• Loading stock data...
Stock Market Newsletter, Mark Leibovit, VRtrader.com, #1 Market Timer2023-11-17T20:49:34-07:00

Newsletters, Reports, Updates, and Alerts from a Top Market Timer with 44 Years of Experience


Newsletters & Reports

VR Canna Sector Report
VR Trading Ace
VR Platinum
VR Forecaster
VR Silver - leibovit vr newsletters - product
Mark's - Traders-book-of-volume

Leibovit Volume Reversal Add-Ons Available At

MetaStock-Logo
Logos

News & Updates

1803, 2024

WELCOME TO LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS - 'TURNAROUND TUESDAY' - MARCH 19, 2024

March 18th, 2024|0 Comments

HISTORICALLY A GOOD SIGN OF A MARKET TOP = BULLISH MEDIA HEADLINES LIKE THIS

BULL TRAP STILL UNDERWAY

It symbolizes power, good fortune, and strength and is associated with auspicious traits like intelligence, ambition and charisma. Historically linked with imperial power, Chinese emperors considered themselves descendants of dragons, emphasizing the dragon's esteemed position.


THE VR FORECASTER - ANNUAL FORECAST MODEL 

ORDER TODAY AND WE WILL MANUALLY EMAIL YOU THE REPORT BEFORE IT IS POSTED ON THE WEBSITE

HERE IS THE 2023 ANNUAL FORECAST MODEL WITH THE 'RESULTS' SUPERIMPOSED

HERE IS THE 2023 ANNUAL FORECAST MODEL FOR BITCOIN WITH THE 'RESULTS' SUPERIMPOSED

ORDER PAGE

http://tinyurl.com/5f7wb6zs


https://www.howestreet.com/2024/03/cannabis-gold-bitcoin-us-dollar-mark-leibovit/


DID YOU MISS  LAST WEDNESDAY'S METASTOCK  MARK LEIBOVIT WEBINAR - POWERPOINT?

https://tinyurl.com/yc45s35c


U.S. Stocks Give Back Ground After Early Rally But Close Mostly Higher

After showing a strong move to the upside early in the session, stocks gave back some ground over the course of the trading day on Monday but managed to close mostly higher. With the upward move, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 regained ground after closing lower for three straight sessions.

While the major averages came under pressure going into the close, they managed to end the day in positive territory. The Nasdaq advanced 130.27 points or 0.8 percent at 16,103.45, the S&P 500 climbed 32.33 points or 0.6 percent to 5,149.42 and the Dow rose 75.66 points or 0.2 percent at 38,790.43.

Technology stocks helped lead the early rally on Wall Street, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing a particularly strong move to the upside.

Shares of Alphabet (GOOGL) surged by 4.6 percent after a report from Bloomberg said Apple (AAPL) is in talks to build Google's Gemini artificial intelligence engine into the iPhone.

Nvidia (NVDA) also jumped early in the session ahead of its GTC Conference, where the chipmaker is expected to provide updates on its AI initiatives, but gave back ground before ending the day up by 0.7 percent.

At the same time, shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plunged by 6.4 percent after the information technology company was added to the S&P 500 before the start of trading.

Meanwhile, traders continued to look ahead to the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but the central bank's accompanying statement and economic projections could have a significant impact on the outlook for rates.

Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have reduced optimism about the likelihood of the Fed's first rate cut coming in June.

In U.S. economic news, a report released by the National Association of Home Builders showed an unexpected improvement in U.S. homebuilder confidence in the month of March.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 51 in March from 48 in February. Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged.

With the unexpected increase, the housing market index surpassed the breakeven point of 50 for the first time since hitting 56 last July.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly higher during trading on Monday. Japan's Nikkei 225 Index surged by 2.7 percent, while China's Shanghai Composite Index jumped by 1.0 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets moved modestly lower on the day. While the French CAC 40 Index dipped by 0.2 percent, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index edged down by 0.1 percent and the German DAX Index closed just below the unchanged line.

In the bond market, treasuries extended the downward trend seen throughout the previous week. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 3.6 basis points to a three-month closing high of 4.340 percent.

Looking Ahead

Trading activity on Tuesday may be somewhat subdued as traders look ahead to the Fed announcement, although a report on new residential construction may attract some attention.

 


Gold Is JPMorgan’s Top Pick in Commodities With Price Eyeing $2,500 -Bloomberg

by Yvonne Yue Li and Tope Alake

Gold is the No. 1 pick in commodities markets for JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the price has the potential to reach $2,500 an ounce this year, according to the bank’s global head of commodities research.

“We believe that $2,500 is a possibility” after bullion reached an all-time high of $2,195.15 on Friday, Natasha Kaneva said during a Bloomberg TV interview. “Because the market tends to get overexcited.”

To achieve that price target, “we need a confirmation from continued moderation in the inflation and in the jobs numbers as well and the confirmations that the Fed indeed is cutting,” said Kaneva.

The Fed’s long-anticipated pivot to looser monetary policy is widely expected to boost gold’s appeal compared with yield-bearing assets like bonds. Policymakers have said they needed to see more evidence that inflation is headed toward
its 2% target before lowering borrowing costs.


National Association of Realtors to cut commissions to settle lawsuits. Here's the financial impact.

(RE COMMISSIONS ARE COMING DOWN, FOLKS!

It could soon cost homeowners a lot less to sell their homes after a real estate trade group agreed to slash commissions to settle lawsuits against it.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) agreed on Friday to pay $418 million over roughly four years to resolve all claims against the group by home sellers related to broker commissions. The agreement must still be approved by a court.

Almost 9 in 10 home sales are handled by real estate agents affiliated with NAR. The organization, the country's largest trade association, requires home sellers to determine a commission rate, typically 6%, before listing homes on its property database, known as the Multiple Listing Service, or MLS.

The lawsuits argued that the structure harms competition and leads to higher prices.

"NAR has worked hard for years to resolve this litigation in a manner that benefits our members and American consumers. It has always been our goal to preserve consumer choice and protect our members to the greatest extent possible," NAR interim CEO Nykia Wright said in a statement Friday. "This settlement achieves both of those goals,"

How will this impact real estate commissions?
Notably, the landmark deal will slash realtors' standard 6% sales commission fee, potentially leading to significant savings for homeowners. The group had been found liable for inflating agent compensation.

Fees could be slashed by up to 30%, the New York Times reported, citing economists.

That could impact earnings for 1.6 million real estate agents, who could see their $100 billion annual commission pool shrink by about one-third, analysts with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods wrote in a report last year about the pending litigation.

Standard commission rates in the U.S. are among the highest in the world. Real estate agents make money by pocketing a percentage of a home's sale price.

Could homeowners save money?
Most likely, because homeowners are generally on the hook to pay the 6% commission when they sell their property, although sometimes the fee is split between the buyer and seller.

For instance, a homeowner selling a $1 million property would spend up to to $60,000 on agent fees. If commissions are reduced by 30%, that same homeowner would pay a commission of about $42,000.

How will it impact the housing market?
Housing experts expect the deal to shake up the housing market and even drive down home prices across the board.

Residential brokerage analyst Steve Murray, however, is skeptical that home prices will see a meaningful decrease as a result of the deal.

"It will have the impact of reducing commission costs for sellers; it will save money for sellers to the detriment of buyers," he said, adding, "Sellers don't set home prices based on what their closing costs will be," Murray said. "The market sets home prices."

While lower or more negotiable commission fees could incentivize some new homebuyers, LendingTree senior economist Jacob Channel doesn't expect the market to roar "back to life in the wake of this settlement," while mortgage rates remain high.

"Home prices and [mortgage] rates almost certainly play a much bigger role in someone's homebuying choices than how much they'll need to pay their real estate agent does," he said.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-banks-with-the-most-commercial-real-estate-exposure/

US, European Union React to BRICS Rapid Growth -watcher.guru

We have been warning about the impact of BRICS for some time now. The US has addressed the progression of BRICS where it can and the likely economic fallout their advancement represents. It would seem BRICS is moving along so quickly, there will be no catching up.

by Michael Grullon

BRICSThe BRICS bloc is ready to continue its expansion in 2024. Successfully inducting multiple new nations in January, the bloc is expected to invite more countries to join sometime this year. With more countries showing interest in BRICS and its missions, the United States and the European Union are facing a new developing threat.

