In Ernest Hemingway's 1926 novel The Sun Also Rises, a character named Mike Campell is asked how he lost his fortune.
"How did you go bankrupt?" the hard-drinking war veteran Bill Gorton asks.
"Two ways," Campell replies. "Gradually and then suddenly."
At first the selling was hidden in the lesser looked at indices like the NYSE Composite and Russell 2000. But then it spread to the highly promoted ones like the DJI and S&P 500.
Is now the time to jump back into the markets and buy? Or is this simply a pause before another big onslaught of selling?
As you know, August has been a terrible month for the bulls who believed the "new bull market" narrative that was being promoted all over the financial media.
The incredible manipulation out there is a wonder to behold. The financial media continues to pound the table that the bullish answer lies with the FED lowering interest rates while Mrs. O'Leary's cow has thrown over the lantern in her barn.
Ignoring geocosmic or geopolitcal events, everything will be Hunky Dory which is part and parcel of this mental illness. The financial media does a terrible job in reporting and I laugh watching them in action everyday. I guess this makes their sponsors happy and it also caters to the leaders (the real leaders) in the media who have a good job in destroying news reporting. I won't get into this more here. I have a degree in Broadcast Journalism. Putin said he was going to invade Ukraine and he did. President Xi said he will take Taiwan. It could come sooner than you think. And, we are not even discussing North Korea, Iran, Iran-Israel, social unrest across the planet and a surge in sudden geocosmic disasters.
It's now clear that the US government is waging warfare against its own people, and that the torching of Lahaina -- which led to numerous deaths, many children burnt alive -- was deliberately allowed to happen.Under the corrupt Biden regime, terrorism, psychological warfare and depopulation agendas are being accelerated against the American people, in accelerating attacks targeting towns, farms, food supply hubs and energy infrastructure. You are living in a war zone. Don't forget about the Ohio train incident!
The SPX is headed down to around 4200 or possibly much lower, but there is a persistent almost insane investor and money manager confidence regarding their bullish strategy and that the FED will reduce rates and that all is well with the world - this fuels speculative interest in trading the long side, especially AI. The Street's darling NVDA will either be 350 or 500 when earnings are reported on August 23.
You know what I think of government statistics and the financial media reports, but I guess optimism is the key to staying for them to stay in business!
A lot of negative news out of China. J.P. Morgan Chase analysts this week cut their annual growth forecast for China from May's estimate of 6.4 percent to 4.8 percent. Next year is seen as coming in even weaker, at 4.2 percent. Nomura said it sees a bigger downside risk to its forecast of 4.9 percent growth. Some speculate that economic weakness in China could drive them to push for war. War is good for business. On the other hand, It's likely only a matter of time before the Chinese state steps in with a much bigger economic intervention. Indeed, outside of China, banks are basically calling for a bailout of the economy.
THIS PAST WEEK IN BITCOIN
Crypto’s in the News:
August 18, 2022 – Elon Musk’s SpaceX is among many alleged culprits behind a seismic crypto market crash on Thursday, which has triggered over $1 billion in liquidations over the past 24 hours. Here's the latest. Bitcoin (BTC)’s sudden collapse to nearly $25,300 shortly followed the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published a report offering rare insight into the privately owned aerospace company’s financials. The report said that SpaceX “wrote down the value of bitcoin it owns by a total of $373 million last year and in 2021 and has sold the cryptocurrency.”
August 18, 2022 – Analysts at investment bank JMP Securities have said that an approval received by Coinbase to offer crypto futures trading can be taken as evidence of crypto’s resilience in the US. In a note to clients that was cited by The Block, the analysts said the approval "adds validation" to the domestic crypto sector in the US and is a step on the way in countering a narrative that the American crypto industry is being pushed offshore. The JMP Securities analysts, led by Devin Ryan, also said the approval strengthens Coinbase’s position in its ongoing legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). “This development also appears to provide another good example of the regulatory moat that we believe Coinbase is forming, which we think will become even more apparent as the industry eventually moves to the other side of the uncertainty of the moment — which is our expectation,” The Block cited the note as saying.
