Newsletters, Reports, Updates, and Alerts from a Top Market Timer with 44 Years of Experience

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U.S. MARKETS:

After an early move to the upside, stocks saw substantial volatility in the latter part of the trading session on Friday. The major averages showed wild swings back and forth across the unchanged line before eventually ending the day modestly lower.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq edged down 12.18 points or 0.1 percent 13,211.81, its lowest closing level in over three months. The S&P 500 also dipped 9.94 points or 0.2 percent to a three-month closing low of 4,320.06, while the Dow fell 106.58 points or 0.3 percent to a two-month closing low of 33,963.84.

Largely reflecting the sell-off seen on Wednesday and Thursday, the Nasdaq showed a 3.6 percent nosedive for the week. The S&P 500 also plunged by 2.9 percent, while the Dow tumbled by 1.9 percent.

The early strength on Wall Street partly reflected bargain hunting, with traders picking up stocks at reduced levels following the sell-off seen over the two previous sessions.

Buying interest waned over the course of the session, however, as concerns about the outlook for interest rates continued to weigh on the markets.

While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as widely expected on Wednesday, the central bank forecast another rate hike before the end of the year as well as keeping rates at elevated levels for longer than previously anticipated.

Traders may also have been reluctant to make significant bets ahead of the release of some key economic data next week that could impact the outlook for interest rates.

Next week will see the release of a report on personal income and spending that includes readings on inflation said to be preferred by the Fed.

Sector News

Most of the major sectors ended the day showing only modest moves contributing to the lackluster close by the broader markets.

Airline stocks showed a significant move to the downside, however, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index falling by 1.5 percent to its lowest closing level in six months.

Significant weakness also emerged among banking stocks, as reflected by the 1.3 percent loss posted by the KBW Bank Index. The index fell to a nearly three-month closing low.

Tobacco and commercial real estate stocks also saw some weakness on the day, while strength remained visible among computer hardware and software socks.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region turned in a mixed performance during trading on Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index slid by 0.5 percent, while China's Shanghai Composite Index jumped by 1.6 percent.

The major European markets also finished the day mixed. While the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index inched up by 0.1 percent, the German DAX Index edged down by 0.1 percent and the French CAC 40 Index fell by 0.4 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries regained ground following the sell-off seen in the previous session. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slid 4.2 basis points to 4.438 percent.

Looking Ahead

The Fed's preferred inflation readings are likely to be in focus next week, while traders are also likely to keep

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U.S. MARKETS:

Extending the sell-off seen late in the previous session, stocks moved sharply lower over the course of the trading day on Thursday. The major averages all posted steep losses on the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunging to its lowest closing level in over three months.

The major averages saw further downside going into the close, ending the day just off their lows of the session. The Nasdaq plummeted 245.14 points or 1.8 percent to 13,223.98, the S&P 500 dove 72.20 points or 1.6 percent to 4,330.00 and the Dow tumbled 370.46 points or 1.1 percent to 34,070.42.

Concerns about the outlook for interest rates continued to weigh on Wall Street following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

While the Fed left interest rates unchanged as widely expected, the central bank forecast another rate hike before the end of the year as well as keeping rates at elevated levels for longer than previously anticipated.

"12 of 19 governors at this point currently favor one more interest rate increase in the next two meetings before the end of the year," said Alex McGrath, Chief Investment officer for NorthEnd Private Wealth. "Additionally the dot plot for rate expectations in 2024 was higher than it had been in previous meetings signaling a hawkish outlook for rates next year, cementing their higher for longer stance."

He added, "Heading into the fourth quarter with rate expectations remaining elevated, we are more than likely in for a choppy end of the year as the markets digest an outlook less favorable for the growth assets that have driven the market for 2023."

The worries about interest rates contributed to a surge by treasury yields, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note jumping to its highest level in almost sixteen years.

Adding to the concerns about interest rates, the Labor Department released a report this morning showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low in the week ended September 16th.

The report said initial jobless claims dipped to 201,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level of 221,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 225,000 from the 220,000 originally reported for the previous week.

With the unexpected decrease, jobless claims fell to their lowest level since hitting 199,000 in the week ended January 28th.

However, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lead .S. Economist at Oxford Economics, said, "The claims data don't change our call for the Fed to keep rates steady before embarking on a very gradual pace of rate cuts in mid-2024."

"A sharp rise in unemployment and claims isn't a prerequisite for the Fed to stop raising rates," she added. "Fed Chair Powell yesterday noted that the labor market is coming into better balance without a rise in the unemployment rate."

Sector News

Interest rate-sensitive commercial real estate stocks saw substantial weakness on the day, resulting in a 3.5 percent nosedive by the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. The index plunged to its lowest closing level in almost six months.

Considerable weakness was also visible among housing stocks, with the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index tumbling by 2.7 percent to a three-month closing low.