BRICS is advancing at a rapid pace in its de-dollarization efforts by cutting ties with the US dollar. The new members have begun settling trade in local currencies by ending dependency on the greenback. Furthermore, India, China, Russia, and the UAE have started using their respective local currencies, reducing their reliance on the US dollar.

Multiple political/economic voices in the United have shared their concerns about the future of BRICS and its impact on the United States. As BRICS continues to grow, some are sure that its growth will pose an immediate threat.

US Politician Marco Rubio shared a warning to the US recently about BRICS, saying that its growth might interfere with the ability to exert sanctions on other nations. “If current trends continue, it will become harder and harder for the United States to prevent international violence and oppression through sanctions,” Rubio wrote in a recent op-ed article/open letter. 


Gold’s Got the Midas Touch Back - Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

After two years of trading in a 20% range between $1,600 and $2,000 per ounce, gold finally broke out to the upside, closing at a new all-time high of $2,126 per ounce on March 4.

Better yet, if you're a gold investor, gold has held its ground around $2,100 per ounce since breaking that ceiling (gold's trading at around $2,187 today).

The price is volatile, but gold broke even higher on March 5 when it hit $2,140 on an intra-day basis. Before getting too euphoric, gold investors should recall that the $800 per ounce record set in January 1980 during borderline hyperinflation would be $3,200 per ounce in today’s dollars if adjusted for inflation.

That can be a splash of cold water in the face. On the other hand, it's highly encouraging. If gold is in a new bull market, $3,200 per ounce looks more like a price target than an insurmountable hurdle.

But I continually remind gold investors, whether in bullion or mining shares, not to get too euphoric when gold rallies and not to get too depressed when the dollar price retreats. Gold is still the best form of money and proves valuable to investors over time.

The bigger questions are: What are the factors driving gold higher, and will they continue the trend? 


Central Banks Boost Gold Reserves to Diversify from the Dollar -Yahoo! Finance

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist

chartPowell might not be overly worried about inflation - with his recent comments reiterating the Federal Reserve is on track to cut rates this year - but other central banks are not so relaxed. Gold’s new high signals global central banks are likely accumulating the precious metal in an effort to diversify away from the dollar, as persistently large fiscal deficits threaten to further erode its real value and lead to more inflation.

Gold’s move in recent days has been broad as well as pronounced (as well as hinted at by low gold vol), with the precious metal making 50-year highs versus three-quarters of major DM and EM currencies. The biggest holdings of gold after jewellery are for private investment - ETFs, bars and coins - followed by central banks’ official reserve holdings.

In recent years the swing buyers have been ETFs, which hold about 2,500 tonnes of gold. But ETF holdings have been falling even as the dollar price of gold has been rising.

The dollar has been stable and real yields (which anyway have a non-linear relationship with gold) are higher over the last three months. The bulk of seasonal buying, for instance Diwali in India, is likely behind us. Further, silver has not participated in the rise. It’s therefore a reasonable supposition the official sector, i.e. central banks, has been a significant driver of gold’s recent ascent to new highs.

The 5 Charts The FDIC Doesn't Want You to See - Swiss America Daily News Digest Inbox

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-5-charts-fdic-does-not-want-you-paying-attention

Washington's "Problem Bank List" rose again last quarter, capping off a year when US lenders struggled to cope with higher interest rates and more overdue loans for commercial buildings and credit cards.

The FDIC's confidential tally of lenders with with financial, operational or managerial weaknesses had grown by eight banks to 52, representing 1.1% of the institutions it oversees. The total assets held by those firms increased by $12.8
billion last quarter to $66.3 billion.

Although the number of firms on the FDIC's list remains relatively low compared with historical highs, it continues an increasing trend that started early last year.

Always-friendly Senator Liz Warren lambasted Fed Chair Jay Powell today, claiming that "greedy bank executives" were behind bank failures, and the Fed needs to do its job of regulating those institutions.

Powell responded by saying they've reached out to banks with high levels of uninsured deposits and high levels of office real estate debt, adding that The Fed is examining whether they are "being truthful" with themselves.

With regard to being "truthful", as we detailed previously, many of the loans on banks' books are dramatically mispriced (over-valued):

"The worry now is that such firesales will set an example for other major investors seeking a way out of the turmoil too, forcing a wholesale crash in the Manhattan real estate market which until now had managed to avoid real price
discovery."

Warren responds by exclaiming that Powell has "gone weak-kneed" on bank regulation, concluding with this shot across the bow:

"the American people need a leader at the Fed who has the courage to stand up to these banks." 

Bank of America Issues Warning of a US Dollar Collapse -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

The US national debt is now growing by $1 trillion every 100 days since 2023. The uncontrolled debt could lead to a financial disaster wreaking havoc not only in the US but across the world. BRICS and other developing countries are worried that a US dollar debt could make their native economies crash. Keeping the US dollar in reserves is now seen as a threat that could undo years of financial stability.

The US dollar national debt now touched a new high of $34.4 trillion and is barely under control. Elected representatives at Capitol Hill and officials from the Federal Reserve are unable to tame the ever-growing debt.

Amid the economic turbulence, Bank of America has issued a warning about a possible US dollar collapse. Moreover, this allows BRICS to spread the de-dollarization initiative across the world.

BRICS: Growing Debt Risks Exposure of a US Dollar Collapse, Warns Bank of America

Bank of America warned in the latest piece that the US dollar and economy face a “blowout year” in 2024. The growing national debt is the main reason why the US economy could be poised to head south. “The US national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days,” Michael Hartnett, Chief Strategist of Bank of America wrote.

Hartnett warned that the collapse of the US dollar is imminent if the debt grows out of control this year. “This doesn’t end well,” wrote Genevieve Roch-Decter, a former Asset Manager at the Grit Capital. Also, BRICS is now waiting for a possible US dollar decline and could advance with a new currency in the global market.

Top real estate CEO warns ‘500 or more’ banks will either fail or be consolidated over the next two years -Yahoo! Finance

The talking heads at the Fed want us to believe our banking woes are behind us, but our clients continue to share their concerns that we've only seen the beginning. More and more experts in this sector are sounding an alarm that the coming commercial real estate correction will be devastating for banks. We tend to agree.

by Will Daniel

Ever since four regional banks holding a combined $532 billion in assets—headlined by Silicon Valley Bank—failed in March 2023, regional banks have been under scrutiny from regulators. And given the commercial real estate (CRE) industry’s issues, a key focus has been on banks with the most exposure to the volatile sector.

In an upcoming white paper seen exclusively by Fortune, RXR CEO Scott Rechler described how regional banks will face a “slow-moving train wreck” as waves of commercial real estate loans mature over the next few years. Rechler has faith that many commercial real estate owners, operators, and lenders will figure out a way to overcome the challenges facing them, but he’s more skeptical about regional banks. “I think there's going to be…500 or more fewer banks in the U.S. over the next two years,” he said. “I'm not saying they're all going to fail, but they're going to be forced into consolidation if they don't fail.”

“They don't have a business model that's going to enable them to stand alone, and be competitive, and retain deposits and service customers the way that they have,” he added.

Regulators’ fears about regional banks with exposure to CRE aren’t unfounded, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) being the prime example. Shares of NYCB have plummeted roughly 78% from their July 2023 peak due to concerns over the bank’s CRE exposure. The pain accelerated after NYCB reported a surprise fourth-quarter loss and slashed its dividend on Jan. 31, 2024, because it had to put away more money to cover its CRE holdings.

For Rechler, regional banks’ CRE exposure could even end up being a “systemic issue.”

