WELCOME TO LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS – WEDNESDAY – MARCH 6, 2024

BULL TRAP STILL UNDERWAY

It symbolizes power, good fortune, and strength and is associated with auspicious traits like intelligence, ambition and charisma. Historically linked with imperial power, Chinese emperors considered themselves descendants of dragons, emphasizing the dragon’s esteemed position.

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U.S. Stocks Move Sharply Lower Ahead Of Powell Testimony

Following the modest pullback seen during the previous session, stocks showed a more substantial move to the downside during trading on Tuesday. The major averages all moved notably lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing a particularly steep drop.

The major averages climbed off their worst levels going into the close but remained firmly negative. The Nasdaq plunged 267.92 points or 1.7 percent to 15,939.59, the S&P 500 tumbled 52.30 points or 1.0 percent to 5,078.65 and the Dow slumped 404.64 points or 1.0 percent to 38,585.19.

The weakness on Wall Street came as traders continued to cash in on recent strength in the markets, which lifted the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record closing highs last Friday.

Uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates also weighed on the markets ahead of congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Powell is due to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

The Fed chief is likely to reiterate recent comments stressing the central bank needs greater confidence inflation is slowing before cutting interest rates.

The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for March 19-20, with the Fed widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

In U.S. economic news, a report released by the Institute for Supply Management showed U.S. service sector growth slowed by slightly more than expected in the month of February.

The ISM said its services PMI fell to 52.6 in February after climbing to 53.4 in January. While a reading above 50 still indicates growth, economists had expected the index to show a more modest decrease to 53.0.

The Commerce Department also released a report showing a steep drop in new orders for U.S. manufactured goods in the month of January.

Sector News

Software stocks showed a substantial move to the downside on the day, resulting in a 3.4 percent nosedive by the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index down.

Among software stocks, GitLab (GTLB) plummeted by 21.0 percent after the company reported better than expected fourth quarter results but provided disappointing guidance.

Significant weakness was also visible among semiconductor stocks, as reflected by the 2.1 percent slump by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

Commercial real estate, housing and transportation stocks also saw notable weakness, while banking stocks showed a strong move to the upside.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly lower during trading on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index closed just below the unchanged line, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunged by 2.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets turned in a mixed performance on the day. While the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index inched up by 0.1 percent, the German DAX Index edged down by 0.1 percent and the French CAC 40 Index fell by 0.3 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries moved notably higher, more than offsetting the pullback seen in the previous session. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slid 8.2 basis points to 4.137 percent.

Looking Ahead

Powell’s congressional testimony is likely to be in the spotlight on Wednesday, although reports on private sector employment and job openings are also likely to attract attention along with the Fed’s Beige Book.

 

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Gold rises above $2,100 to highest level ever as traders bet on interest rate cuts -CNBC

by Spencer Kimball

Gold futures settled at the highest level ever on Monday as traders bet the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year.

The gold contract for April gained $30.60, or 1.46%, to settle at $2,126.30 per ounce, the highest level dating back to the contract’s creation in 1974.

It is the second consecutive trading session in a row in which gold has settled at a record, with the April contract closing at an all-time high of $2,095.70 on Friday.

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) closed higher by 4.3% and for its third consecutive day of gains. It’s also trading above the 50-day moving average of $28.295 for the first time since Jan.12.

When adjusted for inflation, gold set an all-time high of about $3,200 in 1980, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group.

“We’re still a ways away, which then also points to the potential upside,” said Boockvar, who thinks gold will also test the inflation-adjusted record.

Gold has performed well despite high interest rates and a strong dollar, he said. This is largely due to the world’s central banks buying an enormous amount of gold after the U.S. and European Union confiscated $300 billion of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, he said. 

America on Eve of Banking Crisis, Warns Ex-IMF Official, With Hundreds of Lenders at Risk of Failure -The Daily Hodl

by Alex Richardson

A former IMF official believes the U.S. Federal Reserve has pushed America to the brink of another banking crisis.

Desmond Lachman, who was deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department, says in a new blog post for public policy think tank The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) that Fed Chair
Jerome Powell is “inviting a banking crisis.”

With banks already under pressure, Lachman says the Fed is making matters worse by keeping monetary policy tight, and liquidity thin.

The ex-IMF official says it’s a mistake that’s significantly raised the odds of a hard landing for the US economy while pushing lenders to the eve of a fresh banking crisis.

“In 2021, the Fed chose to ignore the markedly expansionary fiscal policy stance when it kept flooding the market with liquidity. The net result was a surge in inflation by June 2022 to a multi-decade high of over 9%.

Today, it seems to be making the opposite mistake of keeping monetary policy tight on the eve of a banking crisis at home and a weakening economic situation abroad. Unfortunately, this raises the risk of a hard economic landing within
the next year or so.”

Lachman warns that commercial real estate, which makes up a major portion of US banks’ loan portfolios, is a clear Achilles heel for the industry that could result in the failure of around 385 small and medium-sized banks. 

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