The weakness in the housing sector came after the National Association of Realtors released a report unexpectedly showing a continued decrease in existing home sales.

NAR said existing home sales fell by 0.7 percent to an annual rate of 4.04 million in August after tumbling by 2.2 percent to an annual rate of 4.07 million in July. Economists had expected existing home sales to rise to a rate of 4.10 million.

Retail stocks also saw significant weakness on the day, as reflected by the 2.6 percent slump by the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index.

Networking, gold and brokerage stocks also showed notable moves to the downside amid broad based weakness on Wall Street.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly lower during trading on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index dove by 1.4 percent, while China's Shanghai Composite Index slid by 0.8 percent.

The major European markets also saw significant weakness on the day. While the French CAC 40 Index plunged by 1.6 percent, the German DAX Index tumbled by 1.3 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index fell by 0.7 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries moved sharply lower amid concerns about the outlook for interest rates. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, spiked 13.1 basis points to a nearly sixteen-year closing high of 4.480 percent.

Looking Ahead

Following the slew of data released this morning, the U.S. economic calendar is relatively quiet on Friday, potentially leading to choppy trading.

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Mark Leibovit: Value of US Dollar Tied to Interest Rates

https://tinyurl.com/bdejpjuv

---

SPY - WEEKLY - BULLS ON THE RUN HERE AS FORECAST

 

CRYPTO UPDATE AS OF SEPTEMBER 21

CANNABIS MOVERS AND SHAKERS SEPTEMBER 21

 

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U.S. MARKETS:

With renewed concerns about the outlook for interest rates weighing on the markets, stocks moved mostly lower over the course of the trading session on Wednesday.

The major averages spent much of the session on opposite sides of the unchanged but all came under pressure late in the trading day.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the way lower, tumbling 209.06 points or 1.5 percent to 13,469.13, its lowest closing level in almost a month.

The S&P 500 also slumped 41.75 points or 0.9 percent to a nearly one-month closing low of 4,402.20, while the Dow posted a more modest loss, slipping 76.85 points or
0.2 percent to 34,440.88.

The late-day sell-off on Wall Street came after the Federal Reserve announced its widely expected decision to leave interest rates unchanged but raised its forecast
for rates at the end of next year.

The Fed said it decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50 percent after raising rates by 25 basis points in July.

However, the central bank's latest projections suggest Fed officials expect one more rate hike this year, forecasting a median rate of 5.6 percent by the end of 2023.

While the forecast for the end of the year was unchanged from June, the latest projections also indicate officials expect rates to remain higher for longer than
previously anticipated.

The forecast for rates at the end of 2024 was raised to 5.1 percent from 4.6 percent in June, while the outlook for rates at the end of 2025 was increased to 3.9
percent from 3.4 percent.

Expectations for rates to remain higher for longer may reflect an improved assessment of the economy, with the Fed's statement saying economic activity has been
expanding at a "solid pace" compared to the "moderate pace" described in July.

"While this meeting was widely viewed as a 'skip' meeting, we think it still remains to be seen if another hike is in the cards later this year," said Charlie Ripley,
Senior Investment Strategist for Allianz Investment Management. "Fed officials appear to be divided on whether higher policy rates are needed to bring inflation back
down to their 2% target."

"In addition, there are significant risks to the economy on the horizon with the autoworkers strike in motion and the potential for a government shutdown looming," he
added. "Both these events could sideline the Fed from another hike this year."

The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 31-November 1, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicating a 73.6 percent chance rates will
remain unchanged and a 26.4 percent chance of a quarter point rate increase.

Semiconductor stocks showed a significant move to the downside, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down by 1.7 percent to its lowest closing level in almost
four months.

Software and networking stocks also saw considerable weakness on the day, contributing to the steep drop by the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Weakness also emerged among energy stocks, while gold stocks saw notable strength amid an increase by the price of the precious metal.

With gold for December delivery climbing $13.40 to $1,967.10 an ounce, the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index advanced by 1.4 percent.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly lower during trading on Wednesday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index slid by 0.7 percent, while
China's Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets moved to the upside on the day. While the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index advanced by 0.9 percent, the German DAX Index climbed by 0.8 and the French CAC 40 Index increased by 0.7 percent.

In the bond market, treasuries saw considerable volatility following the Fed announcement but managed to close modestly higher. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slipped 1.6 basis points to 4.349 percent.

Looking Ahead

Trading on Thursday may continue to be impacted by reaction to the Fed announcement, while reports on weekly jobless claims, existing home sales and Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity may also attract attention.

Courtesy Don Vialoux:

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SPY - WEEKLY - BULLS MAY BE ON THE RUN HERE!

 

CRYPTO UPDATE AS OF SEPTEMBER 20

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DISCLAIMER:

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