CME FED WATCH TOOL
U.S. stocks turned in a mixed performance on Friday with investors largely staying cautious amid concerns the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates higher for longer to control inflation.
Worries about slowing Chinese economy, hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting, and higher bond yields had pushed the market down in the previous two sessions.
Among the major averages, the Dow and the S&P 500 moved mostly along the flat line for much of the day's trading session, while the Nasdaq recovered gradually from a weak start.
The Dow ended the session with a gain of 25.83 points or 0.07 percent at 34,500.66. The S&P 500 ended little changed at 4,369.71, while the Nasdaq finished with a loss of 26.16 points or 0.2 percent at 13,290.78.
The Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq shed about 2.2 percent, 2.1 percent, and 2.6%, respectively.
Wallgreens Boots Alliance and 3M declined 2.2 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.
Alphabet ended 1.9 percent down, and Meta Platforms declined 0.65 percent, while Apple ended modestly higher.
Discount store Ross Stores shares rallied 5 percent after the company raised its annual sales and profit forecasts.
Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs, 3M, Amgen, Travelers Companies, Microsoft, Nike and Caterpillar posted modest losses.
Walmart climbed nearly 1.5 percent, rebounding from recent losses. Boeing, Chevron, Coca-Cola, Cisco Systems and IBM gained 0.5 to 1 percent.
In overseas trading, Asian stocks ended mostly lower on Friday amid lingering worries about the Chinese economy and higher interest rates.
The dollar and Treasury yields fell slightly from recent highs, helping limit regional losses to some extent.
European stocks closed lower on Friday as growth worries and concerns about monetary tightening continued to deter investors from indulging any significant buying, and look to lighten positions instead.
In addition to assessing the likely interest rate-path of central banks, investors also digested the latest batch of economic data from Europe and the U.S.
The pan European Stoxx 600 declined 0.61 percent. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX both dropped 0.65 percent, and France's CAC 40 ended down 0.38 percent.
The Canadian market ended slightly up on Friday after a somewhat lackluster session, as investors stayed cautious amid fears of interest rate hikes, and on concerns about the health of the Chinese economy.
The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index, which fell to 19,683.85 in early trades, ended the day with a small gain of 6.16 points or 0.03% at 19,818.39. The index shed about 2.9% in the week.
Energy, healthcare and utilities shares found support. Shares from the rest of the sectors closed on a mixed note.
On the economic front, data from Statistics Canada showed industrial producer prices in Canada rose by 0.4% over the previous month in July, rebounding from the 0.6% decline in the previous month. Producer prices in Canada decreased 2.7% in July over the same month in the previous year.
Meanwhile, raw materials prices increased in July, the data showed. The Raw Materials Price Index rose by 3.5% in the month, after an upwardly revised 2% fall in June. Year-on-year, raw materials prices plunged 11.1% in July.
SHORT VTI AND LONG SH.
TLRY LOOKS LIKE A $3-4 STOCK
X - US STEEL CONSOLIDATING. HIGHER BID LIKELY COMING. MID 30s POSSIBLE
SPX SPDR ON A LEIBOVIT VR DAILY CHART - COULD WE DECLINE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE RED/GREEN LINES WAY BELOW?
CRUDE OIL READYING FOR ANOTHER UPLEG
NEW MOON HELPED CONFIRM A PEAK. FULL MOON AHEAD ON THE 30TH
More Volatility implies more downside risk
WE ARE LONG UNG
SUMMER SOLSTICE IS BEHIND US OR IS IT? DID IT COINCIDE WITH AN INTERMEDIATE MARKET TOP? NEXT SEASONAL FOCUS IS ON THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX SEPTEMBER 22-23. THEORETICAL MARKET LOW!
What about the January Barometer?
The January Barometer calls for a positive year-end outcome, but a lot can happen between now and then. Please check with previous editions discussing the calculation of the Barometer.