$1 Trillion in 100 Days! -Daily Reckoning

What used to take 205 years, now takes 100 days! This sounds like an innovation in efficiency, but sadly, it's just the astounding growth rate of the US debt. Can we continue on this trajectory? It seems impossible, but when have you ever known the government to slow down spending?

by Brian Maher

How does a man descend into bankruptcy?

Gradually — then suddenly — in Mr. Hemingway’s famous telling.

The United States government has passed beyond bankruptcy’s gradual phase.

It has entered bankruptcy’s sudden phase.

Mr. Michael Hartnett, Bank of America’s chief strategist:

“The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days.”

United States debt first scaled $1 trillion 205 years after its inception. And today?

The work of 205 years presently reduces to 100 days.

$1 trillion every 100 days? Impossible — but there you have it: Debt Goes Exponential

And so today a pearl of sorrow courses down our crimson cheek… a mournful tear upon the ashes of the nation’s finances.

We fear its debt is assuming the hellacious form of a parabola.

That is, the business begins to assume an exponential aspect.

If only the nation’s gross domestic product could maintain pace with its parabolic and exponential debt.

It cannot… alas.

As gold scales all-time highs, Wall Street analysts say it has even further to go

Gold is headed higher and it's not stopping soon. As we kick off a very uncertain year, gold should shine until at least November, and likely even longer based on who is elected.

by Jenni Reid

Gold prices pushed higher Tuesday after futures pricing for the precious metal notched fresh records in the previous two sessions — with analysts seeing strength lasting at least into the second half of the year.

The gold contract for April on Monday closed above $2,100 per ounce for the first time, and was up 0.37% at $2,134.2 at 1:15 p.m. in London. Spot gold was trading 0.7% higher at $2,129, though market-watchers note that in real terms, adjusted for inflation, gold is well below past peaks.

In a Monday note, analysts at Citi described themselves as “medium-term bullion bulls,” calling a 25% probability of gold averaging a record $2,300 per ounce in the second half. Their base case remains $2,150, and they reiterated a “wildcard” call for trade reaching $3,000 over the next 12 to 16 months.

Citi describes gold as a developed market “recession hedge,” and increasingly see tailwinds from uncertainty around the U.S. election in November.

Analysts at Berenberg also noted Monday that a Donald Trump victory in the election would provide a “major positive for gold,” with further support for the safe-haven asset from volatility around the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza

America on Eve of Banking Crisis, Warns Ex-IMF Official, With Hundreds of Lenders at Risk of Failure -The Daily Hodl

by Alex Richardson

A former IMF official believes the U.S. Federal Reserve has pushed America to the brink of another banking crisis.

Desmond Lachman, who was deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department, says in a new blog post for public policy think tank The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) that Fed Chair
Jerome Powell is “inviting a banking crisis.”

With banks already under pressure, Lachman says the Fed is making matters worse by keeping monetary policy tight, and liquidity thin.

The ex-IMF official says it’s a mistake that’s significantly raised the odds of a hard landing for the US economy while pushing lenders to the eve of a fresh banking crisis.

“In 2021, the Fed chose to ignore the markedly expansionary fiscal policy stance when it kept flooding the market with liquidity. The net result was a surge in inflation by June 2022 to a multi-decade high of over 9%.

Today, it seems to be making the opposite mistake of keeping monetary policy tight on the eve of a banking crisis at home and a weakening economic situation abroad. Unfortunately, this raises the risk of a hard economic landing within
the next year or so.”

Lachman warns that commercial real estate, which makes up a major portion of US banks’ loan portfolios, is a clear Achilles heel for the industry that could result in the failure of around 385 small and medium-sized banks. 


https://tinyurl.com/2rd9wv52


OPPORTUNITY TO ACCESS MARK LEIBOVIT'S PROPRIETARY VOLUME REVERSAL INDICATOR - THIS IS THE ONLY PLACE TO DO IT!

https://www.metastock.com/products/thirdparty/?3PC-ADD-VRIS



COME ON, DAD. IT'S TIME TO EAT

DISCLAIMER:

WE ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND DO NOT PROVIDE FINANCIAL ADVICE

The website, LeibovitVRNewsletters.com, is published by LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC.

In using LeibovitVRnewsletters.com (a/k/a LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC) you agree to these Terms & Conditions governing the use of the service. These Terms & Conditions are subject to change without notice. We are publishers and are not registered as a broker-dealer or investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities authority.

All stocks and ETFs discussed are HYPOTHETICAL and not actual trades whose actual execution may differ markedly from prices posted on the website and in emails. This may be due internet connectivity, quote delays, data entry errors and other market conditions. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations as to liquidity and execution among other variables. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR PROFITABLE TRADING RESULTS.

All investments are subject to risk, which should be considered on an individual basis before making any investment decision. We are not responsible for errors and omissions. These publications are intended solely for information and educational purposes only and the content within is not to be construed, under any circumstances, as an offer to buy or to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell or trade in any commodities or securities named within.

All commentary is provided for educational purposes only. This material is based upon information we consider reliable. However, accuracy is not guaranteed.  Subscribers should always do their own investigation before investing in any security. Furthermore, you cannot be assured that your will profit or that any losses can or will be limited. It is important to know that no guarantee of any kind is implied nor possible where projections of future conditions in the markets are attempted. 

Stocks and ETFs may be held by principals of LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC whose personal investment decisions including entry and exit points may differ from guidelines posted.

LeibovitVRNewsletters.com cannot and do not assess, verify or guarantee the suitability or profitability of any particular investment. You bear responsibility for your own investment research and decisions and should seek the advice of a  qualified securities professional before making any investment. As an express condition of using this service and anytime after ending the service, you agree not to hold LeibovitVRNewsletters.com or any employees liable for trading losses, lost profits or other damages resulting from your use of information on the Site in any form (Web-based, email-based, or downloadable software), and you agree to indemnify and hold LeibovitVRNewsletters.com and its employees harmless from and against any and all claims, losses, liabilities, costs, and expenses (including but not limited to attorneys' fees) arising from your violation of this agreement. This paragraph is not intended to limit rights available  to you or to us that may be available under the federal securities laws.

For rights, permissions, subscription and customer service, contact the publisher at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com or call at 928-282-1275 or mail to 10632 N. Scottsdale Road B-426, Scottsdale, AZ 85254.

The Leibovit Volume Reversal, Volume Reversal and Leibovit VR are registered trademarks.

© Copyright 2024.  All rights reserved.

[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

1603, 2024

WELCOME TO LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS - MONDAY - MARCH 18, 2024

March 16th, 2024|0 Comments

HISTORICALLY A GOOD SIGN OF A MARKET TOP = BULLISH MEDIA HEADLINES LIKE THIS

BULL TRAP STILL UNDERWAY

It symbolizes power, good fortune, and strength and is associated with auspicious traits like intelligence, ambition and charisma. Historically linked with imperial power, Chinese emperors considered themselves descendants of dragons, emphasizing the dragon's esteemed position.


THE VR FORECASTER - ANNUAL FORECAST MODEL 

ORDER TODAY AND WE WILL MANUALLY EMAIL YOU THE REPORT BEFORE IT IS POSTED ON THE WEBSITE

HERE IS THE 2023 ANNUAL FORECAST MODEL WITH THE 'RESULTS' SUPERIMPOSED

HERE IS THE 2023 ANNUAL FORECAST MODEL FOR BITCOIN WITH THE 'RESULTS' SUPERIMPOSED

ORDER PAGE

http://tinyurl.com/5f7wb6zs


https://www.howestreet.com/2024/03/cannabis-gold-bitcoin-us-dollar-mark-leibovit/


DID YOU MISS  LAST WEDNESDAY'S METASTOCK  MARK LEIBOVIT WEBINAR - POWERPOINT?

https://tinyurl.com/yc45s35c


Nasdaq, S&P 500 Close Lower For Third Straight Day As Fed Meeting Looms

With traders looking ahead to next week's Federal Reserve meeting, stocks moved mostly lower over the course of the trading session on Friday. With the downward move, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed lower for the third straight day.

