com/44xw2yj3

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF THE VIDEO:

1. Gary McKinnon and the government computers

The story begins with British computer expert Gary McKinnon, who believed the U.S. government was concealing evidence concerning UFOs. Beginning around 2000, McKinnon searched poorly secured U.S. government computer systems. He eventually gained access to machines associated with the U.S. Navy, U.S. Space Command and NASA.

The important point is that McKinnon wasn’t initially claiming that he discovered “Solar Warden.” That connection was made later.

2. The “Non-Terrestrial Officers” document

McKinnon’s most intriguing claim concerns a spreadsheet he says he encountered on a U.S. Navy system.

The file was reportedly titled “Non-Terrestrial Officers.”

According to McKinnon, it contained names of personnel he could not match to conventional Navy assignments. The episode raises two possible interpretations: humans stationed somewhere other than Earth, or potentially non-human personnel operating here.

The existence and meaning of this alleged document have never been independently verified.

3. The NASA photograph

The episode then connects McKinnon with claims made by Donna Hare, who said she worked as a contractor associated with NASA.

Hare claimed that a colleague once showed her a satellite photograph containing a strange cigar-shaped object. She said UFOs appearing in NASA photographs were removed before the pictures were released publicly.

McKinnon says this story prompted him to search NASA computers, particularly systems associated with Building 8.

He eventually found directories allegedly labeled things such as “raw,” “filtered,” “processed” and “unprocessed.”

McKinnon says he opened a very large image from the unprocessed material. Because of his slow remote connection, the picture appeared gradually.

He described seeing Earth and clouds—and then a large, smooth, silver cylindrical object that he interpreted as a spacecraft.

There was a major problem:

He did not save the picture.

McKinnon says someone at the NASA computer apparently realized there was an unauthorized connection and disconnected him before he could capture it.

4. The secret-space-program theory

The episode then expands from McKinnon’s claims into the much larger theory that the United States operates a secret space program separate from NASA.

The Why Files notes that secret military space programs themselves aren’t far-fetched. The U.S. Air Force really did operate classified space initiatives during the Cold War, including the Manned Orbiting Laboratory (MOL) program.

But the Solar Warden story goes dramatically further.

5. What Solar Warden is alleged to be

According to the story, Solar Warden is an enormous multinational space-defense organization that supposedly grew out of classified military programs and eventually the Reagan-era Strategic Defense Initiative.

The alleged mission is extraordinary:

Patrol the solar system and prevent unauthorized extraterrestrial spacecraft from entering Earth’s territory.

The story claims Earth governments have agreements with extraterrestrial civilizations limiting their activities here.

Solar Warden supposedly exists partly to enforce those agreements.

6. The alleged fleet

One of the early versions of the Solar Warden story claimed that around 2005 the fleet consisted of approximately:

8 enormous carrier-type spacecraft and 43 smaller “protector” spacecraft or spaceplanes.

The carriers are sometimes described as being analogous to naval aircraft carriers.

The story further claims that humans have established facilities on the Moon and Mars, including a multinational Mars installation supposedly dating to the 1960s.

Even more extraordinary versions claim that humans have visited essentially the entire solar system.

The technology is supposedly derived partly from reverse-engineered extraterrestrial spacecraft and partly from direct extraterrestrial assistance.

7. Ronald Reagan and “Star Wars”

The Why Files then examines President Ronald Reagan.

Reagan publicly displayed a fascination with the idea that an extraterrestrial threat might unite humanity.

The episode asks whether Reagan knew something.

It connects this speculation to the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI)—popularly called “Star Wars”—and to proposals for enormous aerospace vehicles capable of transporting large payloads into orbit.

One proposed craft discussed is Star-Raker, an enormous spaceplane concept considerably larger than the Space Shuttle.

The implication is interesting:

Even without aliens, the United States clearly investigated technology capable of supporting a much larger military presence in space.

That does not, however, establish Solar Warden.

8. Where the name “Solar Warden” appears

This is one of the most important details in the entire episode.

The Why Files says the first identifiable public reference to a secret space program specifically called Solar Warden appeared around 2006 on an internet forum.

An anonymous poster claimed that the fleet already existed.

That’s significant because McKinnon’s computer intrusions occurred years earlier.

9. Darren Perks brings the story mainstream

In 2012, journalist Darren Perks published an article about Solar Warden that helped popularize the story and connect it directly to McKinnon.

Perks claimed the program began around 1980 and involved huge spacecraft and smaller scout ships.

He also claimed that during an earlier Freedom of Information inquiry he received an unexpected response indicating that something called Solar Warden had been a NASA program and had been terminated.

The Why Files considers this intriguing—but points out that neither NASA nor the Defense Department has publicly confirmed the extraordinary interpretation of the program.

10. Strange objects photographed in space

The program then discusses British amateur astronomer John Lenard Walson, who photographed unusual objects in the night sky using telescope imaging techniques.

Walson claimed some objects assumed to be stars were actually enormous artificial structures or spacecraft.

Some images appear to show complicated geometric objects.

Solar Warden proponents interpreted them as possible orbital platforms or spacecraft.

But again, identifying unusual telescope imagery as a secret interplanetary fleet requires a very large evidentiary leap.

11. The alleged whistleblowers

The Solar Warden story eventually attracted several people claiming personal knowledge of secret space programs.

The episode discusses claims from people including:

Laura Eisenhower, great-granddaughter of President Dwight Eisenhower;

Andrew Basiago, who has claimed participation in secret programs involving Mars and teleportation;

and Corey Goode, who became one of the best-known modern proponents of secret-space-program stories.

