https://www.howestreet.com/2024/08/markets-in-a-potentially-dangerous-time-mark-leibovit/
FULL MOON ABOVE – TRADING TOP CONFIRMED
ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO
~ Ayn Rand
Profit Taking Contributes To Significant Pullback On Wall Street
After failing to sustain an early move to the upside, stocks came under considerable selling pressure over the course of the trading session on Thursday. The major averages pulled back well off their early highs and firmly into negative territory.
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 finished the day just off their lows of the session. The Nasdaq tumbled 299.63 points or 1.7 percent to 17,619.35, the S&P 500 slumped 50.21 points or 0.9 percent to 5,570.64 and the Dow fell 177.71 points or 0.4 percent to 40,712.78.
The downturn on Wall Street partly reflected profit taking, with the pullback coming after the S&P 500 closed within striking distance of the record highs set in mid-July.
While traders remain optimistic about the outlook for interest rates following the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, they may feel the likelihood of a rate cut next month has already been priced into the markets.
Traders may also have been reluctant to continue buying stocks ahead of the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which gets underway later in the day.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, with traders looking for the central bank chief’s comments to provide further clarity about the outlook for rates.
Ahead of Powell’s remarks, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicate a 75.5 percent of a quarter point rate cut next month and a 24.5 percent chance of a half point rate cut.
Negative sentiment may also have been generated in reaction to a rebound by treasury yields, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note bouncing off its lowest closing level in well over a year.
In U.S. economic news, the Labor Department released a report showing a modest rebound by initial jobless claims in the week ended August 17th.
The report said initial jobless claims rose to 232,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 228,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 230,000 from the 227,000 originally reported for the previous week.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors released a separate report showing existing home sales snapped a four-month skid in July, with sales rebounding by slightly more than expected.
NAR said existing home sales shot up by 1.3 percent to an annual rate of 3.95 million in July after plunging by 5.1 percent to a revised rate of 3.90 million in June.
Economists had expected existing home sales to jump by 1.0 percent to an annual rate of 3.93 million from the 3.89 million originally reported for the previous month.
Sector News
Semiconductor stocks came under substantial selling pressure over the course of the session, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down by 3.4 percent.
Considerable weakness was also visible among gold stocks, as reflected by the 2.3 percent slump by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. The index pulled back off its best closing level in well over two years amid a steep drop by the price of gold.
Software stocks also showed a significant move to the downside, with the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index falling by 1.8 percent.
Networking, computer hardware and airline also moved notably lower as the day progressed, while some strength remained visible among banking stocks.
Other Markets
In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly higher during trading on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index advanced by 0.7 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped by 1.4 percent.
Most European stocks also moved to the upside on the day. The German DAX Index rose by 0.2 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index inched up by 0.1 percent, although the French CAC 40 Index closed just below the unchanged line.
In the bond market, treasuries pulled back sharply after trending higher over the past few sessions. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, shot up 8.4 basis points to 3.862 percent.
Looking Ahead
Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium are likely to be it the spotlight on Friday, overshadowing a report on new home sales.
WHEN WILL THE ‘PHONY’ EARNINGS SEASONS COME TO AN END? YES, PHONY! MANIPULATED FORECASTS, INSIDE INFORMATION, ETC HAVE BECOME INSTITUTIONALIZED.
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Yes, that’s a cartoon of me. Louis Rukeyser had us dressed up in ‘elf’ costumes on the screen broadcast each week. I’ve dated myself. That occurred for me between 1988-1996. Lou didn’t like any bearish comments, so myself and other elves got dumped in 1996.
WHO am I?
MARK LEIBOVIT is Chief Market Strategist for LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS a/k/a VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (TM) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.
Mark’s extensive media television profile includes seven years as a consultant ‘Elf’ on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week” television program, and over thirty years as a Market Monitor guest for PBS “The Nightly Business Report”. He also has appeared on Fox Business News, CNBC, BNN (Canada), and Bloomberg, and has been interviewed in Barrons, Business Week, Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks.
In the January 2, 2020 edition of TIMER DIGEST MAGAZINE, Mark Leibovit was ranked the #1 U.S. Stock Market Timer and was previously ranked #1 Intermediate U.S. Market Timer for the ten year period December, 1997 to 2007.
He was a ‘Market Maker’ on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Midwest Options Exchange and then went on to work in the Research department of two Chicago based brokerage firms. Mr. Leibovit now publishes a series of newsletters at www.LeibovitVRNewsletters.com. He became a member of the Market Technicians Association in 1982.
Mr. Leibovit’s specialty is Volume Analysis and his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. He has historical experience recognizing, bull and bear markets and signaling alerts prior to market crashes. His indicator is currently available on the Metastock platform.
His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis, The Trader’s Book of Volume published by McGraw-Hill is a definitive guide to volume trading. It is now also published in Chinese. Mark has appeared in speaking engagements and seminars in the U.S. and Canada.
DANGER DANGER WILL ROBINSON
La Niña can impact weather around the world. For example, in 2024, NOAA projected a 60% chance that La Niña would develop between June and August, which could increase the chances of a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season.
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COME ON, DAD. IT’S TIME TO EAT
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