The major averages finished the day off their worst levels but still firmly negative. The Nasdaq slumped 155.36 points or 1.0 percent to 15,973.17, the S&P 500 slid 33.39 points or 0.7 percent to 5,117.09 and the Dow fell 190.89 points or 0.5 percent to 38,714.77.

For the week, the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined by 0.7 percent, while the S&P 500 edged down by 0.1 percent and the Dow was nearly unchanged.

The weakness on Wall Street partly reflected concerns about the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting next week.

While the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, traders will look to the accompanying statement for clues about the outlook for rates.

Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have reduced optimism about the likelihood of the Fed's first rate cut coming in June.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its June meeting has climbed from 25 percent to 43.3 percent.

On the U.S. economic front, a report released by the Labor Department showed import prices in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of February.

The Labor Department said import prices rose by 0.3 percent in February after climbing by 0.8 percent in January. The uptick matched expectations.

Meanwhile, the report said export prices advanced by 0.8 percent in February following an upwardly revised 0.9 percent increase in January.

Economists had expected export prices to edge up by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.8 percent growth originally reported for the previous month.

The Fed also released a report showing a slight increase in U.S. industrial production in the month of February, with manufacturing and mining output recovering from weather-related declines in January

The Fed said industrial production inched up by 0.1 percent in February after falling by a downwardly revised 0.5 percent in January.

Economists had expected industrial production to come in unchanged compared to the 0.1 percent dip originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, preliminary data released by the University of Michigan unexpectedly showed a slight deterioration in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of March.

The report said the consumer sentiment index edged down to 76.5 in March after falling to 76.9 in February. Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged.

Year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations remained unchanged from the previous month at 3.0 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York also released a report showing New York manufacturing activity has contracted at a significantly accelerated rate in the month of March.

Sector News

Software stocks saw substantial weakness on the day, with the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index plunging by 2.7 percent after ending Thursday's session at its best closing level in over a month.

Adobe (ADBE) led the sector lower, plummeting by 13.7 percent after reporting better than expected fiscal first quarter results but providing disappointing revenue guidance for the current quarter.

Considerable weakness also emerged among computer hardware stocks, as reflected by the 1.2 percent loss posted by the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index.

Retail stocks also showed a notable move to the downside on the day, dragging the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index down by 1.2 percent.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region moved mostly lower on Friday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index tumbled by 1.4 percent and Japan's Nikkei 225 Index fell by 0.3 percent, although China's Shanghai Composite Index bucked the downtrend and rose by 0.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the major European markets turned in a lackluster performance on the day. While the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index dipped by 0.2 percent, the German DAX Index and the French CAC 40 Index ended the day roughly flat.

In the bond market, treasuries showed a lack of direction over the course of the session before closing roughly flat. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, crept up by less than a basis point to 4.304 percent.

Looking Ahead

The Fed's monetary policy meeting is likely to be in the spotlight next week, overshadowing reports on homebuilder confidence, housing starts and existing home sales.


Gold Is JPMorgan’s Top Pick in Commodities With Price Eyeing $2,500 -Bloomberg

by Yvonne Yue Li and Tope Alake

Gold is the No. 1 pick in commodities markets for JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the price has the potential to reach $2,500 an ounce this year, according to the bank’s global head of commodities research.

“We believe that $2,500 is a possibility” after bullion reached an all-time high of $2,195.15 on Friday, Natasha Kaneva said during a Bloomberg TV interview. “Because the market tends to get overexcited.”

To achieve that price target, “we need a confirmation from continued moderation in the inflation and in the jobs numbers as well and the confirmations that the Fed indeed is cutting,” said Kaneva.

The Fed’s long-anticipated pivot to looser monetary policy is widely expected to boost gold’s appeal compared with yield-bearing assets like bonds. Policymakers have said they needed to see more evidence that inflation is headed toward
its 2% target before lowering borrowing costs.


National Association of Realtors to cut commissions to settle lawsuits. Here's the financial impact.

(RE COMMISSIONS ARE COMING DOWN, FOLKS!

It could soon cost homeowners a lot less to sell their homes after a real estate trade group agreed to slash commissions to settle lawsuits against it.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) agreed on Friday to pay $418 million over roughly four years to resolve all claims against the group by home sellers related to broker commissions. The agreement must still be approved by a court.

Almost 9 in 10 home sales are handled by real estate agents affiliated with NAR. The organization, the country's largest trade association, requires home sellers to determine a commission rate, typically 6%, before listing homes on its property database, known as the Multiple Listing Service, or MLS.

The lawsuits argued that the structure harms competition and leads to higher prices.

"NAR has worked hard for years to resolve this litigation in a manner that benefits our members and American consumers. It has always been our goal to preserve consumer choice and protect our members to the greatest extent possible," NAR interim CEO Nykia Wright said in a statement Friday. "This settlement achieves both of those goals,"

How will this impact real estate commissions?
Notably, the landmark deal will slash realtors' standard 6% sales commission fee, potentially leading to significant savings for homeowners. The group had been found liable for inflating agent compensation.

Fees could be slashed by up to 30%, the New York Times reported, citing economists.

That could impact earnings for 1.6 million real estate agents, who could see their $100 billion annual commission pool shrink by about one-third, analysts with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods wrote in a report last year about the pending litigation.

Standard commission rates in the U.S. are among the highest in the world. Real estate agents make money by pocketing a percentage of a home's sale price.

Could homeowners save money?
Most likely, because homeowners are generally on the hook to pay the 6% commission when they sell their property, although sometimes the fee is split between the buyer and seller.

For instance, a homeowner selling a $1 million property would spend up to to $60,000 on agent fees. If commissions are reduced by 30%, that same homeowner would pay a commission of about $42,000.

How will it impact the housing market?
Housing experts expect the deal to shake up the housing market and even drive down home prices across the board.

Residential brokerage analyst Steve Murray, however, is skeptical that home prices will see a meaningful decrease as a result of the deal.

"It will have the impact of reducing commission costs for sellers; it will save money for sellers to the detriment of buyers," he said, adding, "Sellers don't set home prices based on what their closing costs will be," Murray said. "The market sets home prices."

While lower or more negotiable commission fees could incentivize some new homebuyers, LendingTree senior economist Jacob Channel doesn't expect the market to roar "back to life in the wake of this settlement," while mortgage rates remain high.

"Home prices and [mortgage] rates almost certainly play a much bigger role in someone's homebuying choices than how much they'll need to pay their real estate agent does," he said.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-banks-with-the-most-commercial-real-estate-exposure/

US, European Union React to BRICS Rapid Growth -watcher.guru

We have been warning about the impact of BRICS for some time now. The US has addressed the progression of BRICS where it can and the likely economic fallout their advancement represents. It would seem BRICS is moving along so quickly, there will be no catching up.

by Michael Grullon

BRICSThe BRICS bloc is ready to continue its expansion in 2024. Successfully inducting multiple new nations in January, the bloc is expected to invite more countries to join sometime this year. With more countries showing interest in BRICS and its missions, the United States and the European Union are facing a new developing threat.

BRICS is advancing at a rapid pace in its de-dollarization efforts by cutting ties with the US dollar. The new members have begun settling trade in local currencies by ending dependency on the greenback. Furthermore, India, China, Russia, and the UAE have started using their respective local currencies, reducing their reliance on the US dollar.

Multiple political/economic voices in the United have shared their concerns about the future of BRICS and its impact on the United States. As BRICS continues to grow, some are sure that its growth will pose an immediate threat.

US Politician Marco Rubio shared a warning to the US recently about BRICS, saying that its growth might interfere with the ability to exert sanctions on other nations. “If current trends continue, it will become harder and harder for the United States to prevent international violence and oppression through sanctions,” Rubio wrote in a recent op-ed article/open letter. 


Gold’s Got the Midas Touch Back - Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

After two years of trading in a 20% range between $1,600 and $2,000 per ounce, gold finally broke out to the upside, closing at a new all-time high of $2,126 per ounce on March 4.

