Updated Monday night, August 31, 2026

The Grand Canyon and northern Arizona flash-flood situation moves to the top of tonight’s watch, followed by the Nepal–Tibet catastrophe, active tropical systems in the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, Indonesian fires and volcanic activity, and continuing global conflict emergencies.

🔴 1. GRAND CANYON / NORTHERN ARIZONA — FLASH-FLOOD DISASTER

Severe monsoon flooding has struck the Grand Canyon, making this the most important situation to watch locally in Arizona.

At least two people have been reported killed, another person missing, and roughly 80 people rescued. Floodwaters have damaged infrastructure, including portions of the canyon’s water system.

The danger is not necessarily over. Additional monsoon thunderstorms can produce rapid flash flooding in slot canyons, washes and normally dry drainage areas, sometimes far downstream from where the heaviest rain actually falls.

For Flagstaff and northern Arizona, the principal issues to monitor are heavy thunderstorms, burn-scar flooding, rapidly rising washes, lightning, hail and dangerous driving conditions.

WATCH LEVEL: 🔴 HIGH

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🔴 2. NEPAL–TIBET — CATASTROPHIC FLOODING

A major Himalayan glacial collapse/avalanche triggered extreme flash flooding along the Nepal–Tibet/China border, destroying bridges, roads, villages and hydropower infrastructure.

Initial authoritative reporting confirmed at least 160 deaths with hundreds missing, while subsequent reports indicate the casualty and missing-person figures have continued to rise as rescuers reach isolated areas. The latest numbers should therefore be regarded as provisional.

The continuing danger includes landslides, additional glacier-related flooding and isolation of mountain communities.

WATCH LEVEL: 🔴 VERY HIGH

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🌀 3. EASTERN PACIFIC — ACTIVE HURRICANE CLUSTER

The eastern Pacific is unusually active.

Hurricane Karina has become a powerful hurricane over open water, while Lowell has also strengthened. Another disturbance closer to Mexico has a high probability of developing.

That third system deserves particular attention for the Southwest. Some computer modeling has indicated the possibility of an unusual northward movement toward Baja and Southern California around Labor Day weekend.

That does not mean a hurricane is forecast to hit California. At this stage, the more realistic concern for the Southwest would be tropical moisture feeding northward and increasing the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding in Southern California and Arizona.

WATCH LEVEL: 🟠 HIGH AND DEVELOPING

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🌀 4. TEXAS / LOUISIANA — GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM

A tropical depression formed over the northern Gulf and is moving toward the upper Texas/southwestern Louisiana coastline.

Tropical-storm warnings have been issued, and the system could strengthen into Tropical Storm Edouard before reaching the coast.

The principal danger is likely to be torrential rainfall and flash flooding, particularly around southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.

WATCH LEVEL: 🟠 HIGH

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🌋 5. GLOBAL VOLCANO WATCH

Mount Etna — Sicily

Etna remains active and continues to warrant monitoring. Smithsonian’s latest reporting documents continued activity during August.

There is presently no evidence of an imminent catastrophic eruption.

STATUS: 🟡 WATCH

Mount Pelée — Martinique

Mount Pelée remains particularly important because we have been watching Pelée and Etna together.

The Martinique Volcano Observatory’s August 28 bulletin maintains YELLOW alert status for Pelée. Scientists continue monitoring seismic, geochemical and ground-deformation indicators.

There is currently no evidence that a major eruption is imminent.

STATUS: 🟡 YELLOW

Sinabung — Indonesia

This is tonight’s more significant volcanic development.

Mount Sinabung erupted August 31, generating an ash column approximately 3.5 kilometers high. Indonesian authorities increased the alert level and established a restricted area around the volcano. No immediate casualties were reported.

STATUS: 🟠 ELEVATED

Kīlauea — Hawaii

Kīlauea remains under active USGS monitoring, with daily updates continuing as of August 31.

STATUS: 🟡 ACTIVE MONITORING

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🌎 6. GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE WATCH

Global seismic activity remains active, although there is no indication tonight of a new catastrophic M7+ earthquake in the latest reports reviewed.

Recent notable earthquakes include an M5.5 near Indonesia, an M5.8 in the Kermadec Islands/New Zealand region, an M4.7 in Peru, and an M4.4 offshore Northern California near Ferndale.

The Indonesian earthquake is noteworthy given simultaneous volcanic activity in the region, but geographic proximity alone does not establish that the earthquake caused or triggered an eruption.

WATCH LEVEL: 🟡 MODERATE

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🔥 7. INDONESIA — MAJOR WILDFIRE / HAZE THREAT

Indonesia is experiencing significant wildfire activity.

More than 9,000 hotspots were detected during August, with dry conditions contributing to fires across Borneo and peatland areas. Firefighting aircraft and cloud-seeding operations have been deployed.

Smoke is already affecting aviation in some areas.

Continued burning could develop into a broader Southeast Asian haze emergency.

WATCH LEVEL: 🟠 HIGH

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💥 8. INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS / EXPLOSIONS

Several significant man-made disasters are also being monitored.

In Uttar Pradesh, India, an explosion at a firecracker manufacturing facility killed multiple people, injured others and damaged nearby homes.

In Oklahoma, an explosion at a marijuana-extraction facility killed two workers. Prosecutors subsequently filed murder charges alleging serious safety violations involving hazardous materials.

WATCH LEVEL: 🟡 REGIONAL

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⚔️ 9. WAR / HUMANITARIAN DISASTER WATCH

The world’s largest continuing man-made humanitarian emergencies include:

Sudan • Ukraine • Gaza/Middle East • Yemen • eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

Sudan remains particularly serious because warfare, famine/hunger, disease and mass displacement are occurring simultaneously.

Worldwide humanitarian needs remain extraordinarily high, with hundreds of millions of people affected by conflict, displacement, hunger or disaster.

WATCH LEVEL: 🔴 EXTREME IN ACTIVE WAR ZONES

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☀️ 10. SPACE-WEATHER WATCH

NOAA continues monitoring solar flares, coronal mass ejections and geomagnetic activity through its three-day and longer-range forecasts.

I see no evidence tonight of an extreme Carrington-class geomagnetic event or comparable immediate global space-weather emergency.

STATUS: 🟢/🟡 NORMAL WATCH

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GLOBAL RISK BOARD — SEPTEMBER 1–7

What I would watch most closely

For Arizona, the Grand Canyon flooding and northern Arizona monsoon pattern are No. 1, particularly because another tropical system developing off Mexico could eventually feed additional moisture into the Southwest.

Globally, Nepal/Tibet remains the most severe developing natural disaster in this report. The eastern Pacific tropical systems rank next because of their potential evolution during the first week of September.

And on the special Etna–Pelée watch, neither volcano currently shows evidence of an imminent catastrophic eruption. Pelée remains at Yellow while Etna remains active. Therefore, the present scientific observations do not match the simultaneous major-eruption scenario associated with the Edgar Cayce prediction we’ve been tracking.

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