ADAPTIVE CHANNELS: OIL -UPTREND IN FORCE
ADAPTIVE CHANNELS GLD - UPTREND IN FORCE BUT WE ARE FILLING THAT GAP
CONFIDENCE INDEX (NEW HERE). STILL IN AN UPTREND
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX ETF - RALLIED TO RESISTANCE AND BREAKING THROUGH TO THE UPSIDE.
TREASURY BONDS TLT ETF - BONDS REFLECTING A HAWKISH FED
XLE - ENERGY ETF REMAINS STRONG
USO - CRUDE OIL - UPTREND CLEARLY ABOVE 200 WEEK MA. $200 OIL AHEAD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS IMHO
GLD - CORRECTION CONTINUES - WATCHING US DOLLAR WHICH IS STRONG AND A NEGATIVE FOR GOLD. ALSO, THE GAP AT 173.85 IS YET TO BE CLOSED.
GDX - FLIRTING WITH SUPPORT BUT NO CLEAR SIGN OF REVERSAL BACK TO THE UPSIDE
SIVR - CORRECTION CONTINUES - WATCHING US DOLLAR
URA - GLOBAL X URANIUM ETF - STILL TRACKING SIDEWAYS BUT IN AN OVERALL UPTREND
LIT - GLOBAL X LITHIUM ETF - LITHIUM STOCKS HAVE APPARENTLY DISCOUNTED THE FUTURE A LITTLE. LEIBOVIT NEGATIVE VR HAS FORMED AS HIGH-TECHS LIKE TSLA CORRECT.
GBTC - BITCOIN CORRECTING RUNUP.
WHAT ARE THE ODDS THE FED WILL HIKE RATES? WHAT ARE THE ODDS THE SUN WILL RISE TOMORROW?
MARK LEIBOVIT INTERVIEW WITH MICHAEL CAMPBELL - JULY 29
Gold and the 'G7 of the East' - Richard Mills -Ahead of the Herd
EDITOR'S NOTE: This article outlines the long, calculated move out of US dollars into gold by the East. These small but
significant moves have been happening for years creating the proverbial frog in the pot: we don't realize the water is boiling
yet, but it's only a matter of time until it does.
The dollar is the most important unit of account for international trade, the main medium of exchange for settling
international transactions, and the store of value for central banks.
Lately though, "de-dollarization" is being pursued by countries with agendas at odds with the US, including Russia, China, Saudi
Arabia and Iran.
As the target of US economic sanctions (for annexing Crimea, interfering in its election, and invading Ukraine), Russia sees
diversification from the dollar and into gold and other currencies, as a way of skirting trade restrictions.
In 2021, China trimmed its holdings of US Treasuries for four straight months, in what analysts called a move to prevent
potential adverse impact from escalating China-US tensions.
China actually started to move away from the dollar in 2014, agreeing with Brazil on a $29 billion currency swap to promote the
Chinese yuan as a reserve currency. The Chinese and Russian central banks signed an agreement on yuan-rouble swaps to double
trade between the two countries. The $150 billion deal is a way for Russia to move away from US dollar-dominated settlements.
A few years ago China came up with a new crude oil futures contract, priced in yuan and convertible into gold. The Shanghai-based
contract allows oil exporters like Russia and Iran to dodge US sanctions against them by trading oil in yuan rather than US
The President's Working Group on Financial Markets
known colloquially as the Plunge Protection Team, or "(PPT)" was created by Executive Order 12631, signed on March 18, 1988, by United States President Ronald Reagan.
As established by the executive order, the Working Group has three purposes and functions:
"(a) Recognizing the goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence, the Working Group shall identify and consider:
(1) the major issues raised by the numerous studies on the events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987, and any of those recommendations that have the potential to achieve the goals noted above; and
(2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations.
(b) The Working Group shall consult, as appropriate, with representatives of the various exchanges, clearinghouses, self-regulatory bodies, and with major market participants to determine private sector solutions wherever possible.
(c) The Working Group shall report to the President initially within 60 days (and periodically thereafter) on its progress and, if appropriate, its views on any recommended legislative changes."