Better yet, if you're a gold investor, gold has held its ground around $2,100 per ounce since breaking that ceiling (gold's trading at around $2,187 today).

The price is volatile, but gold broke even higher on March 5 when it hit $2,140 on an intra-day basis. Before getting too euphoric, gold investors should recall that the $800 per ounce record set in January 1980 during borderline hyperinflation would be $3,200 per ounce in today’s dollars if adjusted for inflation.

That can be a splash of cold water in the face. On the other hand, it's highly encouraging. If gold is in a new bull market, $3,200 per ounce looks more like a price target than an insurmountable hurdle.

But I continually remind gold investors, whether in bullion or mining shares, not to get too euphoric when gold rallies and not to get too depressed when the dollar price retreats. Gold is still the best form of money and proves valuable to investors over time.

The bigger questions are: What are the factors driving gold higher, and will they continue the trend? 


Central Banks Boost Gold Reserves to Diversify from the Dollar -Yahoo! Finance

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist

chartPowell might not be overly worried about inflation - with his recent comments reiterating the Federal Reserve is on track to cut rates this year - but other central banks are not so relaxed. Gold’s new high signals global central banks are likely accumulating the precious metal in an effort to diversify away from the dollar, as persistently large fiscal deficits threaten to further erode its real value and lead to more inflation.

Gold’s move in recent days has been broad as well as pronounced (as well as hinted at by low gold vol), with the precious metal making 50-year highs versus three-quarters of major DM and EM currencies. The biggest holdings of gold after jewellery are for private investment - ETFs, bars and coins - followed by central banks’ official reserve holdings.

In recent years the swing buyers have been ETFs, which hold about 2,500 tonnes of gold. But ETF holdings have been falling even as the dollar price of gold has been rising.

The dollar has been stable and real yields (which anyway have a non-linear relationship with gold) are higher over the last three months. The bulk of seasonal buying, for instance Diwali in India, is likely behind us. Further, silver has not participated in the rise. It’s therefore a reasonable supposition the official sector, i.e. central banks, has been a significant driver of gold’s recent ascent to new highs.

The 5 Charts The FDIC Doesn't Want You to See - Swiss America Daily News Digest Inbox

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-5-charts-fdic-does-not-want-you-paying-attention

Washington's "Problem Bank List" rose again last quarter, capping off a year when US lenders struggled to cope with higher interest rates and more overdue loans for commercial buildings and credit cards.

The FDIC's confidential tally of lenders with with financial, operational or managerial weaknesses had grown by eight banks to 52, representing 1.1% of the institutions it oversees. The total assets held by those firms increased by $12.8
billion last quarter to $66.3 billion.

Although the number of firms on the FDIC's list remains relatively low compared with historical highs, it continues an increasing trend that started early last year.

Always-friendly Senator Liz Warren lambasted Fed Chair Jay Powell today, claiming that "greedy bank executives" were behind bank failures, and the Fed needs to do its job of regulating those institutions.

Powell responded by saying they've reached out to banks with high levels of uninsured deposits and high levels of office real estate debt, adding that The Fed is examining whether they are "being truthful" with themselves.

With regard to being "truthful", as we detailed previously, many of the loans on banks' books are dramatically mispriced (over-valued):

"The worry now is that such firesales will set an example for other major investors seeking a way out of the turmoil too, forcing a wholesale crash in the Manhattan real estate market which until now had managed to avoid real price
discovery."

Warren responds by exclaiming that Powell has "gone weak-kneed" on bank regulation, concluding with this shot across the bow:

"the American people need a leader at the Fed who has the courage to stand up to these banks." 

Bank of America Issues Warning of a US Dollar Collapse -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

The US national debt is now growing by $1 trillion every 100 days since 2023. The uncontrolled debt could lead to a financial disaster wreaking havoc not only in the US but across the world. BRICS and other developing countries are worried that a US dollar debt could make their native economies crash. Keeping the US dollar in reserves is now seen as a threat that could undo years of financial stability.

The US dollar national debt now touched a new high of $34.4 trillion and is barely under control. Elected representatives at Capitol Hill and officials from the Federal Reserve are unable to tame the ever-growing debt.

Amid the economic turbulence, Bank of America has issued a warning about a possible US dollar collapse. Moreover, this allows BRICS to spread the de-dollarization initiative across the world.

BRICS: Growing Debt Risks Exposure of a US Dollar Collapse, Warns Bank of America

Bank of America warned in the latest piece that the US dollar and economy face a “blowout year” in 2024. The growing national debt is the main reason why the US economy could be poised to head south. “The US national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days,” Michael Hartnett, Chief Strategist of Bank of America wrote.

Hartnett warned that the collapse of the US dollar is imminent if the debt grows out of control this year. “This doesn’t end well,” wrote Genevieve Roch-Decter, a former Asset Manager at the Grit Capital. Also, BRICS is now waiting for a possible US dollar decline and could advance with a new currency in the global market.

Top real estate CEO warns ‘500 or more’ banks will either fail or be consolidated over the next two years -Yahoo! Finance

The talking heads at the Fed want us to believe our banking woes are behind us, but our clients continue to share their concerns that we've only seen the beginning. More and more experts in this sector are sounding an alarm that the coming commercial real estate correction will be devastating for banks. We tend to agree.

by Will Daniel

Ever since four regional banks holding a combined $532 billion in assets—headlined by Silicon Valley Bank—failed in March 2023, regional banks have been under scrutiny from regulators. And given the commercial real estate (CRE) industry’s issues, a key focus has been on banks with the most exposure to the volatile sector.

In an upcoming white paper seen exclusively by Fortune, RXR CEO Scott Rechler described how regional banks will face a “slow-moving train wreck” as waves of commercial real estate loans mature over the next few years. Rechler has faith that many commercial real estate owners, operators, and lenders will figure out a way to overcome the challenges facing them, but he’s more skeptical about regional banks. “I think there's going to be…500 or more fewer banks in the U.S. over the next two years,” he said. “I'm not saying they're all going to fail, but they're going to be forced into consolidation if they don't fail.”

“They don't have a business model that's going to enable them to stand alone, and be competitive, and retain deposits and service customers the way that they have,” he added.

Regulators’ fears about regional banks with exposure to CRE aren’t unfounded, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) being the prime example. Shares of NYCB have plummeted roughly 78% from their July 2023 peak due to concerns over the bank’s CRE exposure. The pain accelerated after NYCB reported a surprise fourth-quarter loss and slashed its dividend on Jan. 31, 2024, because it had to put away more money to cover its CRE holdings.

For Rechler, regional banks’ CRE exposure could even end up being a “systemic issue.”

$1 Trillion in 100 Days! -Daily Reckoning

What used to take 205 years, now takes 100 days! This sounds like an innovation in efficiency, but sadly, it's just the astounding growth rate of the US debt. Can we continue on this trajectory? It seems impossible, but when have you ever known the government to slow down spending?

by Brian Maher

How does a man descend into bankruptcy?

Gradually — then suddenly — in Mr. Hemingway’s famous telling.

The United States government has passed beyond bankruptcy’s gradual phase.

It has entered bankruptcy’s sudden phase.

Mr. Michael Hartnett, Bank of America’s chief strategist:

“The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days.”

United States debt first scaled $1 trillion 205 years after its inception. And today?

The work of 205 years presently reduces to 100 days.

$1 trillion every 100 days? Impossible — but there you have it: Debt Goes Exponential

And so today a pearl of sorrow courses down our crimson cheek… a mournful tear upon the ashes of the nation’s finances.

We fear its debt is assuming the hellacious form of a parabola.

That is, the business begins to assume an exponential aspect.

If only the nation’s gross domestic product could maintain pace with its parabolic and exponential debt.

It cannot… alas.

As gold scales all-time highs, Wall Street analysts say it has even further to go

Gold is headed higher and it's not stopping soon. As we kick off a very uncertain year, gold should shine until at least November, and likely even longer based on who is elected.

by Jenni Reid

Gold prices pushed higher Tuesday after futures pricing for the precious metal notched fresh records in the previous two sessions — with analysts seeing strength lasting at least into the second half of the year.

