PODCAST RECORDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON JULY 3, 2025 – TITLED: LOWER OIL PRICES GOOD FOR STOCK MARKET

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/07/lower-oil-prices-good-for-stock-market-mark-leibovit/

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GREAT VIDEO ON ON DONALD TRUMP’S EVOLUTION:

https://tinyurl.com/mta7xa4v

Stocks, dollar dip as Trump passes spending bill, trade deal deadline nears

Stocks slipped on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump got his signature tax cut bill over the line and attention turned to his July 9 deadline for countries to secure trade deals with the world’s biggest economy.

The dollar also fell against major currencies, with U.S. markets already shut for the holiday-shortened week, as traders considered the impact of Trump’s sweeping spending bill that is expected to add an estimated $3.4 trillion to the national debt.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), opens new tab fell 0.5%, with banks, mining-related stocks and retailers among the top laggards.

U.S. S&P 500 futures edged down 0.6%, following a 0.8% overnight advance for the cash index to an all-time closing peak. Wall Street was closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.
Trump said Washington would start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they would face on exports to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals before a July 9 deadline when tariffs could rise sharply.

Investors are “now just waiting for July 9”, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, with the market’s lack of optimism for trade deals responsible for some of the equity weakness in export-reliant Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea.

At the same time, investors cheered a surprisingly robust U.S. jobs report on Thursday, sending all three of the main U.S. equity indexes climbing in a shortened session.
“The U.S. economy is holding together better than most people expected, which suggests to me that markets can easily continue to do better (from here),” Sycamore said.
Following Thursday’s close, the House narrowly approved Trump’s signature, 869-page bill, which averts the near-term prospect of a U.S. government default but adds trillions to the national debt to fuel spending on border security and the military.

Trump said he expected “a couple” more trade agreements, after announcing a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday to add to framework agreements with China and Britain as the only successes so far.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a deal with India was close. However, progress on agreements with Japan and South Korea, once touted by the White House as likely to be among the earliest to be announced, appears to have broken down.

US job growth was unexpectedly solid in June, leading traders to abandon bets that the Fed will cut interest rates before September.

The U.S. dollar index had its worst first half since 1973 as Trump’s chaotic roll-out of sweeping tariffs heightened concerns about the U.S. economy and the safety of Treasuries, but had rallied 0.4% on Thursday before retracing some of those gains on Friday.

The euro added 0.2% to $1.1778, while sterling held steady at $1.3662 as British assets steadied following investor fright over the last two days at a tearful appearance by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves in parliament on Wednesday.

The U.S. Treasury bond market was closed on Friday for the holiday, but 10-year yields rose 4.7 basis points (bps) to 4.34%, while the 2-year yield jumped 9.3 bps to 3.882%.
Gold firmed 0.4% to $3,336 per ounce, on track for a weekly gain as investors again sought refuge in safe-haven assets due to concerns over the U.S.’s fiscal position and tariffs.

Brent crude futures fell 57 cents to $68.23 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 66 cents to $66.34, as Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin gave President Donald Trump a “very big middle finger” by launching massive strikes on Ukraine within hours after they wrapped up their telephone call on Thursday, and the United States must respond with further support for Ukraine, Kurt Volker, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, told Newsmax Saturday.

“Trump did everything possible to make concessions and offers to Putin,” Volker said on Newsmax’s “Saturday Agenda.” “He was bending over backward to try to bring Putin to the table, to bring about a ceasefire and make it on as good a terms as possible for Putin, and Putin has just outright rejected this.”

And now, the next steps should be a reliable supply of arms and ammunition to Ukraine, which it can pay for, said Volker.

“This is not American taxpayers providing this in the future,” said Volker. “This will be through loans to Ukraine, or paid by European loans, or paid for by this minerals deal.”

Further, the United States must put pressure on Putin’s state budget, said Volker.

“He is still making money from oil and gas and financial transactions,” he said. “We need to impose the secondary sanctions that [Sen.] Lindsey Graham has proposed in the Senate as soon as possible.”

Meanwhile, North Korea is reportedly deploying an additional 25,000 troops to Russia, and Volker said he thinks the motivation is so it can get more missile technology, as well as getting Russia to cover it at the United Nations.

“North Korea wants to pursue its nuclear program,” he said.”It wants to pursue putting those nuclear weapons on missiles and wants help from Russia to do that. So it’s perfectly happy to sacrifice a few thousand troops as far as how much it helps Russia.”