The claims become increasingly extraordinary—including Mars operations, extraterrestrial federations, reptilian species and “Blue Avians.”

This is where The Why Files becomes substantially more skeptical.

12. The Why Files changes direction

Near the end, AJ Gentile asks the question the show usually reserves for its final section:

Is Solar Warden actually true?

His answer is essentially:

Probably not—at least not in the form presented by the mythology.

And there’s an important distinction.

13. McKinnon never claimed he discovered Solar Warden

This may be the most important takeaway.

Gary McKinnon himself says he doesn’t know anything about Solar Warden.

He did not claim to have seen the words “Solar Warden” on the government computers he accessed.

The connection between McKinnon and Solar Warden appears to have been made years afterward, particularly through the 2012 Darren Perks article and subsequent UFO literature.

So there are really two different stories that became merged:

Story A: McKinnon says he found unusual Navy personnel records and saw an unexplained spacecraft image on a NASA computer.

Story B: The U.S. supposedly operates an enormous interplanetary military fleet called Solar Warden.

Evidence for Story A rests principally on McKinnon’s testimony.

Evidence for Story B is much weaker.

14. AJ’s interesting conclusion about McKinnon

The Why Files does not simply dismiss McKinnon.

AJ says that even if McKinnon genuinely saw a photograph of a UFO—and AJ indicates that he personally finds that possibility believable—it does not logically follow that there must therefore be eight giant spacecraft, dozens of fighters, Moon/Mars bases and an interplanetary military organization.

That’s the distinction I think is most valuable in this episode.

15. Where this intersects with your ACIO research

There is a striking thematic overlap with the material we’ve been examining concerning ACIO, the Labyrinth Group, alleged extraterrestrial technology transfer and reverse engineering.

Both narratives contain the same general architecture:

Compartmentalized programs → technology unavailable publicly → extraterrestrial contact/technology → reverse engineering → programs hidden even from ordinary government oversight.

But the sources are different, and I would not treat one story as confirmation of the other without independent evidence.

The strongest historically grounded element in the Solar Warden story is not actually Solar Warden. It’s the fact that the United States has operated highly classified military aerospace and space programs, sometimes while publicly revealing very little about them.

The weakest portion is the enormous interplanetary fleet, alien treaties, Mars warfare and some of the later “whistleblower” narratives.

And sitting intriguingly between those extremes is Gary McKinnon—because the extraordinary prosecution/extradition battle surrounding his unauthorized access was very real, while what he says he saw remains largely impossible to independently verify.



WATCH THIS VIDEO FROM DR. STEPHEN GREER . IN MY VIEW, IF TRUE, THE BIGGEST AND GREATEST STORY OF OUR TIME SURROUNDING ENSLAVEMENT OF HUMANITY BY WITHOLDING ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY AND ALL COUNTRIES ARE APPARENTLY INVOLVED.

https://tinyurl.com/ydk2bfeu


NEW PARADIGM INSTITUTE

https://tinyurl.com/4399tp84

DR PHIL SPEAKS OUT!

https://tinyurl.com/ms9dmbzx

THE PHOENIX LIGHTS

https://tinyurl.com/up9fm8f8

https://tinyurl.com/bdh3696h

THE MAJESTIC 12

https://tinyurl.com/mpvekez7


MY CURRENT BOOK LIST:

MY NEXT BOOK BY 2027:

THE CASE FOR ABOLISHING THE FED

G EDWARD GRIFFIN

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqhxzN0PMeg

METASTOCK ADD-ON INDICATOR AVAILABLE AT METASTOCK.COM

https://www.metastock.com/products/thirdparty/?3pc-add-vris


WHO IS MARK LEIBOVIT?

One interesting piece of Wall Street Week history is that my profile places me among a relatively small group of market technicians who achieved long-term national visibility through the show,Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser.

Seven years as a Wall Street Week Elf
More than thirty years as a Market Monitor guest on PBS’s Nightly Business Report
Two-time Timer Digest #1 market-timing recognition
Creator of the trademarked Volume Reversal Indicator.

MARK LEIBOVIT is Chief Market Strategist for LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS a/k/a VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (TM) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.

Mark’s extensive media television profile includes seven years as a consultant ‘Elf’ on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week” television program, and over thirty years as a Market Monitor guest for PBS “The Nightly Business Report”. He also has appeared on Fox Business News, CNBC, BNN (Canada), and Bloomberg, and has been interviewed in Barrons, Business Week, Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks.

In the January 2, 2020 edition of TIMER DIGEST MAGAZINE, Mark Leibovit was ranked the #1 U.S. Stock Market Timer and was previously ranked #1 Intermediate U.S. Market Timer for the ten year period December, 1997 to 2007.

He was a ‘Market Maker’ on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Midwest Options Exchange and then went on to work in the Research department of two Chicago based brokerage firms. Mr. Leibovit now publishes a series of newsletters at www.LeibovitVRNewsletters.com. He became a member of the Market Technicians Association in 1982.

Mr. Leibovit’s specialty is Volume Analysis and his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. He has historical experience recognizing, bull and bear markets and signaling alerts prior to market crashes. His indicator is currently available on the Metastock platform.

His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis, The Trader’s Book of Volume published by McGraw-Hill is a definitive guide to volume trading. It is now also published in Chinese. Mark has appeared in speaking engagements and seminars in the U.S. and Canada.

Yes, that’s a cartoon of me. Louis Rukeyser had us dressed up in ‘elf’ costumes on the screen broadcast each week. I’ve dated myself. That occurred for me between 1988-1996. Lou didn’t like any bearish comments, so myself and other elves got dumped in 1996.

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