The gold contract for April on Monday closed above $2,100 per ounce for the first time, and was up 0.37% at $2,134.2 at 1:15 p.m. in London. Spot gold was trading 0.7% higher at $2,129, though market-watchers note that in real terms, adjusted for inflation, gold is well below past peaks.

In a Monday note, analysts at Citi described themselves as “medium-term bullion bulls,” calling a 25% probability of gold averaging a record $2,300 per ounce in the second half. Their base case remains $2,150, and they reiterated a “wildcard” call for trade reaching $3,000 over the next 12 to 16 months.

Citi describes gold as a developed market “recession hedge,” and increasingly see tailwinds from uncertainty around the U.S. election in November.

Analysts at Berenberg also noted Monday that a Donald Trump victory in the election would provide a “major positive for gold,” with further support for the safe-haven asset from volatility around the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza

America on Eve of Banking Crisis, Warns Ex-IMF Official, With Hundreds of Lenders at Risk of Failure -The Daily Hodl

by Alex Richardson

A former IMF official believes the U.S. Federal Reserve has pushed America to the brink of another banking crisis.

Desmond Lachman, who was deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department, says in a new blog post for public policy think tank The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) that Fed Chair
Jerome Powell is “inviting a banking crisis.”

With banks already under pressure, Lachman says the Fed is making matters worse by keeping monetary policy tight, and liquidity thin.

The ex-IMF official says it’s a mistake that’s significantly raised the odds of a hard landing for the US economy while pushing lenders to the eve of a fresh banking crisis.

“In 2021, the Fed chose to ignore the markedly expansionary fiscal policy stance when it kept flooding the market with liquidity. The net result was a surge in inflation by June 2022 to a multi-decade high of over 9%.

Today, it seems to be making the opposite mistake of keeping monetary policy tight on the eve of a banking crisis at home and a weakening economic situation abroad. Unfortunately, this raises the risk of a hard economic landing within
the next year or so.”

Lachman warns that commercial real estate, which makes up a major portion of US banks’ loan portfolios, is a clear Achilles heel for the industry that could result in the failure of around 385 small and medium-sized banks. 


https://tinyurl.com/2rd9wv52


OPPORTUNITY TO ACCESS MARK LEIBOVIT'S PROPRIETARY VOLUME REVERSAL INDICATOR - THIS IS THE ONLY PLACE TO DO IT!

https://www.metastock.com/products/thirdparty/?3PC-ADD-VRIS



COME ON, DAD. IT'S TIME TO EAT

DISCLAIMER:

WE ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND DO NOT PROVIDE FINANCIAL ADVICE

The website, LeibovitVRNewsletters.com, is published by LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC.

In using LeibovitVRnewsletters.com (a/k/a LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC) you agree to these Terms & Conditions governing the use of the service. These Terms & Conditions are subject to change without notice. We are publishers and are not registered as a broker-dealer or investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities authority.

All stocks and ETFs discussed are HYPOTHETICAL and not actual trades whose actual execution may differ markedly from prices posted on the website and in emails. This may be due internet connectivity, quote delays, data entry errors and other market conditions. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations as to liquidity and execution among other variables. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR PROFITABLE TRADING RESULTS.

All investments are subject to risk, which should be considered on an individual basis before making any investment decision. We are not responsible for errors and omissions. These publications are intended solely for information and educational purposes only and the content within is not to be construed, under any circumstances, as an offer to buy or to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell or trade in any commodities or securities named within.

All commentary is provided for educational purposes only. This material is based upon information we consider reliable. However, accuracy is not guaranteed.  Subscribers should always do their own investigation before investing in any security. Furthermore, you cannot be assured that your will profit or that any losses can or will be limited. It is important to know that no guarantee of any kind is implied nor possible where projections of future conditions in the markets are attempted. 

Stocks and ETFs may be held by principals of LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC whose personal investment decisions including entry and exit points may differ from guidelines posted.

LeibovitVRNewsletters.com cannot and do not assess, verify or guarantee the suitability or profitability of any particular investment. You bear responsibility for your own investment research and decisions and should seek the advice of a  qualified securities professional before making any investment. As an express condition of using this service and anytime after ending the service, you agree not to hold LeibovitVRNewsletters.com or any employees liable for trading losses, lost profits or other damages resulting from your use of information on the Site in any form (Web-based, email-based, or downloadable software), and you agree to indemnify and hold LeibovitVRNewsletters.com and its employees harmless from and against any and all claims, losses, liabilities, costs, and expenses (including but not limited to attorneys' fees) arising from your violation of this agreement. This paragraph is not intended to limit rights available  to you or to us that may be available under the federal securities laws.

For rights, permissions, subscription and customer service, contact the publisher at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com or call at 928-282-1275 or mail to 10632 N. Scottsdale Road B-426, Scottsdale, AZ 85254.

The Leibovit Volume Reversal, Volume Reversal and Leibovit VR are registered trademarks.

© Copyright 2024.  All rights reserved.

1303, 2024

WELCOME TO LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS - THURSDAY - MARCH 14, 2024 - THE IDES OF MARCH APPROACH

March 13th, 2024|0 Comments

HISTORICALLY A GOOD SIGN OF A MARKET TOP = BULLISH MEDIA HEADLINES LIKE THIS

BULL TRAP STILL UNDERWAY

It symbolizes power, good fortune, and strength and is associated with auspicious traits like intelligence, ambition and charisma. Historically linked with imperial power, Chinese emperors considered themselves descendants of dragons, emphasizing the dragon's esteemed position.


THE VR FORECASTER - ANNUAL FORECAST MODEL 

ORDER TODAY AND WE WILL MANUALLY EMAIL YOU THE REPORT BEFORE IT IS POSTED ON THE WEBSITE

HERE IS THE 2023 ANNUAL FORECAST MODEL WITH THE 'RESULTS' SUPERIMPOSED

HERE IS THE 2023 ANNUAL FORECAST MODEL FOR BITCOIN WITH THE 'RESULTS' SUPERIMPOSED

ORDER PAGE

http://tinyurl.com/5f7wb6zs


https://www.howestreet.com/2024/03/gold-bitcoin-us-dollar-mark-leibovit/

NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY EVENING


 

DID YOU MISS THE WEDNESDAY'S METASTOCK  MARK LEIBOVIT WEBINAR - POWERPOINT?

 

https://tinyurl.com/yc45s35c


Nasdaq, S&P 500 Give Back Ground But Dow Closes Higher For Third Straight Session

Following the significant rebound seen during Tuesday's session, stocks turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Wednesday. The major averages spent most of the day on opposite sides of the unchanged line before closing mixed.

While the Dow inched up 37.83 points or 0.1 percent to 39,043.32, closing higher for the third consecutive session, the S&P 500 dipped 9.96 points or 0.2 percent to 5,165.31 and the Nasdaq slid 87.87 points or 0.5 percent to 16,177.77.

The pullback by the Nasdaq partly reflected weakness in the tech sector, with AI darling Nvidia (NVDA) slumping by 1.1 percent.

Overall trading activity remained somewhat subdued, however, as a lack of major U.S. economic kept some traders on the sidelines ahead of the release of several key reports in the coming days.

On Thursday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its report on producer price inflation in the month of February, which may shed additional light on the outlook for interest rates.

Producer prices are expected to rise by 0.3 percent in February, matching the increase seen in January, while the annual rate of producer price growth is expected to accelerate to 1.1 percent from 0 .9 percent.

Reports on weekly jobless claims and retail sales are also due to be released on Thursday, with retail sales expected to rebound in February after slumping in January.

On Friday, trading may be impacted by reaction to reports on import and export prices, industrial production and consumer sentiment.

The University of Michigan's preliminary report on consumer sentiment in March may be in focus, as it includes reading on inflation expectations.