North Korea’s artillery shells do help Russia, as they allow the Russians to continue their barrages at the front line, said Volker.

“But 30,000 troops is not a large number, and that’s about the number that Russia loses in a month to six weeks, something like that,” he continued. “So that’s not a game changer.”

Further, the argument going on about whether the United States needs to conserve its own weapons or provide them to Ukraine is a “false choice,” said Volker.

“North Korea, China, Iran, and Russia are all working together, and their one objective is to weaken the United States and weaken the West,” he added. “If we can help Ukraine weaken Russia instead, that is a very good use of our ammunition.”

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Joe Biden and his son are not the only reason Ukraine exploded with Russia.

This started Feb 9, 1990, James Baker III the Sec of State said to Mikhail Gorbachav, NATO will not move one inch eastwood if you agree to German Unification basically ending WW II. The US then cheated in 1994 when Clinton signed off on a plan to extend NATO all the way to Ukraine. This is when the so-called NEOCONS took power. Clinton as the first agent of this. Expansion of NATO started in 1999 with Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. Russian shrugged that off thinking was no direct threat.Then the U.S. led the bombing of Servia in 1999. This was bad because because it was NATA bombing a European capital, Belgrade 78 days to break the country apart. Russians did not like that but Putin became President and swallowed it andu even started out pro-European and pro-American suggesting that they should join NATO thinking there was still some mutual respect.  Then came 911 and Afghanistan and the Russians said we can support you to root out terror.  In 2002 the U.S. unilaterally walked out of the anti-ballistic missle treaty which led to the US putting in missile systems in Eastern Europe which Russia views as a dire direct threat to national security, making possible a ‘deapitation strike’ on missiles a few minutes away from Moscow. US put in two AEGIS missile systems calling it ‘defense’.  Russia asked how do we know its not Tomahawk nuclear tipped missiles. In 2003 we invaded Iraq on completely phony. In 2004-5 US was involved in a soft regime change in Ukraine. Called the ‘First Color Revolution. Put in President Yushchenko. US had it dirty hands in this meddling in other countries elections. In 2009 Yamukovych won the election and became President on the basis of neutrality for Ukraine.  People of Ukraine did not want NATO. Country was divided between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians.  ‘Why do want this? In 2014 the US particpated actively in the overthrow of Yamukovych – a typical US regime change operation. In 2019 we walked out of the Intermediate Nuclar Force Treaty. In 2017 we walked out of the JCPOA Treaty with Iran. On Dec 15, 2021 Putin put on the table a draft US/Russia Security Agreement. The basis of it was no NATO enlargement. Jake Sullivan said the U.S. had an OPEN DOOR policy.

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WHO IS MARK LEIBOVIT?

MARK LEIBOVIT is Chief Market Strategist for LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS a/k/a VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (TM) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.

Mark’s extensive media television profile includes seven years as a consultant ‘Elf’ on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week” television program, and over thirty years as a Market Monitor guest for PBS “The Nightly Business Report”. He also has appeared on Fox Business News, CNBC, BNN (Canada), and Bloomberg, and has been interviewed in Barrons, Business Week, Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks.

In the January 2, 2020 edition of TIMER DIGEST MAGAZINE, Mark Leibovit was ranked the #1 U.S. Stock Market Timer and was previously ranked #1 Intermediate U.S. Market Timer for the ten year period December, 1997 to 2007.

He was a ‘Market Maker’ on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Midwest Options Exchange and then went on to work in the Research department of two Chicago based brokerage firms. Mr. Leibovit now publishes a series of newsletters at www.LeibovitVRNewsletters.com. He became a member of the Market Technicians Association in 1982.

Mr. Leibovit’s specialty is Volume Analysis and his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. He has historical experience recognizing, bull and bear markets and signaling alerts prior to market crashes. His indicator is currently available on the Metastock platform.

His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis, The Trader’s Book of Volume published by McGraw-Hill is a definitive guide to volume trading. It is now also published in Chinese. Mark has appeared in speaking engagements and seminars in the U.S. and Canada.

Yes, that’s a cartoon of me. Louis Rukeyser had us dressed up in ‘elf’ costumes on the screen broadcast each week. I’ve dated myself. That occurred for me between 1988-1996. Lou didn’t like any bearish comments, so myself and other elves got dumped in 1996.

I APPEARED AS A GUEST PANELIST WITH LOUIS RUKEYSER ONE MONTH BEFORE IN MID-SEPTEMBER 1987

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G EDWARD GRIFFIN

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