Plunge Protection Team
"Plunge Protection Team" was originally the headline for an article in The Washington Post on February 23, 1997, and has since been used by some as an informal term to refer to the Working Group. Initially, the term was used to express the opinion that the Working Group was being used to prop up the stock markets during downturns.[5 Financial writers for British newspapers The Observer and The Daily Telegraph, along with U.S. Congressman Ron Paul, writers Kevin Phillips (who claims "no personal firsthand knowledge" and John Crudele, have charged the Working Group with going beyond their legal mandate.[failed verification] Charles Biderman, head of TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks money flow in the equities market, suspected that following the 2008 financial crisis the Federal Reserve or U.S. government was supporting the stock market. He stated that "If the money to boost stock prices did not come from the traditional players, it had to have come from somewhere else" and "Why not support the stock market as well? Moreover, several officials have suggested the government should support stock prices."
In August 2005, Sprott Asset Management released a report that argued that there is little doubt that the PPT intervened to protect the stock market. However, these articles usually refer to the Working Group using moral suasion to attempt to convince banks to buy stock index futures.
Former Federal Reserve Board member Robert Heller, in the Wall Street Journal, opined that "Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole." Author Kevin Phillips wrote in his 2008 book Bad Money that while he had no interest "in becoming a conspiracy investigator", he nevertheless drew the conclusion that "some kind of high-level decision seems to have been reached in Washington to loosely institutionalize a rescue mechanism for the stock market akin to that pursued...to safeguard major U.S. banks from exposure to domestic and foreign loan and currency crises." Phillips infers that the simplest way for the Working Group to intervene in market plunges would be through buying stock market index futures contracts, either in cooperation with major banks or through trading desks at the U.S. Treasury or Federal Reserve.
Larry Fink & George Soros: Are They Destroying America
In this short clip, Patrick Bet-David and Joe Rogan discuss Larry Fink & George Soros.
There’s A Lot You Don’t Know About The US Space Force: Big Take Podcast
FROM 2007 - REP RON PAUL:
IT IS TIME TO REPEAL THE 16TH AMENDMENT - THE ONE THAT CREATES INCOME TAX
THE CASE FOR ABOLISHING THE FEDERAL RESERVE
G EDWARD GRIFFIN
WE ARE NOT FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND DO NOT PROVIDE FINANCIAL ADVICE
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WHO IS MARK LEIBOVIT?
MARK LEIBOVIT is Chief Market Strategist for LEIBOVIT VR NEWSLETTERS a/k/a VRTrader.Com. His technical expertise is in overall market timing and stock selection based upon his proprietary VOLUME REVERSAL (TM) methodology and Annual Forecast Model.
Mark's extensive media television profile includes seven years as a consultant ‘Elf’ on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week” television program, and over thirty years as a Market Monitor guest for PBS “The Nightly Business Report”. He also has appeared on Fox Business News, CNBC, BNN (Canada), and Bloomberg, and has been interviewed in Barrons, Business Week, Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks.
In the January 2, 2020 edition of TIMER DIGEST MAGAZINE, Mark Leibovit was ranked the #1 U.S. Stock Market Timer and was previously ranked #1 Intermediate U.S. Market Timer for the ten year period December, 1997 to 2007.
He was a 'Market Maker' on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Midwest Options Exchange and then went on to work in the Research department of two Chicago based brokerage firms. Mr. Leibovit now publishes a series of newsletters at www.LeibovitVRNewsletters.com. He became a member of the Market Technicians Association in 1982.
Mr. Leibovit’s specialty is Volume Analysis and his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. He has historical experience recognizing, bull and bear markets and signaling alerts prior to market crashes. His indicator is currently available on the Metastock, and TradeStation platforms.
His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis, The Trader’s Book of Volume published by McGraw-Hill is a definitive guide to volume trading. It is now also published in Chinese. Mark has appeared in speaking engagements and seminars in the U.S. and Canada.
OPPORTUNITY TO ACCESS MARK LEIBOVIT'S PROPRIETARY VOLUME REVERSAL INDICATOR - THIS IS THE ONLY PLACE TO DO IT!
COME ON, DAD. IT'S TIME TO EAT