https://tinyurl.com/38ku54a5

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/02/signals-stock-markets-should-stay-positive-mark-leibovit/

The Establishment’s Last Stand Against Trump’s Tariffs
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is once again warning that Donald Trump’s tariff proposals would spell economic disaster. But their latest analysis, rather than proving their case, actually demonstrates how minimal the effects on the U.S. economy would be. If anything, their own numbers show that tariffs disproportionately harm China while having only a rounding-error effect on U.S. GDP and inflation.

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its nonfarm payrolls count for January, it is projected to show growth of 169,000, down from 256,000 in December, but nearly in line with the three-month average.  Also, annual benchmark revisions are projected to show a record increase of 3.5 million in the population and 2.3 million in household employment.
Recent indicators show that while hiring has leveled off, layoffs aren’t increasing and workers aren’t quitting, though job openings are on the decline.

Stocks showed a lack of […]

Conclusion: how to make sense of this sudden collapse in the labor market? Simple: as we mused back in December, all Trump needs to do to get the Fed to restart cutting rates is to tell the BLS to show a sudden collapse in the labor market. Today was the preview. The main show comes on Friday at 8:30am.

Finally, no matter what the “data” shows, let’s not forget that it is all just estimated, and it is safe to say that the real number of job openings remains still far lower since half of it – or some 70% to be specific – is guesswork. As the BLS itself admits, while the response rate to most of its various labor (and other) surveys has collapsed in recent years, nothing is as bad as the JOLTS report where the actual response rate remains near a record low 33%

Stocks came under pressure early in the session on Wednesday but showed a significant rebound over the course of the trading day. […]