Sector News

Most of the major sectors showed only modest moves on the day, contributing to the lackluster performance by the broader markets.

Energy stocks saw considerable strength, however, with a sharp increase by the price of crude oil contributing to the strength in the sector.

With crude for April delivery spiking $2.16 to $79.72 a barrel, the NYSE Arca Oil Index surged by 2.3 percent and the Philadelphia Oil Service Index shot up by 1.9 percent.

An increase by the price of gold also contributed to considerable strength among gold stocks, as reflected by the 2.2 percent jump by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index.

On the other hand, semiconductor stocks showed a significant move to the downside, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down by 2.5 percent.

Other Markets

In overseas trading, stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region ended mixed once again on Wednesday. While China's Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4 percent and Japan's Nikkei 225 Index dipped by 0.3 percent, South Korea's Kospi climbed by 0.4 percent.

Meanwhile, European stocks moved mostly higher on the day. The French CAC 40 Index advanced by 0.6 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.3 percent, although the German DAX Index closed just below the unchanged line.

In the bond market, treasuries are extending the pullback seen over the two previous sessions. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 3.7 basis points to 4.192 percent.

Looking Ahead

While the producer price inflation data is likely to be in the spotlight on Thursday, trading could also be impacted by reaction to the jobless claims and retail sales data.

 


US, European Union React to BRICS Rapid Growth -watcher.guru

We have been warning about the impact of BRICS for some time now. The US has addressed the progression of BRICS where it can and the likely economic fallout their advancement represents. It would seem BRICS is moving along so quickly, there will be no catching up.

by Michael Grullon

BRICSThe BRICS bloc is ready to continue its expansion in 2024. Successfully inducting multiple new nations in January, the bloc is expected to invite more countries to join sometime this year. With more countries showing interest in BRICS and its missions, the United States and the European Union are facing a new developing threat.

BRICS is advancing at a rapid pace in its de-dollarization efforts by cutting ties with the US dollar. The new members have begun settling trade in local currencies by ending dependency on the greenback. Furthermore, India, China, Russia, and the UAE have started using their respective local currencies, reducing their reliance on the US dollar.

Multiple political/economic voices in the United have shared their concerns about the future of BRICS and its impact on the United States. As BRICS continues to grow, some are sure that its growth will pose an immediate threat.

US Politician Marco Rubio shared a warning to the US recently about BRICS, saying that its growth might interfere with the ability to exert sanctions on other nations. “If current trends continue, it will become harder and harder for the United States to prevent international violence and oppression through sanctions,” Rubio wrote in a recent op-ed article/open letter. 

 


 

Gold’s Got the Midas Touch Back - Daily Reckoning

by James Rickards

After two years of trading in a 20% range between $1,600 and $2,000 per ounce, gold finally broke out to the upside, closing at a new all-time high of $2,126 per ounce on March 4.

Better yet, if you're a gold investor, gold has held its ground around $2,100 per ounce since breaking that ceiling (gold's trading at around $2,187 today).

The price is volatile, but gold broke even higher on March 5 when it hit $2,140 on an intra-day basis. Before getting too euphoric, gold investors should recall that the $800 per ounce record set in January 1980 during borderline hyperinflation would be $3,200 per ounce in today’s dollars if adjusted for inflation.

That can be a splash of cold water in the face. On the other hand, it's highly encouraging. If gold is in a new bull market, $3,200 per ounce looks more like a price target than an insurmountable hurdle.

But I continually remind gold investors, whether in bullion or mining shares, not to get too euphoric when gold rallies and not to get too depressed when the dollar price retreats. Gold is still the best form of money and proves valuable to investors over time.

The bigger questions are: What are the factors driving gold higher, and will they continue the trend? 


Central Banks Boost Gold Reserves to Diversify from the Dollar -Yahoo! Finance

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist

chartPowell might not be overly worried about inflation - with his recent comments reiterating the Federal Reserve is on track to cut rates this year - but other central banks are not so relaxed. Gold’s new high signals global central banks are likely accumulating the precious metal in an effort to diversify away from the dollar, as persistently large fiscal deficits threaten to further erode its real value and lead to more inflation.

Gold’s move in recent days has been broad as well as pronounced (as well as hinted at by low gold vol), with the precious metal making 50-year highs versus three-quarters of major DM and EM currencies. The biggest holdings of gold after jewellery are for private investment - ETFs, bars and coins - followed by central banks’ official reserve holdings.

In recent years the swing buyers have been ETFs, which hold about 2,500 tonnes of gold. But ETF holdings have been falling even as the dollar price of gold has been rising.

The dollar has been stable and real yields (which anyway have a non-linear relationship with gold) are higher over the last three months. The bulk of seasonal buying, for instance Diwali in India, is likely behind us. Further, silver has not participated in the rise. It’s therefore a reasonable supposition the official sector, i.e. central banks, has been a significant driver of gold’s recent ascent to new highs.

The 5 Charts The FDIC Doesn't Want You to See - Swiss America Daily News Digest Inbox

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-5-charts-fdic-does-not-want-you-paying-attention

Washington's "Problem Bank List" rose again last quarter, capping off a year when US lenders struggled to cope with higher interest rates and more overdue loans for commercial buildings and credit cards.

The FDIC's confidential tally of lenders with with financial, operational or managerial weaknesses had grown by eight banks to 52, representing 1.1% of the institutions it oversees. The total assets held by those firms increased by $12.8
billion last quarter to $66.3 billion.

Although the number of firms on the FDIC's list remains relatively low compared with historical highs, it continues an increasing trend that started early last year.

Always-friendly Senator Liz Warren lambasted Fed Chair Jay Powell today, claiming that "greedy bank executives" were behind bank failures, and the Fed needs to do its job of regulating those institutions.

Powell responded by saying they've reached out to banks with high levels of uninsured deposits and high levels of office real estate debt, adding that The Fed is examining whether they are "being truthful" with themselves.

With regard to being "truthful", as we detailed previously, many of the loans on banks' books are dramatically mispriced (over-valued):

"The worry now is that such firesales will set an example for other major investors seeking a way out of the turmoil too, forcing a wholesale crash in the Manhattan real estate market which until now had managed to avoid real price
discovery."

Warren responds by exclaiming that Powell has "gone weak-kneed" on bank regulation, concluding with this shot across the bow:

"the American people need a leader at the Fed who has the courage to stand up to these banks." 

Bank of America Issues Warning of a US Dollar Collapse -watcher.guru

by Vinod Dsouza

The US national debt is now growing by $1 trillion every 100 days since 2023. The uncontrolled debt could lead to a financial disaster wreaking havoc not only in the US but across the world. BRICS and other developing countries are worried that a US dollar debt could make their native economies crash. Keeping the US dollar in reserves is now seen as a threat that could undo years of financial stability.

The US dollar national debt now touched a new high of $34.4 trillion and is barely under control. Elected representatives at Capitol Hill and officials from the Federal Reserve are unable to tame the ever-growing debt.

Amid the economic turbulence, Bank of America has issued a warning about a possible US dollar collapse. Moreover, this allows BRICS to spread the de-dollarization initiative across the world.

BRICS: Growing Debt Risks Exposure of a US Dollar Collapse, Warns Bank of America

Bank of America warned in the latest piece that the US dollar and economy face a “blowout year” in 2024. The growing national debt is the main reason why the US economy could be poised to head south. “The US national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days,” Michael Hartnett, Chief Strategist of Bank of America wrote.

Hartnett warned that the collapse of the US dollar is imminent if the debt grows out of control this year. “This doesn’t end well,” wrote Genevieve Roch-Decter, a former Asset Manager at the Grit Capital. Also, BRICS is now waiting for a possible US dollar decline and could advance with a new currency in the global market.

