https://tinyurl.com/38ku54a5

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/02/signals-stock-markets-should-stay-positive-mark-leibovit/

U.S. Pull Back Sharply Amid Renewed Inflation, Tariff Concerns

Stocks moved sharply lower during trading on Friday, giving back ground after trending higher over the past few sessions. The major averages turned negative within the first hour of trading and saw further downside as the day progressed.

The major averages climbed off their worst levels going into the close but remained firmly negative. The Nasdaq dove 268.59 points or 1.3 percent to 19,523.40, the Dow tumbled 444.23 points or 1.0 percent to 44,303.40 and the S&P 500 slumped 57.58 points or 1.0 percent to 6,025.99.

With the significant pullback on the day, the major averages also closed lower for the week. The S&P 500 dipped by 0.2 percent, while the Dow and the Nasdaq both fell by 0.5 percent.

The weakness that emerged early in the session came after the University of Michigan released a report showing consumer sentiment has unexpectedly deteriorated in February amid a surge by year-ahead inflation expectations.

The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index slumped to 67.8 in February after rising to 71.1 in January. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 72.0.

With the unexpected decrease, the consumer sentiment index dropped to its lowest level since hitting 66.4 in July 2024.

The deterioration by consumer sentiment came as year-ahead inflation expectations spiked to 4.3 percent in February from 3.3 percent in January, reaching the highest level since November 2023.

“Many consumers appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year,” said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. “This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise (one percentage point or more) in year-ahead inflation expectations.”

Stocks saw further downside after President Donald Trump said he plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries next week, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on imports equal to the rates imposed on American exports.

Traders were also reacting to mixed U.S. jobs data, with a closely watched Labor Department report showing weaker than expected job growth in January but an unexpected decrease by the unemployment rate.

The report said non-farm payroll employment rose by 143,000 jobs in January compared to economist estimates for an increase of about 170,000 jobs.

Meanwhile, employment in December and November surged by upwardly revised 307,000 jobs and 261,000 jobs, respectively, reflecting a net upward revision of 100,000 jobs.

The Labor Department also said the unemployment rate dipped to 4.0 percent in January from 4.1 percent in December. The unemployment rate was expected to remain unchanged.

“An unemployment rate at 4% is considered very low, giving the Fed reason to keep fed funds unchanged in the near term,” said Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist for LPL Financial.

Sector News

Housing stocks saw substantial weakness amid a notable increase by treasury yields, dragging the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index down by 2.7 percent.

Significant weakness was also visible among retail stocks, as reflected by the 2.4 percent slump by the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index.

A steep drop by Amazon (AMZN) weighed on the sector, with the online retail giant tumbling by 4.1 percent after reporting better than expected fourth quarter results but providing disappointing sales guidance for the current quarter.

Biotechnology, semiconductor and software stocks also saw considerable weakness, while airline stocks were among the few groups to buck the downtrend.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region turned in a mixed performance during trading on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index slid by 0.7 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index jumped by 1.0 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets all moved lower on the day. The German DAX Index fell by 0.5 percent, the French CAC 40 Index declined by 0.4 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index dipped by 0.3 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries showed a notable move to the downside, extending the modest pullback seen on Thursday. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 4.7 basis points to 4.487 percent.

Looking Ahead

Reports on consumer and producer price inflation are likely to be in focus next week along with congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

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A NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN

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ULTIMATE PROOF THE DEMOCRATS ARE THE PARTY OF VIOLENCE

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CHNI: Democrats vote against ban on transgender athletes

Editor: I will say it again.  Democrats suffer from mental illness!

https://katherineclark.house.gov/2025/1/chni-democrats-vote-against-ban-on-transgender-athletes

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THE PRODUCERS WILL SWALLOW THE TARIFFS TARIFFS ARE NOT GOING TO PRODUCE INFLATION

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Yes, that’s a cartoon of me. Louis Rukeyser had us dressed up in ‘elf’ costumes on the screen broadcast each week. I’ve dated myself. That occurred for me between 1988-1996. Lou didn’t like any bearish comments, so myself and other elves got dumped in 1996.

WHO IS MARK LEIBOVIT? 

MARK LEIBOVIT is Chief Market Strategist for LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS a/k/a VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (TM) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.

Mark’s extensive media television profile includes seven years as a consultant ‘Elf’ on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week” television program, and over thirty years as a Market Monitor guest for PBS “The Nightly Business Report”. He also has appeared on Fox Business News, CNBC, BNN (Canada), and Bloomberg, and has been interviewed in Barrons, Business Week, Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks.

In the January 2, 2020 edition of TIMER DIGEST MAGAZINE, Mark Leibovit was ranked the #1 U.S. Stock Market Timer and was previously ranked #1 Intermediate U.S. Market Timer for the ten year period December, 1997 to 2007.

He was a ‘Market Maker’ on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Midwest Options Exchange and then went on to work in the Research department of two Chicago based brokerage firms. Mr. Leibovit now publishes a series of newsletters at www.LeibovitVRNewsletters.com. He became a member of the Market Technicians Association in 1982.

Mr. Leibovit’s specialty is Volume Analysis and his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. He has historical experience recognizing, bull and bear markets and signaling alerts prior to market crashes. His indicator is currently available on the Metastock platform.

His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis, The Trader’s Book of Volume published by McGraw-Hill is a definitive guide to volume trading. It is now also published in Chinese. Mark has appeared in speaking engagements and seminars in the U.S. and Canada.

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COME ON, DAD. IT’S TIME TO EAT

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