Top real estate CEO warns ‘500 or more’ banks will either fail or be consolidated over the next two years -Yahoo! Finance

The talking heads at the Fed want us to believe our banking woes are behind us, but our clients continue to share their concerns that we've only seen the beginning. More and more experts in this sector are sounding an alarm that the coming commercial real estate correction will be devastating for banks. We tend to agree.

by Will Daniel

Ever since four regional banks holding a combined $532 billion in assets—headlined by Silicon Valley Bank—failed in March 2023, regional banks have been under scrutiny from regulators. And given the commercial real estate (CRE) industry’s issues, a key focus has been on banks with the most exposure to the volatile sector.

In an upcoming white paper seen exclusively by Fortune, RXR CEO Scott Rechler described how regional banks will face a “slow-moving train wreck” as waves of commercial real estate loans mature over the next few years. Rechler has faith that many commercial real estate owners, operators, and lenders will figure out a way to overcome the challenges facing them, but he’s more skeptical about regional banks. “I think there's going to be…500 or more fewer banks in the U.S. over the next two years,” he said. “I'm not saying they're all going to fail, but they're going to be forced into consolidation if they don't fail.”

“They don't have a business model that's going to enable them to stand alone, and be competitive, and retain deposits and service customers the way that they have,” he added.

Regulators’ fears about regional banks with exposure to CRE aren’t unfounded, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) being the prime example. Shares of NYCB have plummeted roughly 78% from their July 2023 peak due to concerns over the bank’s CRE exposure. The pain accelerated after NYCB reported a surprise fourth-quarter loss and slashed its dividend on Jan. 31, 2024, because it had to put away more money to cover its CRE holdings.

For Rechler, regional banks’ CRE exposure could even end up being a “systemic issue.”

$1 Trillion in 100 Days! -Daily Reckoning

What used to take 205 years, now takes 100 days! This sounds like an innovation in efficiency, but sadly, it's just the astounding growth rate of the US debt. Can we continue on this trajectory? It seems impossible, but when have you ever known the government to slow down spending?

by Brian Maher

How does a man descend into bankruptcy?

Gradually — then suddenly — in Mr. Hemingway’s famous telling.

The United States government has passed beyond bankruptcy’s gradual phase.

It has entered bankruptcy’s sudden phase.

Mr. Michael Hartnett, Bank of America’s chief strategist:

“The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion every 100 days.”

United States debt first scaled $1 trillion 205 years after its inception. And today?

The work of 205 years presently reduces to 100 days.

$1 trillion every 100 days? Impossible — but there you have it: Debt Goes Exponential

And so today a pearl of sorrow courses down our crimson cheek… a mournful tear upon the ashes of the nation’s finances.

We fear its debt is assuming the hellacious form of a parabola.

That is, the business begins to assume an exponential aspect.

If only the nation’s gross domestic product could maintain pace with its parabolic and exponential debt.

It cannot… alas.

As gold scales all-time highs, Wall Street analysts say it has even further to go

Gold is headed higher and it's not stopping soon. As we kick off a very uncertain year, gold should shine until at least November, and likely even longer based on who is elected.

by Jenni Reid

Gold prices pushed higher Tuesday after futures pricing for the precious metal notched fresh records in the previous two sessions — with analysts seeing strength lasting at least into the second half of the year.

The gold contract for April on Monday closed above $2,100 per ounce for the first time, and was up 0.37% at $2,134.2 at 1:15 p.m. in London. Spot gold was trading 0.7% higher at $2,129, though market-watchers note that in real terms, adjusted for inflation, gold is well below past peaks.

In a Monday note, analysts at Citi described themselves as “medium-term bullion bulls,” calling a 25% probability of gold averaging a record $2,300 per ounce in the second half. Their base case remains $2,150, and they reiterated a “wildcard” call for trade reaching $3,000 over the next 12 to 16 months.

Citi describes gold as a developed market “recession hedge,” and increasingly see tailwinds from uncertainty around the U.S. election in November.

Analysts at Berenberg also noted Monday that a Donald Trump victory in the election would provide a “major positive for gold,” with further support for the safe-haven asset from volatility around the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza

America on Eve of Banking Crisis, Warns Ex-IMF Official, With Hundreds of Lenders at Risk of Failure -The Daily Hodl

by Alex Richardson

A former IMF official believes the U.S. Federal Reserve has pushed America to the brink of another banking crisis.

Desmond Lachman, who was deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department, says in a new blog post for public policy think tank The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) that Fed Chair
Jerome Powell is “inviting a banking crisis.”

With banks already under pressure, Lachman says the Fed is making matters worse by keeping monetary policy tight, and liquidity thin.

The ex-IMF official says it’s a mistake that’s significantly raised the odds of a hard landing for the US economy while pushing lenders to the eve of a fresh banking crisis.

“In 2021, the Fed chose to ignore the markedly expansionary fiscal policy stance when it kept flooding the market with liquidity. The net result was a surge in inflation by June 2022 to a multi-decade high of over 9%.

Today, it seems to be making the opposite mistake of keeping monetary policy tight on the eve of a banking crisis at home and a weakening economic situation abroad. Unfortunately, this raises the risk of a hard economic landing within
the next year or so.”

Lachman warns that commercial real estate, which makes up a major portion of US banks’ loan portfolios, is a clear Achilles heel for the industry that could result in the failure of around 385 small and medium-sized banks. 


https://tinyurl.com/2rd9wv52


OPPORTUNITY TO ACCESS MARK LEIBOVIT'S PROPRIETARY VOLUME REVERSAL INDICATOR - THIS IS THE ONLY PLACE TO DO IT!

https://www.metastock.com/products/thirdparty/?3PC-ADD-VRIS



COME ON, DAD. IT'S TIME TO EAT

DISCLAIMER:

WE ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND DO NOT PROVIDE FINANCIAL ADVICE

The website, LeibovitVRNewsletters.com, is published by LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC.

In using LeibovitVRnewsletters.com (a/k/a LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC) you agree to these Terms & Conditions governing the use of the service. These Terms & Conditions are subject to change without notice. We are publishers and are not registered as a broker-dealer or investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities authority.

All stocks and ETFs discussed are HYPOTHETICAL and not actual trades whose actual execution may differ markedly from prices posted on the website and in emails. This may be due internet connectivity, quote delays, data entry errors and other market conditions. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations as to liquidity and execution among other variables. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR PROFITABLE TRADING RESULTS.

All investments are subject to risk, which should be considered on an individual basis before making any investment decision. We are not responsible for errors and omissions. These publications are intended solely for information and educational purposes only and the content within is not to be construed, under any circumstances, as an offer to buy or to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell or trade in any commodities or securities named within.

All commentary is provided for educational purposes only. This material is based upon information we consider reliable. However, accuracy is not guaranteed.  Subscribers should always do their own investigation before investing in any security. Furthermore, you cannot be assured that your will profit or that any losses can or will be limited. It is important to know that no guarantee of any kind is implied nor possible where projections of future conditions in the markets are attempted. 

Stocks and ETFs may be held by principals of LeibovitVRNewsletters LLC whose personal investment decisions including entry and exit points may differ from guidelines posted.

LeibovitVRNewsletters.com cannot and do not assess, verify or guarantee the suitability or profitability of any particular investment. You bear responsibility for your own investment research and decisions and should seek the advice of a  qualified securities professional before making any investment. As an express condition of using this service and anytime after ending the service, you agree not to hold LeibovitVRNewsletters.com or any employees liable for trading losses, lost profits or other damages resulting from your use of information on the Site in any form (Web-based, email-based, or downloadable software), and you agree to indemnify and hold LeibovitVRNewsletters.com and its employees harmless from and against any and all claims, losses, liabilities, costs, and expenses (including but not limited to attorneys' fees) arising from your violation of this agreement. This paragraph is not intended to limit rights available  to you or to us that may be available under the federal securities laws.

For rights, permissions, subscription and customer service, contact the publisher at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com or call at 928-282-1275 or mail to 10632 N. Scottsdale Road B-426, Scottsdale, AZ 85254.

The Leibovit Volume Reversal, Volume Reversal and Leibovit VR are registered trademarks.

© Copyright 2024.  All rights reserved.

[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

Go to Top